Attribution of recent temperature behaviour reassessed by a neural-network method

Abstract Attribution studies on recent global warming by Global Climate Model (GCM) ensembles converge in showing the fundamental role of anthropogenic forcings as primary drivers of temperature in the last half century. However, despite their differences, all these models pertain to the same dynamical approach and come from a common ancestor, so that their very similar results in attribution studies are not surprising and cannot be considered as a clear proof of robustness of the results themselves. Thus, here we adopt a completely different, non-dynamical, data-driven and fully nonlinear approach to the attribution problem. By means of neural network (NN) modelling, and analysing the last 160 years, we perform attribution experiments and find that the strong increase in global temperature of the last half century may be attributed basically to anthropogenic forcings (with details on their specific contributions), while the Sun considerably influences the period 1910–1975. Furthermore, the role of sulphate aerosols and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for better catching interannual to decadal temperature variability is clarified. Sensitivity analyses to forcing changes are also performed. The NN outcomes both corroborate our previous knowledge from GCMs and give new insight into the relative contributions of external forcings and internal variability to climate

Antismoking campaigns’ perception and gender differences: a comparison among EEG Indices

Human factors’ aim is to understand and evaluate the interactions between people and tasks, technologies, and environment. Among human factors, it is possible then to include the subjective reaction to external stimuli, due to individual’s characteristics and states of mind. These processes are also involved in the perception of antismoking public service announcements (PSAs), the main tool for governments to contrast the first cause of preventable deaths in the world: tobacco addiction. In the light of that, in the present article, it has been investigated through the comparison of different electroencephalographic (EEG) indices a typical item known to be able of influencing PSA perception, that is gender. In order to investigate the neurophysiological underpinnings of such different perception, we tested two PSAs: one with a female character and one with a male character. Furthermore, the experimental sample was divided into men and women, as well as smokers and nonsmokers. The employed EEG indices were the mental engagement (ME: the ratio between beta activity and the sum of alpha and theta activity); the approach/withdrawal (AW: the frontal alpha asymmetry in the alpha band); and the frontal theta activity and the spectral asymmetry index (SASI: the ratio between beta minus theta and beta plus theta). Results suggested that the ME and the AW presented an opposite trend, with smokers showing higher ME and lower AW than nonsmokers. The ME and the frontal theta also evidenced a statistically significant interaction between the kind of the PSA and the gender of the observers; specifically, women showed higher ME and frontal theta activity for the male character PSA. This study then supports the usefulness of the ME and frontal theta for purposes of PSAs targeting on the basis of gender issues and of the ME and the AW and for purposes of PSAs targeting on the basis of smoking habits

Frontal brain asymmetries as effective parameters to assess the quality of audiovisual stimuli perception in adult and young cochlear implant users

How is music perceived by cochlear implant (CI) users? This question arises as "the next step" given the impressive performance obtained by these patients in language perception. Furthermore, how can music perception be evaluated beyond self-report rating, in order to obtain measurable data? To address this question, estimation of the frontal electroencephalographic (EEG) alpha activity imbalance, acquired through a 19-channel EEG cap, appears to be a suitable instrument to measure the approach/withdrawal (AW index) reaction to external stimuli. Specifically, a greater value of AW indicates an increased propensity to stimulus approach, and vice versa a lower one a tendency to withdraw from the stimulus. Additionally, due to prelingually and postlingually deafened pathology acquisition, children and adults, respectively, would probably differ in music perception. The aim of the present study was to investigate children and adult CI users, in unilateral (UCI) and bilateral (BCI) implantation conditions, during three experimental situations of music exposure (normal, distorted and mute). Additionally, a study of functional connectivity patterns within cerebral networks was performed to investigate functioning patterns in different experimental populations. As a general result, congruency among patterns between BCI patients and control (CTRL) subjects was seen, characterised by lowest values for the distorted condition (vs. normal and mute conditions) in the AW index and in the connectivity analysis. Additionally, the normal and distorted conditions were significantly different in CI and CTRL adults, and in CTRL children, but not in CI children. These results suggest a higher capacity of discrimination and approach motivation towards normal music in CTRL and BCI subjects, but not for UCI patients. Therefore, for perception of music CTRL and BCI participants appear more similar than UCI subjects, as estimated by measurable and not self-reported parameters

