41 research outputs found
Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting
The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood,
limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and
regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta
caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.
Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic
processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This
novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest
Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean
conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the
observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance,
climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and
future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic
conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are
mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be
significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may
increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts,
but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine
organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments
of marine turtle population variability and persistence