Economics of Robust Surveillance on Exotic Animal Diseases: the Case of Bluetongue

Control of emerging animal diseases critically depends on their early detection. However, designing surveillance programs for exotic and emerging diseases is very challenging because of knowledge gaps on the probability of incursion and mechanisms of spread. Using the example of Bluetongue Virus, which is exotic to the UK, we develop a metapopulation epidemic-economic modelling framework that considers the incursion, detection, spread and control of a disease in a livestock production system composed of heterogeneous subpopulations. The model is then embedded in an information gap (info-gap) framework to assess the robustness of surveillance and vaccination policies to unacceptable outbreaks losses and applied to the case of Bluetongue in the UK. The results show that active reporting of suspect clinical signs by farmers is a very robust way to reduce unacceptable outcomes. Vaccination of animals in high risk regions led to robustly protective programs. If vaccines are not available, surveillance targeted to the high risk region is very robust even if the extent of the high risk region is not known and effectiveness of detection is very low. Surveillance programs focusing in all regions with the same intensity are in general not robust unless the dispersal of the vector connecting both regions is very high.compartmental epidemic model, emergent animal disease, Knightian uncertainty, sentinel surveillance system, Livestock Production/Industries,

Inoculation of the Leishmania infantum HSP70-II null mutant induces long-term protection against L. amazonensis infection in BALB/c mice

Leishmania amazonensis parasites are etiological agents of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the New World. BALB/c mice are highly susceptible to L. amazonensis challenge due to their inability to mount parasite-dependent IFN-γ-mediated responses. Here, we analyzed the capacity of a single administration of the LiΔHSP70-II genetically-modified attenuated L. infantum line in preventing cutaneous leishmaniasis in mice challenged with L. amazonensis virulent parasites. In previous studies, this live attenuated vaccine has demonstrated to induce long-protection against murine leishmaniasis due to Old World Leishmania species. Vaccinated mice showed a reduction in the disease evolution due to L. amazonensis challenge, namely reduction in cutaneous lesions and parasite burdens. In contrast to control animals, after the challenge, protected mice showed anti-Leishmania IgG2a circulating antibodies accompanied to the induction of Leishmania-driven specific IFN-γ systemic response. An analysis performed in the lymph node draining the site of infection revealed an increase of the parasite-specific IFN-ϒ production by CD4+ and CD8+ T cells and a decrease in the secretion of IL-10 against leishmanial antigens. Since the immunity caused by the inoculation of this live vaccine generates protection against different forms of murine leishmaniasis, we postulate LiΔHSP70-II as a candidate for the development of human vaccines.This research was funded by grants from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación FISPI11/00095 and FISPI14/00366 (FEDER FUNDING) to M.S. and RYC-2016-19463 and RTI2018-343 to S.I. J.M.R. and M.S. are funded by the Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias (ISCIII-RETICRD16/0027/008-FEDER). E.H.G. is supported by a FPI grant from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación. Institutional grants from the Fundación Ramón Areces and Banco de Santander to the CBMSO are also acknowledged. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewe

How Fast Can We Multiply Large Integers on an Actual Computer?

We provide two complexity measures that can be used to measure the running time of algorithms to compute multiplications of long integers. The random access machine with unit or logarithmic cost is not adequate for measuring the complexity of a task like multiplication of long integers. The Turing machine is more useful here, but fails to take into account the multiplication instruction for short integers, which is available on physical computing devices. An interesting outcome is that the proposed refined complexity measures do not rank the well known multiplication algorithms the same way as the Turing machine model.Comment: To appear in the proceedings of Latin 2014. Springer LNCS 839

Operationalising and measuring language dominance

The paper offers a new way to measure language ability in bilinguals, based on measures of lexical richness. The validity of proposed approach is tested in a variety of ways

Acute coronary syndrome in patients younger than 30 years--aetiologies, baseline characteristics and long-term clinical outcome.