Neurophysiological Responses to Different Product Experiences

It is well known that the evaluation of a product from the shelf considers the simultaneous cerebral and emotional evaluation of the different qualities of the product such as its colour, the eventual images shown, and the envelope’s texture (hereafter all included in the term “product experience”). However, the measurement of cerebral and emotional reactions during the interaction with food products has not been investigated in depth in specialized literature. (e aim of this paper was to investigate such reactions by the EEG and the autonomic activities, as elicited by the cross-sensory interaction (sight and touch) across several different products. In addition, we investigated whether (i) the brand (Major Brand or Private Label), (ii) the familiarity (Foreign or Local Brand), and (iii) the hedonic value of products (Comfort Food or Daily Food) influenced the reaction of a group of volunteers during their interaction with the products. Results showed statistically significantly higher tendency of cerebral approach (as indexed by EEG frontal alpha asymmetry) in response to comfort food during the visual exploration and the visual and tactile exploration phases. Furthermore, for the same index, a higher tendency of approach has been found toward foreign food products in comparison with local food products during the visual and tactile exploration phase. Finally, the same comparison performed on a different index (EEG frontal theta) showed higher mental effort during the interaction with foreign products during the visual exploration and the visual and tactile exploration phases. Results from the present study could deepen the knowledge on the neurophysiological response to food products characterized by different nature in terms of hedonic value familiarity; moreover, they could have implications for food marketers and finally lead to further study on how people make food choices through the interactions with their commercial envelope

Message framing, non-conscious perception and effectiveness in non-profit advertising. Contribution by neuromarketing research

Advertising for non-profit organizations through television commercials is a valuable means of communication to raise awareness and receive donations. When it comes to social aspects, personal attitudes such as empathy are significant for reinforcing the intention to donate; and the study of eliciting emotions has critical attention in the literature, especially some types of emotion, such as guilt which mediates empathy. Different methodologies have been used to measure consumer emotions when faced with TV ads stimuli: mainly traditional techniques such as interviews or questionnaires after the ads viewing. In the last ten years, there has also been a great interest in new neuroscience techniques applied to measure emotional and cognitive reactions by physiological signals, frame by frame. Our research has applied neuromarketing technologies during the observation of a UNHCR commercial promoting legacy calls. The objective was to study cognitive and emotional reactions in order to increase the effectiveness whilst having the possibility to verify the results by measuring the benefits in terms of calls from contributors. The purpose of this research is to empirically prove the impact in calls thanks to changes in the message framing strategy in non-profit advertising suggested and measured by neuromarketing techniques. Particularly we measured the cerebral activity through an electroencephalogram to obtain an Approach-Withdrawal Index (AW); the heart rate and galvanic skin response through different sensors in the palm of one hand, to obtain an Emotional Index (EI), and finally, eye fixations through an eye tracker device to obtain the visual attention on key visual areas of the ads. After these indicators' recordings on a sample of subjects, some suggestions to modify the advertising were made to create a more effective campaign. The results compared, those elicited by the first version of the spot (LVE) and those by the second version (HVE), confirmed that (1) the number of sellable and legacy calls increased with the message framing strategy modified in the second spot (HVE), (2) a lower cognitive and emotional reactions have been obtained in the final section of HVE, (3) the visual attention on the key information of the phone number to call, in the final call to action frames(CTA), was higher in HVE than in the first version of the spot (LVE), (4) the cognitive approach increased during the same CTA frames in HVE

Baseline serum TSH levels predict the absence of thyroid dysfunction in cancer patients treated with immunotherapy

