Patient outcomes up to 15 years after stroke: survival, disability, quality of life, cognition and mental health

BACKGROUND: The global epidemiological shift of disease burden towards long-term conditions means understanding long-term outcomes of cardiovascular disease is increasingly important. More people are surviving stroke to experience its long-term consequences, but outcomes in people living more >10 years after stroke have not been described in detail. METHODS: Data were collected for the population-based South London Stroke Register, with participants followed up annually until death. Outcomes were survival, disability, activity, cognitive impairment, quality of life, depression and anxiety. FINDINGS: Of 2625 people having first-ever stroke, 262 (21%) survived to 15 years. By 15 years, 61% (95% CI 55% to 67%) of the survivors were male, with a median age of stroke onset of 58 years (IQR 48-66). 87% of the 15-year survivors were living at home and 33.8% (26.2% to 42.4%) had mild disability, 14.3% (9.2% to 21.4%) moderate disability and 15.0% (9.9% to 22.3%) severe disability. The prevalence of disability increased with time but 1 in 10 of the 15-year survivors had lived with moderate-severe disability since their stroke. At 15 years, the prevalence of cognitive impairment was 30.0% (19.5% to 43.1%), depression 39.1% (30.9% to 47.9%) and anxiety 34.9% (27.0% to 43.8%), and survivors reported greater loss of physical than mental quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: One in five people live at least 15 years after a stroke and poor functional, cognitive and psychological outcomes affect a substantial proportion of these long-term survivors. As the global population of individuals with cardiovascular long-term conditions grows, research and health services will need to increasingly focus on preventing and managing the long-term consequences of stroke

Patient, carer and public involvement in major system change in acute stroke services: The construction of value

BACKGROUND: Patient and public involvement is required where changes to care provided by the UK National Health Service are proposed. Yet involvement is characterized by ambiguity about its rationales, methods and impact. AIMS: To understand how patients and carers were involved in major system changes (MSCs) to the delivery of acute stroke care in 2 English cities, and what kinds of effects involvement was thought to produce. METHODS: Analysis of documents from both MSC projects, and retrospective in-depth interviews with 45 purposively selected individuals (providers, commissioners, third-sector employees) involved in the MSC. RESULTS: Involvement was enacted through consultation exercises; lay membership of governance structures; and elicitation of patient perspectives. Interviewees' views of involvement in these MSCs varied, reflecting different views of involvement per se, and of implicit quality criteria. The value of involvement lay not in its contribution to acute service redesign but in its facilitation of the changes developed by professionals. We propose 3 conceptual categories-agitation management, verification and substantiation-to identify types of process through which involvement was seen to facilitate system change. DISCUSSION: Involvement was seen to have strategic and intrinsic value. Its strategic value lay in facilitating the implementation of a model of care that aimed to deliver evidence-based care to all; its intrinsic value was in the idea of citizen participation in change processes as an end in its own right. The concept of value, rather than impact, may provide greater traction in analyses of contemporary involvement practices

The potential role of cost-utility analysis in the decision to implement major system change in acute stroke services in metropolitan areas in England

BACKGROUND: The economic implications of major system change are an important component of the decision to implement health service reconfigurations. Little is known about how best to report the results of economic evaluations of major system change to inform decision-makers. Reconfiguration of acute stroke care in two metropolitan areas in England, namely London and Greater Manchester (GM), was used to analyse the economic implications of two different implementation strategies for major system change. METHODS: A decision analytic model was used to calculate difference-in-differences in costs and outcomes before and after the implementation of two major system change strategies in stroke care in London and GM. Values in the model were based on patient level data from Hospital Episode Statistics, linked mortality data from the Office of National Statistics and data from two national stroke audits. Results were presented as net monetary benefit (NMB) and using Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis (PBMA) to assess the costs and benefits of a hypothetical typical region in England with approximately 4000 strokes a year. RESULTS: In London, after 90 days, there were nine fewer deaths per 1000 patients compared to the rest of England (95% CI -24 to 6) at an additional cost of £770,027 per 1000 stroke patients admitted. There were two additional deaths (95% CI -19 to 23) in GM, with a total costs saving of £156,118 per 1000 patients compared to the rest of England. At a £30,000 willingness to pay the NMB was higher in London and GM than the rest of England over the same time period. The results of the PBMA suggest that a GM style reconfiguration could result in a total greater health benefit to a region. Implementation costs were £136 per patient in London and £75 in GM. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of major system change in acute stroke care may result in a net health benefit to a region, even one functioning within a fixed budget. The choice of what model of stroke reconfiguration to implement may depend on the relative importance of clinical versus cost outcomes

