Chance mechanisms affecting the burden of metastases

BACKGROUND: The burden of cancer metastases within an individual is commonly used to clinically characterize a tumor's biological behavior. Assessments like these implicitly assume that spurious effects can be discounted. Here the influence of chance on the burden of metastasis is studied to determine whether or not this assumption is valid. METHODS: Monte Carlo simulations were performed to estimate tumor burdens sustained by individuals with cancer, based upon empirically derived and validated models for the number and size distributions of metastases. Factors related to the intrinsic metastatic potential of tumors and their host microenvironments were kept constant, to more clearly demonstrate the contribution from chance. RESULTS: Under otherwise identical conditions, both the simulated numbers and the sizes of metastases were highly variable. Comparable individuals could sustain anywhere from no metastases to scores of metastases, and the sizes of the metastases ranged from microscopic to macroscopic. Despite the marked variability in the number and sizes of the metastases, their respective growth times were rather more narrowly distributed. In such situations multiple occult metastases could develop into fully overt lesions within a comparatively short time period. CONCLUSION: Chance can have a major effect on the burden of metastases. Random variability can be so great as to make individual assessments of tumor biology unreliable, yet constrained enough to lead to the apparently simultaneous appearance of multiple overt metastases

Childhood Asthma and Environmental Exposures at Swimming Pools: State of the Science and Research Recommendations

OBJECTIVES: Recent studies have explored the potential for swimming pool disinfection by-products (DBPs), which are respiratory irritants, to cause asthma in young children. Here we describe the state of the science on methods for understanding children's exposure to DBPs and biologics at swimming pools and associations with new-onset childhood asthma and recommend a research agenda to improve our understanding of this issue. DATA SOURCES: A workshop was held in Leuven, Belgium, 21-23 August 2007, to evaluate the literature and to develop a research agenda to better understand children's exposures in the swimming pool environment and their potential associations with new-onset asthma. Participants, including clinicians, epidemiologists, exposure scientists, pool operations experts, and chemists, reviewed the literature, prepared background summaries, and held extensive discussions on the relevant published studies, knowledge of asthma characterization and exposures at swimming pools, and epidemiologic study designs. SYNTHESIS: Childhood swimming and new-onset childhood asthma have clear implications for public health. If attendance at indoor pools increases risk of childhood asthma, then concerns are warranted and action is necessary. If there is no such relationship, these concerns could unnecessarily deter children from indoor swimming and/or compromise water disinfection. CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence of an association between childhood swimming and new-onset asthma is suggestive but not conclusive. Important data gaps need to be filled, particularly in exposure assessment and characterization of asthma in the very young. Participants recommended that additional evaluations using a multidisciplinary approach are needed to determine whether a clear association exists

Molecular Subtype Classification Is a Determinant of Non-Sentinel Lymph Node Metastasis in Breast Cancer Patients with Positive Sentinel Lymph Nodes

Background: Previous studies suggested that the molecular subtypes were strongly associated with sentinel lymph node (SLN) status. The purpose of this study was to determine whether molecular subtype classification was associated with nonsentinel lymph nodes (NSLN) metastasis in patients with a positive SLN. Methodology and Principal Findings: Between January 2001 and March 2011, a total of 130 patients with a positive SLN were recruited. All these patients underwent a complete axillary lymph node dissection. The univariate and multivariate analyses of NSLN metastasis were performed. In univariate and multivariate analyses, large tumor size, macrometastasis and high tumor grade were all significant risk factors of NSLN metastasis in patients with a positive SLN. In univariate analysis, luminal B subgroup showed higher rate of NSLN metastasis than other subgroup (P = 0.027). When other variables were adjusted in multivariate analysis, the molecular subtype classification was a determinant of NSLN metastasis. Relative to triple negative subgroup, both luminal A (P = 0.047) and luminal B (P = 0.010) subgroups showed a higher risk of NSLN metastasis. Otherwise, HER2 over-expression subgroup did not have a higher risk than triple negative subgroup (P = 0.183). The area under the curve (AUC) value was 0.8095 for the Cambridge model. When molecular subtype classification was added to the Cambridge model, the AUC value was 0.8475. Conclusions: Except for other factors, molecular subtype classification was a determinant of NSLN metastasis in patient