Analysis of trends and forecasting of tuberculosis mortality at the regional level

The aim of the study was to analyse trends and forecasting of tuberculosis mortality at the regional level by use of mathematical methods: linear regression and model based on artificial intelligence machine learning and to compare the results of accuracy of prognosis. The analysis of the constructed trends showed that in the Sverdlovsk region over the past 10 years there has been a stable statistically reliable trend towards a decrease in the mortality rate from tuberculosis with an average rate of decrease of -10.5% per year. As of the end of 2022, in the Sverdlovsk region, the studied indicator decreased by 66.9% compared to the baseline level of 2012.The forecast using regression allowed us to obtain values of indicators close enough to the actual ones, however, it is linear and overly optimistic, assuming zero mortality from infection in the coming years, which cannot be reliable due to the sufficient number of tuberculosis patients whose probability of death is not zero. A dynamic simulation model based on machine learning is a more complex and subtle forecasting tool that takes into account many factors, allows you to obtain relevant values of predicted indicators, but it requires increased accuracy which can be achieved by additional training, which will require search for additional factors affecting tuberculosis mortality

Lead Isotopic Characteristics and Metal Sources for the Jewelry in the Medieval Rural Settlements from the Suzdal Region (Kievan Rus’)

The article considers the results of the study of lead isotope composition of 38 non-ferrous artifacts discovered at medieval rural sites of the Suzdal Region (Kievan Rus’). The copper-alloy, silver and pewter artifacts were compared with reference data from geographically and temporally diverse medieval artifacts and ore deposits and revealed differing source regions and supply networks within and between metal types. The identification in some cases was difficult due to the conformity of the lead isotopic composition of deposits of some regions. The copper-alloys, represented mostly by crosses made of high-tin bronze, show close isotopic parallels to contemporary copper alloys from Southern Scandinavia, Westphalia and Lower Saxony. Since the copper alloys contain significant quantities of lead, this lead may have entered the metal by alloying with lead-tin alloys, by smelting mixed copper-lead ore, or through haphazard alloying with lead. The lead isotope ratios for nearly all copper alloys are consistent with deposits in Cornwall and Devon and remobilized ore from the Rhenish Massif. For silver and lead-tin alloy objects, lead isotope analyses point to wide ranging sources. Most silver objects are consistent with mid-to-late 10th century silver stocks circulating in the Baltic area and 10th century Volga-Bulgar silver dirham imitations probably representing mixtures of 9th-10th century Islamic silver. The silver shows a heavy reliance on 10th century mixed stocks and there are little indications of Central and Western European silver, which was common in the 11th century Baltic region. The pewter and lead, however, indicate other sources. Lead isotope ratios are consistent with sources connected to Mediterranean and Baltic networks, some being consistent with sources in England, but it is possible that the lead found in some pewter objects could come from the Olkusz lead district in southern Poland.

Thermodynamic Behaviors of Adsorbed Methane Storage Systems Based on Nanoporous Carbon Adsorbents Prepared from Coconut Shells

The present work focused on the experimental study of the performance of a scaled system of adsorbed natural gas (ANG) storage and transportation based on carbon adsorbents. For this purpose, three different samples of activated carbons (AC) were prepared by varying the size of coconut shell char granules and steam activation conditions. The parameters of their porous structure, morphology, and chemical composition were determined from the nitrogen adsorption at 77 K, X-ray diffraction (XRD), small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) measurements. The methane adsorption data measured within the temperature range from 178 to 360 K and at pressures up to 25 MPa enabled us to identify the most efficient adsorbent among the studied materials: AC-90S. The differential heats of methane adsorption on AC-90S were determined in order to simulate the gas charge/discharge processes in the ANG system using a mathematical model with consideration for thermal effects. The results of simulating the charge/discharge processes under two different conditions of heat exchange are consistent with the experimentally determined temperature distribution over a scaled ANG storage tank filled with the compacted AC-90S adsorbent and equipped with temperature sensors and heat-exchanger devices. The amounts of methane delivered from the ANG storage system employing AC-90S as an adsorbent differ from the model predictions by 4–6%. Both the experiments and mathematical modeling showed that the thermal regulation of the ANG storage tank ensured the higher rates of charge/discharge processes compared to the thermal insulation