Purpose Immunotherapy against immune checkpoints has significantly improved survival both in metastatic and adjuvant setting in several types of cancers. Thyroid dysfunction is the most common endocrine adverse event reported. Patients who are at risk of developing thyroid dysfunction remain to be defined. We aimed to identify predictive factors for the develop- ment of thyroid dysfunction during immunotherapy. Methods This is a retrospective study including a total of 68 patients who were treated with immune checkpoint inhibi- tors (ICIs) for metastatic or unresectable advanced cancers. The majority of patients were treated with anti-PD1 drugs in monotherapy or in combination with anti-CTLA4 inhibitors. Thyroid function and anti-thyroid antibodies, before starting immunotherapy and during treatment, were evaluated. Thyroid ultrasound was also performed in a subgroup of patients at the time of enrolment in the study. Results Eleven out of 68 patients (16.1%) developed immune-related overt thyroid dysfunction. By ROC curve analysis, we found that a serum TSH cut-off of 1.72 mUI/l, at baseline, had a good diagnostic accuracy in identifying patients without overt thyroid dysfunction (NPV = 100%, p = 0.0029). At multivariate analysis, both TSH and positive anti-thyroid antibod- ies (ATAbs) levels, before ICIs treatment, were independently associated with the development of overt thyroid dysfunction during immunotherapy (p = 0.0001 and p = 0.009, respectively). Conclusions Pre-treatment serum TSH and ATAbs levels may help to identify patients at high risk for primary thyroid dysfunction. Our study suggests guidance for an appropriate timely screening and for a tailored management of thyroid dysfunctions in patients treated with ICIs

Message framing, non-conscious perception and effectiveness in non-profit advertising. Contribution by neuromarketing research

Advertising for non-profit organizations through television commercials is a valuable means of communication to raise awareness and receive donations. When it comes to social aspects, personal attitudes such as empathy are significant for reinforcing the intention to donate; and the study of eliciting emotions has critical attention in the literature, especially some types of emotion, such as guilt which mediates empathy. Different methodologies have been used to measure consumer emotions when faced with TV ads stimuli: mainly traditional techniques such as interviews or questionnaires after the ads viewing. In the last ten years, there has also been a great interest in new neuroscience techniques applied to measure emotional and cognitive reactions by physiological signals, frame by frame. Our research has applied neuromarketing technologies during the observation of a UNHCR commercial promoting legacy calls. The objective was to study cognitive and emotional reactions in order to increase the effectiveness whilst having the possibility to verify the results by measuring the benefits in terms of calls from contributors. The purpose of this research is to empirically prove the impact in calls thanks to changes in the message framing strategy in non-profit advertising suggested and measured by neuromarketing techniques. Particularly we measured the cerebral activity through an electroencephalogram to obtain an Approach-Withdrawal Index (AW); the heart rate and galvanic skin response through different sensors in the palm of one hand, to obtain an Emotional Index (EI), and finally, eye fixations through an eye tracker device to obtain the visual attention on key visual areas of the ads. After these indicators\u2019 recordings on a sample of subjects, some suggestions to modify the advertising were made to create a more effective campaign. The results compared, those elicited by the first version of the spot (LVE) and those by the second version (HVE), confirmed that (1) the number of sellable and legacy calls increased with the message framing strategy modified in the second spot (HVE), (2) a lower cognitive and emotional reactions have been obtained in the final section of HVE, (3) the visual attention on the key information of the phone number to call, in the final call to action frames(CTA), was higher in HVE than in the first version of the spot (LVE), (4) the cognitive approach increased during the same CTA frames in HVE

Role of computed tomography in predicting critical disease in patients with covid-19 pneumonia: a retrospective study using a semiautomatic quantitative method

Background: So far, only a few studies evaluated the correlation between CT features and clinical outcome in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Purpose: To evaluate CT ability in differentiating critically ill patients requiring invasive ventilation from patients with less severe disease. Methods: We retrospectively collected data from patients admitted to our institution for COVID-19 pneumonia between March 5th-24th. Patients were considered critically ill or non-critically ill, depending on the need for mechanical ventilation. CT images from both groups were analyzed for the assessment of qualitative features and disease extension, using a quantitative semiautomatic method. We evaluated the differences between the two groups for clinical, laboratory and CT data. Analyses were conducted on a per-protocol basis. Results: 189 patients were analyzed. PaO2/FIO2 ratio and oxygen saturation (SaO2) were decreased in critically ill patients. At CT, mixed pattern (ground glass opacities (GGO) and consolidation) and GGO alone were more frequent respectively in critically ill and in non-critically ill patients (p < 0.05). Lung volume involvement was significantly higher in critically ill patients (38.5 % vs. 5.8 %, p < 0.05). A cut-off of 23.0 % of lung involvement showed 96 % sensitivity and 96 % specificity in distinguishing critically ill patients from patients with less severe disease. The fraction of involved lung was related to lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, PaO2/FIO2 ratio and SaO2 (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Lung disease extension, assessed using quantitative CT, has a significant relationship with clinical severity and may predict the need for invasive ventilation in patients with COVID-19

