Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM_2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results.</p

Ambient biomass smoke and cardio-respiratory hospital admissions in Darwin, Australia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Increasing severe vegetation fires worldwide has been attributed to both global environmental change and land management practices. However there is little evidence concerning the population health effects of outdoor air pollution derived from biomass fires. Frequent seasonal bushfires near Darwin, Australia provide an opportunity to examine this issue. We examined the relationship between atmospheric particle loadings <10 microns in diameter (PM₁₀), and emergency hospital admissions for cardio-respiratory conditions over the three fire seasons of 2000, 2004 and 2005. In addition we examined the differential impacts on Indigenous Australians, a high risk population subgroup.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a case-crossover analysis of emergency hospital admissions with principal ICD10 diagnosis codes J00–J99 and I00–I99. Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios for admission with 10 μg/m³rises in PM₁₀. These were adjusted for weekly influenza rates, same day mean temperature and humidity, the mean temperature and humidity of the previous three days, days with rainfall > 5 mm, public holidays and holiday periods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>PM₁₀ranged from 6.4 – 70.0 μg/m³(mean 19.1). 2466 admissions were examined of which 23% were for Indigenous people. There was a positive relationship between PM₁₀and admissions for all respiratory conditions (OR 1.08 95%CI 0.98–1.18) with a larger magnitude in the Indigenous subpopulation (OR1.17 95% CI 0.98–1.40). While there was no relationship between PM₁₀and cardiovascular admissions overall, there was a positive association with ischaemic heart disease in Indigenous people, greatest at a lag of 3 days (OR 1.71 95%CI 1.14–2.55).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>PM10 derived from vegetation fires was predominantly associated with respiratory rather than cardiovascular admissions. This outcome is consistent with the few available studies of ambient biomass smoke pollution. Indigenous people appear to be at higher risk of cardio-respiratory hospital admissions associated with exposure to PM10.</p

A review of elliptical and disc galaxy structure, and modern scaling laws

A century ago, in 1911 and 1913, Plummer and then Reynolds introduced their models to describe the radial distribution of stars in `nebulae'. This article reviews the progress since then, providing both an historical perspective and a contemporary review of the stellar structure of bulges, discs and elliptical galaxies. The quantification of galaxy nuclei, such as central mass deficits and excess nuclear light, plus the structure of dark matter halos and cD galaxy envelopes, are discussed. Issues pertaining to spiral galaxies including dust, bulge-to-disc ratios, bulgeless galaxies, bars and the identification of pseudobulges are also reviewed. An array of modern scaling relations involving sizes, luminosities, surface brightnesses and stellar concentrations are presented, many of which are shown to be curved. These 'redshift zero' relations not only quantify the behavior and nature of galaxies in the Universe today, but are the modern benchmark for evolutionary studies of galaxies, whether based on observations, N-body-simulations or semi-analytical modelling. For example, it is shown that some of the recently discovered compact elliptical galaxies at 1.5 < z < 2.5 may be the bulges of modern disc galaxies.Comment: Condensed version (due to Contract) of an invited review article to appear in "Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems"(www.springer.com/astronomy/book/978-90-481-8818-5). 500+ references incl. many somewhat forgotten, pioneer papers. Original submission to Springer: 07-June-201