Coronary atherosclerosis begins early in life, but acute coronary syndromes in adults aged <30 years are exceptional. We aimed to investigate the rate of occurrence, clinical and angiographic characteristics, and long-term clinical outcome of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in young patients who were referred to two Swiss hospitals. From 1994 to 2010, data on all patients with ACS aged <30 years were retrospectively retrieved from our database and the patients were contacted by phone or physician's visit. Baseline, lesion and procedural characteristics, and clinical outcome were compared between patients in whom an underlying atypical aetiology was found (non-ATS group; ATS: atherosclerosis) and patients in whom no such aetiology was detected (ATS group). The clinical endpoint was freedom from any major adverse cardiac event (MACE) during follow-up. A total of 27 young patients with ACS aged <30 years were admitted during the study period. They accounted for 0.05% of all coronary angiograms performed. Mean patient age was 26.8 ± 3.5 years and 22 patients (81%) were men. Current smoking (81%) and dyslipidaemia (59%) were the most frequent risk factors. Typical chest pain (n = 23; 85%) and ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI; n = 18 [67%]) were most often found. The ATS group consisted of 17 patients (63%) and the non-ATS group of 10 patients (37%). Hereditary thrombophilia was the most frequently encountered atypical aetiology (n = 4; 15%). At 5 years, mortality and MACE rate were 7% and 19%, respectively. ACS in young patients is an uncommon condition with a variety of possible aetiologies and distinct risk factors. In-hospital and 5-year clinical outcome is satisfactory

Helium-cluster decay widths of molecular states in beryllium and carbon isotopes

The $\alpha$ particle and $^6$He emissions from possible molecular states in beryllium and carbon isotopes have been studied using a mean-field-type cluster potential. Calculations can reproduce well the $\alpha$-decay widths of excited states in $^{8}$Be, $^{12}$C and $^{20}$Ne. For the nucleus $^{10}$Be, we discussed the $\alpha$-decay widths with different shapes or decay modes, in order to understand the very different decay widths of two excited states. The widths of $^{6}$He decay from $^{12}$Be and $\alpha$ decays from $^{13,14}$C are predicted, which could be useful for future experiments.Comment: 12 pgaes, 1 figur

The complications of ‘hiring a hubby’: gender relations and the commoditisation of home maintenance in New Zealand

This paper examines the commoditization of traditionally male domestic tasks through interviews with handymen who own franchises in the company ‘Hire a Hubby’ in New Zealand and homeowners who have paid for home repair tasks to be done. Discussions of the commoditization of traditionally female tasks in the home have revealed the emotional conflicts of paying others to care as well as the exploitative and degrading conditions that often arise when work takes place behind closed doors. By examining the working conditions and relationships involved when traditionally male tasks are paid for, this paper raises important questions about the valuing of reproductive labour and the production of gendered identities. The paper argues that while working conditions and rates of pay for ‘hubbies’ are better than those for people undertaking commoditized forms of traditionally female domestic labour, the negotiation of this work is still complex and implicated in gendered relations and identities. Working on the home was described by interviewees as an expression of care for family and a performance of the ‘right’ way to be a ‘Kiwi bloke’ and a father. Paying others to do this labour can imply a failure in a duty of care and in the performance of masculinity

B(E1) Strengths from Coulomb Excitation of 11Be

The $B$(E1;$1/2^+\to1/2^-$) strength for $^{11}$Be has been extracted from intermediate energy Coulomb excitation measurements, over a range of beam energies using a new reaction model, the extended continuum discretized coupled channels (XCDCC) method. In addition, a measurement of the excitation cross section for $^{11}$Be+$^{208}$Pb at 38.6 MeV/nucleon is reported. The $B$(E1) strength of 0.105(12) e$^2$fm$^2$ derived from this measurement is consistent with those made previously at 60 and 64 MeV/nucleon, i n contrast to an anomalously low result obtained at 43 MeV/nucleon. By coupling a multi-configuration description of the projectile structure with realistic reaction theory, the XCDCC model provides for the first time a fully quantum mechanical description of Coulomb excitation. The XCDCC calculations reveal that the excitation process involves significant contributions from nuclear, continuum, and higher-order effects. An analysis of the present and two earlier intermediate energy measurements yields a combined B(E1) strength of 0.105(7) e$^2$fm$^2$. This value is in good agreement with the value deduced independently from the lifetime of the $1/2^-$ state in $^{11}$Be, and has a comparable p recision.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Lett.