Exploring stroke survivors' and physiotherapists' views of self-management after stroke: a qualitative study in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: Stroke is a sudden-onset condition with long-term consequences. Self-management could help address long-term consequences of stroke. Stroke survivors' and health professionals' views of self-management may vary, limiting the successful introduction of self-management strategies. This paper explores stroke survivors' and physiotherapists' views of self-management, focusing on what self-management means, and factors perceived to enable and hinder self-management after stroke, to draw out implications for policy, practice and future research. DESIGN: Qualitative study using semistructured interviews and a thematic analysis approach. SETTING: Stroke unit and community stroke-rehabilitation services in London, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 13 stroke survivors (8 men and 5 women; aged 53-89 years) admitted to a London stroke unit. 13 physiotherapists: 8 working in an inpatient stroke unit and 5 in community rehabilitation. RESULTS: Key differences were evident in how self-management was understood between these groups. Stroke survivors were unfamiliar with the term self-management, but most could provide their own definition and relate to the term, and understood it as care of the self: 'doing things for yourself' and 'looking after yourself'. They did not recognise self-management as part of their care, but valued therapists as encouraging experts in supporting their recovery after stroke. Physiotherapists commonly understood self-management as a process in which stroke survivors were expected to take an active role in their rehabilitation and manage their recovery and health, with different understandings of self-management among physiotherapists shaped by the context in which they worked. They reported that individual, social and organisational factors enable and hinder self-management after stroke, with individual and organisational barriers particularly evident in the early stages. CONCLUSIONS: If self-management support approaches are to be used, further work is required to explore the language and strategies used by professionals to support self-management, and the barriers to supporting self-management at different time points after stroke

Patient experience of centralised acute stroke care pathways

Background: In 2010, Greater Manchester (GM) and London centralized acute stroke care services into a reduced number of hyperacute stroke units, with local stroke units providing on‐going care nearer patients’ homes. / Objective: To explore the impact of centralized acute stroke care pathways on the experiences of patients. / Design: Qualitative interview study. Thematic analysis was undertaken, using deductive and inductive approaches. Final data analysis explored themes related to five chronological phases of the centralized stroke care pathway. / Setting and participants: Recruitment from 3 hospitals in GM (15 stroke patients/8 family members) and 4 in London (21 stroke patients/9 family members). / Results: Participants were impressed with emergency services and initial reception at hospital: disquiet about travelling further than a local hospital was allayed by clear explanations. Participants knew who was treating them and were involved in decisions. Difficulties for families visiting hospitals a distance from home were raised. Repatriation to local hospitals was not always timely, but no detrimental effects were reported. Discharge to the community was viewed less positively. / Discussion and conclusions: Patients on the centralized acute stroke care pathways reported many positive aspects of care: the centralization of care pathways can offer patients a good experience. Disadvantages of travelling further were perceived to be outweighed by the opportunity to receive the best quality care. This study highlights the necessity for all staff on a centralized care pathway to provide clear and accessible information to patients, in order to maximize their experience of care

Trends in the prevalence and management of pre-stroke atrial fibrillation, the South London Stroke Register, 1995-2014