NeuroDante: Poetry Mentally Engages More Experts but Moves More Non-Experts, and for Both the Cerebral Approach Tendency Goes Hand in Hand with the Cerebral Effort

Neuroaesthetics, the science studying the biological underpinnings of aesthetic experience, recently extended its area of investigation to literary art; this was the humus where neurocognitive poetics blossomed. Divina Commedia represents one of the most important, famous and studied poems worldwide. Poetry stimuli are characterized by elements (meter and rhyme) promoting the processing fluency, a core aspect of neuroaesthetics theories. In addition, given the evidence of different neurophysiological reactions between experts and non-experts in response to artistic stimuli, the aim of the present study was to investigate, in poetry, a different neurophysiological cognitive and emotional reaction between Literature (L) and Non-Literature (NL) students. A further aim was to investigate whether neurophysiological underpinnings would support explanation of behavioral data. Investigation methods employed: self-report assessments (recognition, appreciation, content recall) and neurophysiological indexes (approach/withdrawal (AW), cerebral effort (CE) and galvanic skin response (GSR)). The main behavioral results, according to fluency theories in aesthetics, suggested in the NL but not in the L group that the appreciation/liking went hand by hand with the self-declared recognition and with the content recall. The main neurophysiological results were: (i) higher galvanic skin response in NL, whilst higher CE values in L; (ii) a positive correlation between AW and CE indexes in both groups. The present results extended previous evidence relative to figurative art also to auditory poetry stimuli, suggesting an emotional attenuation “expertise-specific” showed by experts, but increased cognitive processing in response to the stimuli

Neurodante: Poetry mentally engages more experts but moves more non-experts, and for both the cerebral approach tendency goes hand in hand with the cerebral effort

11noopenNeuroaesthetics, the science studying the biological underpinnings of aesthetic experience, recently extended its area of investigation to literary art; this was the humus where neurocognitive poetics blossomed. Divina Commedia represents one of the most important, famous and studied poems worldwide. Poetry stimuli are characterized by elements (meter and rhyme) promoting the processing fluency, a core aspect of neuroaesthetics theories. In addition, given the evidence of different neurophysiological reactions between experts and non-experts in response to artistic stimuli, the aim of the present study was to investigate, in poetry, a different neurophysiological cognitive and emotional reaction between Literature (L) and Non-Literature (NL) students. A further aim was to investigate whether neurophysiological underpinnings would support explanation of behavioral data. Investigation methods employed: self-report assessments (recognition, appreciation, content recall) and neurophysiological indexes (approach/withdrawal (AW), cerebral effort (CE) and galvanic skin response (GSR)). The main behavioral results, according to fluency theories in aesthetics, suggested in the NL but not in the L group that the appreciation/liking went hand by hand with the self-declared recognition and with the content recall. The main neurophysiological results were: (i) higher galvanic skin response in NL, whilst higher CE values in L; (ii) a positive correlation between AW and CE indexes in both groups. The present results extended previous evidence relative to figurative art also to auditory poetry stimuli, suggesting an emotional attenuation “expertise-specific” showed by experts, but increased cognitive processing in response to the stimuli.openCartocci G.; Rossi D.; Modica E.; Maglione A.G.; Martinez Levy A.C.; Cherubino P.; Canettieri P.; Combi M.; Rea R.; Gatti L.; Babiloni F.Cartocci, G.; Rossi, D.; Modica, E.; Maglione, A. G.; Martinez Levy, A. C.; Cherubino, P.; Canettieri, P.; Combi, M.; Rea, R.; Gatti, L.; Babiloni, F