Time from infection with HIV to onset of AIDS in patients with haemophilia in the UK.

The two-stage parametric regression model of Brookmeyer and Goedert has been adapted and fitted to data on the development of AIDS in haemophiliacs in the UK who are seropositive for HIV. The risk of developing AIDS by a given time following seroconversion increases with increasing age at seroconversion. It is likely that the risk increases smoothly with age, although the data have been analysed in three age categories, and it is estimated that by seven years after seroconversion 6 per cent of patients aged under 25 at seroconversion, 20 per cent of those aged 25-44 and 34 per cent of those aged 45 or more have developed AIDS. For a given age at seroconversion the annual risk of developing AIDS increases with increasing time after seroconversion, and at seven years the annual risks of developing AIDS during the next year in the three age groups are estimated to be 2 per cent for those aged less than 25 at seroconversion, and 10 and 11 per cent respectively for those aged 25-44 and 45 or more

Importance of age at infection with HIV-1 for survival and development of AIDS in UK haemophilia population

Background. Greater age at infection with HIV-1 is known to be associated with shorter time to development of AIDS, but the size of the differences between people infected in infancy and those infected in old age has not been examined in a single large population of patients with death as an endpoint. We, therefore, investigated the role of age at seroconversion in the entire UK population of haemophiliacs. Methods. We studied 1216 HIV-l-infected haemophilia patients in the UK who were registered with the National Haemophilia Register and were alive on Jan 1, 1985. Their estimated ages at HIV-1 seroconversion ranged from 8 months to 79 years. Findings. 10 years after seroconversion 67% (95% CI 64-69) of the population were still alive, Survival was strongly related to age at seroconversion (86% [82-90], 72% [68-76], 45% [39-51], and 12% [5-21] at 10 years among those patients who seroconverted at ages < 15, 15-34, 35-54, and ≥ 55). This steep age-gradient in survival was not explained by deaths expected in the absence of HIV infection or by confounding with other factors such as haemophilia type or severity. The age-gradient was steeper for survival (ie, time from HIV-1 infection to death) than for time to diagnosis of AIDS, partly because survival after an AIDS diagnosis was poorer in older patients, and there was also a substantial increase in mortality among HIV-infected patients who did not satisfy the formal AIDS definition and this increase was greater in older patients. Interpretation. Age at infection with HIV-1 is a more important determinant of survival than has previously been appreciated. Age should, therefore, be considered in future studies of disease progression, and studies that compare people infected at different ages should provide insight into the biology of the immune response to HIV-1

Importance of age at infection with HIV-1 for survival and development of AIDS in UK haemophilia population. UK Haemophilia Centre Directors' Organisation.

BACKGROUND: Greater age at infection with HIV-1 is known to be associated with shorter time to development of AIDS, but the size of the differences between people infected in infancy and those infected in old age has not been examined in a single large population of patients with death as an endpoint. We, therefore, investigated the role of age at seroconversion in the entire UK population of haemophiliacs. METHODS: We studied 1216 HIV-1-infected haemophilia patients in the UK who were registered with the National Haemophilia Register and were alive on Jan 1, 1985. Their estimated ages at HIV-1 seroconversion ranged from 8 months to 79 years. FINDINGS: 10 years after seroconversion 67% (95% Cl 64-69) of the population were still alive. Survival was strongly related to age at seroconversion (86% [82-90], 72% [68-76], 45% [39-51], and 12% [5-21] at 10 years among those patients who seroconverted at ages < 15, 15-34, 35-54, and > or = 55). This steep age-gradient in survival was not explained by deaths expected in the absence of HIV infection or by confounding with other factors such as haemophilia type or severity. The age-gradient was steeper for survival (ie, time from HIV-1 infection to death) than for time to diagnosis of AIDS, partly because survival after an AIDS diagnosis was poorer in older patients, and there was also a substantial increase in mortality among HIV-infected patients who did not satisfy the formal AIDS definition and this increase was greater in older patients. INTERPRETATION: Age at infection with HIV-1 is a more important determinant of survival than has previously been appreciated. Age should, therefore, be considered in future studies of disease progression, and studies that compare people infected at different ages should provide insight into the biology of the immune response to HIV-1

HIV-1 gag-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes defined with recombinant vaccinia virus and synthetic peptides.

Current candidate vaccines fail to protect primates against challenge with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the presence of antibody responses; this underlines the importance of studying cell-mediated immunity to HIV and identifying specific epitopes that stimulate cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL). Using a recombinant vaccinia virus to express the gag protein of HIV-1 we found HLA class-I-restricted gag-specific CTL in thirteen out of fifteen healthy HIV seropositive patients. We then used short synthetic peptides in the lysis assay to screen for gag CTL epitopes. In one patient we have identified a peptide in p24 that is recognized by CTL in association with HLA-B27. This peptide, and further peptide sequences defined by these methods, could be incorporated in vaccines designed to induce cell-mediated immunity against HIV

Mortality before and after HIV infection in the complete UK population of haemophiliacs. UK Haemophilia Centre Directors' Organisation.

During 1977-91, 6,278 males diagnosed with haemophilia were living in the UK. During 1979-86, 1,227 were infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) as a result of transfusion therapy (median estimated seroconversion date, October 1982). Among 2,448 with severe haemophilia, the annual death rate was stable at 8 per 1,000 during 1977-84; during 1985-92 death rates remained at 8 per 1,000 among HIV-seronegative patients but rose steeply in seropositive patients, reaching 81 per 1,000 in 1991-92. Among 3,830 with mild or moderate haemophilia, the pattern was similar, with an initial death rate of 4 per 1,000 in 1977-84, rising to 85 per 1,000 in 1991-92 in seropositive patients. During 1985-92, there were 403 deaths in HIV seropositive patients, whereas 60 would have been predicted from rates in seronegatives, suggesting that 85% of the deaths in seropositive patients were due to HIV infection. Most of the excess deaths were certified as due to AIDS or to conditions recognized as being associated with AIDS