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have found low use of anticoagulation prior to stroke, in people with atrial fibrillation (AF). This study examined data on patients with AF-related stroke from a population-based stroke register, and sought to examine changes in management of AF prior to stroke, and reasons for suboptimal treatment, in those who were known to be at a high risk of stroke. METHODS: The South London Stroke Register (SLSR) is an ongoing population-based register recording first-in-a-lifetime stroke. Trends in the prevalence of AF, and antithrombotic medication prescribed before the stroke, were investigated from 1995 to 2014. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the factors associated with appropriate management. RESULTS: Of the 5041 patients on the register, 816 (16.2%) were diagnosed with AF before their stroke. AF related stroke increased substantially among Black Carribean and Black African patients, comprising 5% of the overall cohort in 1995-1998, increasing to 25% by 2011-2014 (p = 2]) increased from 9% (1995-1998) to 30% (2011-2014) (p65) were significantly less likely to be prescribed an anticoagulant, with ethnicity, gender and deprivation showing no association with anticoagulation. CONCLUSIONS: Most AF-related strokes occurred in people who could have been predicted to be at high risk before their stroke, yet were not prescribed optimal preventative treatment. The elderly,despite being at highest stroke risk, were rarely prescribed anticoagulants

Patient-specific prediction of functional recovery after stroke

Background and aims Clinical predictive models for stroke recovery could offer the opportunity of targeted early intervention and more specific information for patients and carers. In this study, we developed and validated a patient-specific prognostic model for monitoring recovery after stroke and assessed its clinical utility. Methods Four hundred and ninety-five patients from the population-based South London Stroke Register were included in a substudy between 2002 and 2004. Activities of daily living were assessed using Barthel Index) at one, two, three, four, six, eight, 12, 26, and 52 weeks after stroke. Penalized linear mixed models were developed to predict patients' functional recovery trajectories. An external validation cohort included 1049 newly registered stroke patients between 2005 and 2011. Prediction errors on discrimination and calibration were assessed. The potential clinical utility was evaluated using prognostic accuracy measurements and decision curve analysis. Results Predictive recovery curves showed good accuracy, with root mean squared deviation of 3 Barthel Index points and a R2 of 83% up to one year after stroke in the external cohort. The negative predictive values of the risk of poor recovery (Barthel Index <8) at three and 12 months were also excellent, 96% (95% CI [93.6-97.4]) and 93% [90.8-95.3], respectively, with a potential clinical utility measured by likelihood ratios (LR+:17 [10.8-26.8] at three months and LR+:11 [6.5-17.2] at 12 months). Decision curve analysis showed an increased clinical benefit, particularly at threshold probabilities of above 5% for predictive risk of poor outcomes. Conclusions A recovery curves tool seems to accurately predict progression of functional recovery in poststroke patients

Sodium Valproate, a Histone Deacetylase Inhibitor, Is Associated With Reduced Stroke Risk After Previous Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: A variant in the histone deacetylase 9 (HDAC9) gene is associated with large artery stroke. Therefore, inhibiting HDAC9 might offer a novel secondary preventative treatment for ischemic stroke. The antiepileptic drug sodium valproate (SVA) is a nonspecific inhibitor of HDAC9. We tested whether SVA therapy given after ischemic stroke was associated with reduced recurrent stroke rate. METHODS: Data were pooled from 3 prospective studies recruiting patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack and long-term follow-up: the South London Stroke Register, The Vitamins to Prevent Stroke Study, and the Oxford Vascular Study. Patients receiving SVA were compared with patients who received antiepileptic drugs other than SVA using survival analysis and Cox Regression. RESULTS: A total of 11 949 patients with confirmed ischemic event were included. Recurrent stroke rate was lower in patient taking SVA (17 of 168) than other antiepileptic drugs (105 of 530; log-rank survival analysis P=0.002). On Cox regression, controlling for potential cofounders, SVA remained associated with reduced stroke (hazard ratio=0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.3–0.7; P=0.002). A similar result was obtained when patients taking SVA were compared with all cases not taking SVA (Cox regression, hazard ratio=0.47; 95% confidence interval: 0.29–0.77; P=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that exposure to SVA, an inhibitor of HDAC, may be associated with a lower recurrent stroke risk although we cannot exclude residual confounding in this study design. This supports the hypothesis that HDAC9 is important in the ischemic stroke pathogenesis and that its inhibition, by SVA or a more specific HDAC9 inhibitor, is worthy of evaluation as a treatment to prevent recurrent ischemic stroke

Genetic‐Guided Pharmacotherapy for Coronary Artery Disease: A Systematic and Critical Review of Economic Evaluations

Background Genetic‐guided pharmacotherapy (PGx) is not recommended in clinical guidelines for coronary artery disease (CAD). We aimed to examine the extent and quality of evidence from economic evaluations of PGx in CAD and to identify variables influential in changing conclusions on cost‐effectiveness. Methods and Results From systematic searches across 6 databases, 2 independent reviewers screened, included, and rated the methodological quality of economic evaluations of PGx testing to guide pharmacotherapy for patients with CAD. Of 35 economic evaluations included, most were model‐based cost‐utility analyses alone, or alongside cost‐effectiveness analyses of PGx testing to stratify patients into antiplatelets (25/35), statins (2/35), pain killers (1/35), or angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitors (1/35) to predict CAD risk (8/35) or to determine the coumadin doses (1/35). To stratify patients into antiplatelets (96/151 comparisons with complete findings of PGx versus non‐PGx), PGx was more effective and more costly than non‐PGx clopidogrel (28/43) but less costly than non‐PGx prasugrel (10/15) and less costly and less effective than non‐PGx ticagrelor (22/25). To predict CAD risk (51/151 comparisons), PGx using genetic risk scores was more effective and less costly than clinical risk score (13/17) but more costly than no risk score (16/19) or no treatment (9/9). The remaining comparisons were too few to observe any trend. Mortality risk was the most common variable (47/294) changing conclusions. Conclusions Economic evaluations to date found PGx to stratify patients with CAD into antiplatelets or to predict CAD risk to be cost‐effective, but findings varied based on the non‐PGx comparators, underscoring the importance of considering local practice in deciding whether to adopt PGx

Weekly variation in health-care quality by day and time of admission: a nationwide, registry-based, prospective cohort study of acute stroke care

BACKGROUND: Studies in many health systems have shown evidence of poorer quality health care for patients admitted on weekends or overnight than for those admitted during the week (the so-called weekend effect). We postulated that variation in quality was dependent on not only day, but also time, of admission, and aimed to describe the pattern and magnitude of variation in the quality of acute stroke care across the entire week. METHODS: We did this nationwide, registry-based, prospective cohort study using data from the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme. We included all adult patients (aged >16 years) admitted to hospital with acute stroke (ischaemic or primary intracerebral haemorrhage) in England and Wales between April 1, 2013, and March 31, 2014. Our outcome measure was 30 day post-admission survival. We estimated adjusted odds ratios for 13 indicators of acute stroke-care quality by fitting multilevel multivariable regression models across 42 4-h time periods per week. FINDINGS: The study cohort comprised 74 307 patients with acute stroke admitted to 199 hospitals. Care quality varied across the entire week, not only between weekends and weekdays, with different quality measures showing different patterns and magnitudes of temporal variation. We identified four patterns of variation: a diurnal pattern (thrombolysis, brain scan within 12 h, brain scan within 1 h, dysphagia screening), a day of the week pattern (stroke physician assessment, nurse assessment, physiotherapy, occupational therapy, and assessment of communication and swallowing by a speech and language therapist), an off-hours pattern (door-to-needle time for thrombolysis), and a flow pattern whereby quality changed sequentially across days (stroke-unit admission within 4 h). The largest magnitude of variation was for door-to-needle time within 60 min (range in quality 35–66% [16/46–232/350]; coefficient of variation 18·2). There was no difference in 30 day survival between weekends and weekdays (adjusted odds ratio 1·03, 95% CI 0·95–1·13), but patients admitted overnight on weekdays had lower odds of survival (0·90, 0·82–0·99). INTERPRETATION: The weekend effect is a simplification, and just one of several patterns of weekly variation occurring in the quality of stroke care. Weekly variation should be further investigated in other health-care settings, and quality improvement should focus on reducing temporal variation in quality and not only the weekend effect