Elimination of onchocerciasis in Ecuador: findings of post-treatment surveillance.

BACKGROUND: The Esmeraldas focus of onchocerciasis in Ecuador expanded geographically during the 1980s and was associated with severe ocular and skin disease. Mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin started in 1991, initially once but later twice a year, in the principle endemic focus followed by all satellite foci. Treatment was stopped in 2009 when entomological assessments determined that transmission of Onchocerca volvulus had been interrupted. METHODS: Three years after the cessation of ivermectin treatment in 2012, as defined by the WHO guidelines for onchocerciasis elimination, blackfly collections were done in four sentinel sites in former hyperendemic areas. The presence of infective larvae in local vectors, Simulium exiguum and Simulum quadrivittatum, was assessed by detection of O. volvulus DNA by PCR. Additional flies captured in four extra-sentinel sites located in former hyper- and mesoendemic dispersed isolated areas were also assessed. RESULTS: The results from 68,310 captured blackflies, 40,114 from four sentinel villages in the previously hyperendemic areas (Corriente Grande, El Tigre, San Miguel on Río Cayapas and Naranjal on Río Canandé) and 28,197 from extra-sentinel locations, were all negative for the presence of O. volvulus. These extra-sentinel sites (Hualpí on Río Hoja Blanca, Capulí on Río Onzole, La Ceiba on Río Tululví and Medianía on Río Verde) were included to provide additional evidence of the impact of MDA on the transmission of O. volvulus in isolated endemic areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that transmission of O. volvulus has been stopped in all endemic areas in Ecuador, including all satellite foci outside the main focus. These findings indicate that a strategy of ivermectin distribution twice a year to over 85% of the treatment-eligible population was effective in eliminating the infection from Ecuador in a focus with a highly competent primary vector, S. exiguum, and where the infection rates were equal to or greater than observed in many onchocerciasis foci in Africa

Is time-variant information stickiness state-dependent?

This paper estimates information stickiness with regard to inflation expectations in the United States and the Eurozone for the 1981/06–2015/12 and 1998/Q4–2015/Q2 periods, respectively, and further investigates whether such information stickiness is state- dependent. Based on a bootstrap sub-sample rolling-window estimation, we find that information stickiness varies over time, which contradicts the strict time dependency implied under sticky-information theory. We provide evidence that information stickiness depends on inflation volatility, which indicates that information stickiness is state-dependent and that it has a time trend. Using a threshold model, we estimate structural changes in the state- dependence and time-trend of information stickiness. The results show that information stickiness has been more dependent on inflation volatility and has had a higher time-trend in both regions following the 2008 financial crisis.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Stock market booms, endogenous credit creation and the implications of broad and narrow banking for macroeconomic stability

In this paper we study the implications of the present broad banking system for macroeconomic stability. We show that when commercial banks are allowed to trade in financial assets (here equities) as a substitute for traditional lending, the macroeconomic system is likely to be an unstable one. We then consider a narrow banking system defined by a Fisherian 100 percent reserve ratio for checkable deposits and the ban for commercial banks from trading in stocks and other financial assets. Within the stylized theoretical framework set up here, we show that in the second system macroeconomic stability is guaranteed by some weak assumptions on the behavior of economic agents. Moreover, while a sufficient loan supply can be guaranteed in such a framework, the rationale for bank runs can be eliminated, in contrast to what is likely to happen under traditional broad banking. Though narrow banking is an extreme banking system unlikely to be adopted in the short-run, its features highlight the stability and efficiency properties that the separation between commercial and investment banking bring about. © 2012 Elsevier B.V

Credit-Driven Investment, Heterogeneous Labor Markets and Macroeconomic Dynamics

In this paper we set up a baseline, but nevertheless advanced and complete model representing detailed goods market dynamics, heterogeneous labor markets, dual and cross-dual wage-price adjustment processes, as well as counter-cyclical government policies. The cyclical movements of output generate, through Okun’s law, employment variations in the heterogeneous labor market. The core of the resulting Keynesian macrodynamics is however given by credit-financed investment behavior and loan-rate setting by credit suppliers. The framework is constructed in such way that simplified, lower dimensional versions of the model can be obtained by setting parameters describing specific feedback effects from one sector to another equal to zero. Starting from such low dimensional sub-dynamics, we show the local stability of the full 7D model through a “cascade of stable matrices” approach if the feedback chains are sufficiently tranquil in their transmission mechanisms. However, local stability is the point of departure for the numerical investigation of local explosiveness and the forces that can bound such a behavior

(De-)Stabilizing two-country macroeconomic interactions in an estimated model of the U.S. and the Euro Area

(D)AS-AD, Monetary policy, International transmission mechanisms, Wage- and price inflation dynamics, Instability, E12, E31, F41,