Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, and GJR model, are used to investigate the relationship between crude oil price and six global fertilizer prices. Weekly data for 2003-2008 for the seven price series are analyzed. The empirical results from ARDL show that most fertilizer prices are significantly affected by the crude oil price, which explains why global fertilizer prices reached a peak in 2008. We also find that that the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in other periods, and that the peak crude oil price caused greater volatility in the crude oil price and global fertilizer prices. As volatility invokes financial risk, the relationship between oil price and global fertilizer prices and their associated volatility is important for public policy relating to the development of optimal energy use, global agricultural production, and financial integration.volatility;crude oil price;global fertilizer price;non-renewable fertilizers;structural breakpoint unit root test

Nonlinear analysis of an axisymmetric structure subjected to non-axisymmetric loading

The development of the SHELPC finite element computer program is detailed. This program is specialized to simulate the nonlinear material behavior which results from combustor liner hot streaks. This problem produces a nonlinear Fourier Series type loading on an axisymmetric structure. Example cases are presented

The 3D inelastic analysis methods for hot section components

Advanced 3-D inelastic structural/stress analysis methods and solution strategies for more accurate and yet more cost-effective analysis of combustors, turbine blades, and vanes are being developed. The approach is to develop four different theories, one linear and three higher order with increasing complexities including embedded singularities. Progress in each area is reported

Embedded epitaxial growth of low-threshold GaInAsP/InP injection lasers

Single-growth liquid-phase embedded epitaxy in the GaInAsP/InP system is described, and a new heterostructure laser is grown using this technique. These lasers exhibit excellent current and optical confinement. Threshold currents as low as 45 mA are achieved for a laser with 4-mm-wide active region

Globalization and Knowledge Spillover: International Direct Investment, Exports and Patents

This paper examines the impact of the three main channels of international trade on domestic innovation, namely outward direct investment, inward direct investment (IDI) and exports. The number of Triadic patents serves as a proxy for innovation. The data set contains 37 countries that are considered to be highly competitive in the world market, covering the period 1994 to 2005. The empirical results show that increased exports and outward direct investment are able to stimulate an increase in patent output. In contrast, IDI exhibits a negative relationship with domestic patents. The paper shows that the impact of IDI on domestic innovation is characterized by two forces, and the positive effect of cross-border mergers and acquisitions by foreigners is less than the negative effect of the remaining IDI.R&D;export;international direct investment;inward direct investment;negative binomial model;triadic patent;outward direct investment

Coupled structural/thermal/electromagnetic analysis/tailoring of graded composite structures

Accomplishments are described for the first year effort of a 5-year program to develop a methodology for coupled structural/thermal/electromagnetic analysis/tailoring of graded composite structures. These accomplishments include: (1) the results of the selective literature survey; (2) 8-, 16-, and 20-noded isoparametric plate and shell elements; (3) large deformation structural analysis; (4) eigenanalysis; (5) anisotropic heat transfer analysis; and (6) anisotropic electromagnetic analysis

Low density expansion and isospin dependence of nuclear energy functional: comparison between relativistic and Skyrme models

In the present work we take the non relativistic limit of relativistic models and compare the obtained functionals with the usual Skyrme parametrization. Relativistic models with both constant couplings and with density dependent couplings are considered. While some models present very good results already at the lowest order in the density, models with non-linear terms only reproduce the energy functional if higher order terms are taken into account in the expansion.Comment: 16 pages,6 figures,5 table