Copper-Triggered Aggregation of Ubiquitin

Neurodegenerative disorders share common features comprising aggregation of misfolded proteins, failure of the ubiquitin-proteasome system, and increased levels of metal ions in the brain. Protein aggregates within affected cells often contain ubiquitin, however no report has focused on the aggregation propensity of this protein. Recently it was shown that copper, differently from zinc, nickel, aluminum, or cadmium, compromises ubiquitin stability and binds to the N-terminus with 0.1 micromolar affinity. This paper addresses the role of copper upon ubiquitin aggregation. In water, incubation with Cu(II) leads to formation of spherical particles that can progress from dimers to larger conglomerates. These spherical oligomers are SDS-resistant and are destroyed upon Cu(II) chelation or reduction to Cu(I). In water/trifluoroethanol (80∶20, v/v), a mimic of the local decrease in dielectric constant experienced in proximity to a membrane surface, ubiquitin incubation with Cu(II) causes time-dependent changes in circular dichroism and Fourier-transform infrared spectra, indicative of increasing β-sheet content. Analysis by atomic force and transmission electron microscopy reveals, in the given order, formation of spherical particles consistent with the size of early oligomers detected by gel electrophoresis, clustering of these particles in straight and curved chains, formation of ring structures, growth of trigonal branches from the rings, coalescence of the trigonal branched structures in a network. Notably, none of these ubiquitin aggregates was positive to tests for amyloid and Cu(II) chelation or reduction produced aggregate disassembly. The early formed Cu(II)-stabilized spherical oligomers, when reconstituted in 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (POPC) liposomes and in POPC planar bilayers, form annular and pore-like structures, respectively, which are common to several neurodegenerative disorders including Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and prion diseases, and have been proposed to be the primary toxic species. Susceptibility to aggregation of ubiquitin, as it emerges from the present study, may represent a potential risk factor for disease onset or progression while cells attempt to tag and process toxic substrates

Expert consensus document: The International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics (ISAPP) consensus statement on the definition and scope of prebiotics

In December 2016, a panel of experts in microbiology, nutrition and clinical research was convened by the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics to review the definition and scope of prebiotics. Consistent with the original embodiment of prebiotics, but aware of the latest scientific and clinical developments, the panel updated the definition of a prebiotic: a substrate that is selectively utilized by host microorganisms conferring a health benefit. This definition expands the concept of prebiotics to possibly include non-carbohydrate substances, applications to body sites other than the gastrointestinal tract, and diverse categories other than food. The requirement for selective microbiota-mediated mechanisms was retained. Beneficial health effects must be documented for a substance to be considered a prebiotic. The consensus definition applies also to prebiotics for use by animals, in which microbiota-focused strategies to maintain health and prevent disease is as relevant as for humans. Ultimately, the goal of this Consensus Statement is to engender appropriate use of the term ‘prebiotic’ by relevant stakeholders so that consistency and clarity can be achieved in research reports, product marketing and regulatory oversight of the category. To this end, we have reviewed several aspects of prebiotic science including its development, health benefits and legislation

Patterns of mitochondrial DNA instability in Brassica campestris cultured cells

We previously showed that the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) of a Brassica campestris callus culture had undergone extensive rearrangements (i.e. large inversions and a duplication) relative to DNA of the control plant [54]. In this study we observed that after continued growth, the mtDNA of this culture continues to change, with rearranged forms amplifying and diminishing to varying proportions. Strikingly similar changes were detected in the mtDNA profiles of a variety of other long- and short-term callus and cell suspension lines. However, the proportions of parental (‘unrearranged’) and novel (‘rearranged’) forms varied in different cultured cell mtDNAs. To address the source of this heterogeneity, we compared the mtDNA organization of 28 individual plants from the parental seed stock. With the exception of one plant containing high levels of a novel plasmid-like mtDNA molecule, no significant variation was detected among individual plants and therefore source plant variation is unlikely to have contributed to the diversity of mitochondrial genomes observed in cultured cells. The source of this culture-induced heterogeneity was also investigated in 16 clones derived from single protoplasts. A mixed population of unrearranged and rearranged mtDNA molecules was apprent in each protoclone, suggesting that the observed heterogeneity in various cultures might reflect the genomic composition of each individual cell; however, the induction of an intercellular heterogeneity subsequent to the protoplast isolation was not tested and therefore cannot be ruled out. The results of this study support our earlier model that the rapid structural alteration of B. campestris mtDNA in vitro results from preferential amplification and reassortment of minor pre-existing forms of the genome rather than de novo rearrangement. Infrequent recombination between short dispersed repeated elements is proposed as the underlying mechanism for the formation of these minor mtDNA molecules.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43428/1/11103_2004_Article_BF00017914.pd

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Outcomes from elective colorectal cancer surgery during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

This study aimed to describe the change in surgical practice and the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on mortality after surgical resection of colorectal cancer during the initial phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic