An assessment of areal coverage of severe weather parameters for severe weather outbreak diagnosis

The areal extent of severeweather parameters favorable for significant severeweather is evaluated as a means of identifying major severe weather outbreaks. The first areal coverage method uses kernel density estimation (KDE) to identify severeweather outbreak locations. Aselected severeweather parameter value is computed at each grid point within the region identified by KDE. The average, median, or sum value is used to diagnose the event's severity. The second areal coverage method finds the largest contiguous region where a severe weather parameter exceeds a specified threshold that intersects theKDEregion. The severeweather parameter values at grid points within the parameter exceedance region are computed, with the average, median, or sumvalue used to diagnose the event's severity. A total of 4057 severe weather outbreaks from 1979 to 2008 are analyzed. An event is considered a major outbreak if it exceeds a selected ranking index score (developed in previous work), and is a minor event otherwise. The areal coverage method is also compared to Storm Prediction Center (SPC) day-1 convective outlooks from 2003 to 2008. Comparisons of the SPC forecasts and areal coverage diagnoses indicate the areal coverage methods have similar skill to SPC convective outlooks in discriminating major and minor severe weather outbreaks. Despite a seemingly large sample size, the rare-events nature of the dataset leads to sample size sensitivities. Nevertheless, the findings of this study suggest that areal coverage should be tested in a forecasting environment as a means of providing guidance in future outbreak scenarios. © 2012 American Meteorological Society

Synoptic composites of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks

Tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks occur within the United States and elsewhere around the world each year with devastating effect. However, few studies have considered the physical differences between these two outbreak types. To address this issue, synoptic-scale pattern composites of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks are formulated over North America using a rotated principal component analysis (RPCA). A cluster analysis of the RPC loadings group similar outbreak events, and the resulting map types represent an idealized composite of the constituent cases in each cluster. These composites are used to initialize aWeather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulation of each hypothetical composite outbreak type in an effort to determine the WRF's capability to distinguish the outbreak type each composite represents. Synoptic-scale pattern analyses of the composites reveal strikingly different characteristics within each outbreak type, particularly in the wind fields. The tornado outbreak composites reveal a strong low- and midlevel cyclone over the eastern Rockies, which is likely responsible for the observed surface low pressure system in the plains. Composite soundings from the hypothetical outbreak centroids reveal significantly greater bulk shear and storm-relative environmental helicity values in the tornado outbreak environment, whereas instability fields are similar between the two outbreak types. The WRF simulations of the map types confirm results observed in the composite soundings. © 2012 American Meteorological Society

Outbreak of gastroenteritis caused by Yersinia pestis in Afghanistan.

Plague, which is most often caused by the bite of Yersinia pestis-infected fleas, is a rapidly progressing, serious disease that can be fatal without prompt antibiotic treatment. In late December 2007, an outbreak of acute gastroenteritis occurred in Nimroz Province of southern Afghanistan. Of the 83 probable cases of illness, 17 died (case fatality 20·5%). Being a case was associated with consumption or handling of camel meat (adjusted odds ratio 4·4, 95% confidence interval 2·2-8·8, P<0·001). Molecular testing of patient clinical samples and of tissue from the camel using PCR/electrospray ionization-mass spectrometry revealed DNA signatures consistent with Yersinia pestis. Confirmatory testing using real-time PCR and immunological seroconversion of one of the patients confirmed that the outbreak was caused by plague, with a rare gastrointestinal presentation. The study highlights the challenges of identifying infectious agents in low-resource settings; it is the first reported occurrence of plague in Afghanistan

Prayer and psychological health: a study among sixth-form pupils attending Catholic and Protestant schools in Northern Ireland

Eysenck's dimensional model of personality includes two indicators of psychological health, defined as neuroticism and psychoticism. In order to examine the association between psychological health and prayer, two samples of sixth-form pupils in Northern Ireland (16- to 18-year-olds) attending Catholic (N = 1246) and Protestant (N = 1060) schools completed the abbreviated Revised Eysenck Personality Questionnaire alongside a simple measure of prayer frequency. The data demonstrated a positive association between prayer frequency and better levels of psychological health as assessed by Eysenck's notion of psychoticism. Among pupils attending both Catholic and Protestant schools, higher levels of prayer were associated with lower psychoticism scores. Among pupils attending Catholic schools, however, higher levels of prayer were also associated with higher neuroticism scores

Prayer, personality and happiness: a study among undergraduate students in Wales

In order to examine the association between prayer and happiness, a sample of 131 undergraduate students attending a university in Wales completed three measures: the Oxford Happiness Questionnaire, the abbreviated Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Revised, and prayer frequency assessed on a 5-point scale. The data demonstrated a significant positive correlation between prayer frequency and happiness before controlling for individual differences in personality. After controlling for personality, however, this apparent association vanished

Religion and mental health among Hindu young people in England

The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between mental health and attitude toward their religious tradition among a sample of 330 young people attending the Hindu Youth Festival in London. The participants completed the Santosh-Francis Scale of Attitude toward Hinduism together with the abbreviated form of the Revised Eysenck Personality Questionnaire which provides measures of neuroticism and psychoticism. The data indicated that a more positive attitude toward Hinduism was associated with lower psychoticism scores but unrelated to neuroticism scores. There is no evidence, therefore, to associate higher levels of religiosity with poorer mental health among young people within the Hindu community

Psychological type and prayer preferences: a study among Anglican clergy in the United Kingdom

This study applies the framework of Jungian psychological type theory to define eight aspects of prayer preference, namely: introverted prayer, extraverted prayer, sensing prayer, intuitive prayer, feeling prayer, thinking prayer, judging prayer, and perceiving prayer. On the basis of data provided by 1,476 newly ordained Anglican clergy from England, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales, eight 7-item scales were developed to access these aspects of prayer preferences. Significant correlations were found between each prayer preference and the relevant aspect of psychological type accessed by the Keirsey Temperament Sorter. These data support the theory that psychological type influences the way in which people pray

Prevention and management of excessive gestational weight gain: a survey of overweight and obese pregnant women

Background - Excessive gestational weight gain is associated with adverse infant, childhood and maternal outcomes and research to develop interventions to address this issue is ongoing. The views of women on gestational weight gain and the resources they would consider helpful in addressing this are however largely unknown. This survey aimed to determine the views of newly pregnant women, living in areas of social disadvantage, on 1) their current body weight and potential gestational weight gain and 2) the resources or interventions they would consider helpful in preventing excessive gestational weight gain. Methods - A convenience sample of overweight and obese pregnant women living in Fife, UK, were invited to complete a short anonymised questionnaire at their 12 week booking visit. Results - 428 women, BMI&#62;25 kg/m2, completed the questionnaire. Fifty-four per cent of respondents were obese (231) and 62% were living in areas of mild to moderate deprivation. Over three-quarters of participants felt dissatisfied with their current weight (81%). The majority of women (60%) expressed some concern about potential weight gain. Thirty-nine percent were unconcerned about weight gain during their pregnancy, including 34 women (19%) who reported having retained weight gained in earlier pregnancies. Amongst those concerned about weight gain advice on physical activity (41%) and access to sports/leisure facilities were favoured resources (36%). Fewer women (12%) felt that group sessions on healthy eating or attending a clinic for individualised advice (14%) would be helpful. "Getting time off work" was the most frequently cited barrier (48%) to uptake of resources other than leaflets. Conclusions- These data suggest a lack of awareness amongst overweight and obese women regarding excessive gestational weight gain. Monitoring of gestational weight gain, and approaches for its management, should be formally integrated into routine antenatal care. Barriers to the uptake of resources to address weight gain are numerous and must be considered in the design of future interventions and services

Osteoporosis-related fracture case definitions for population-based administrative data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Population-based administrative data have been used to study osteoporosis-related fracture risk factors and outcomes, but there has been limited research about the validity of these data for ascertaining fracture cases. The objectives of this study were to: (a) compare fracture incidence estimates from administrative data with estimates from population-based clinically-validated data, and (b) test for differences in incidence estimates from multiple administrative data case definitions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Thirty-five case definitions for incident fractures of the hip, wrist, humerus, and clinical vertebrae were constructed using diagnosis codes in hospital data and diagnosis and service codes in physician billing data from Manitoba, Canada. Clinically-validated fractures were identified from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos). Generalized linear models were used to test for differences in incidence estimates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For hip fracture, sex-specific differences were observed in the magnitude of under- and over-ascertainment of administrative data case definitions when compared with CaMos data. The length of the fracture-free period to ascertain incident cases had a variable effect on over-ascertainment across fracture sites, as did the use of imaging, fixation, or repair service codes. Case definitions based on hospital data resulted in under-ascertainment of incident clinical vertebral fractures. There were no significant differences in trend estimates for wrist, humerus, and clinical vertebral case definitions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The validity of administrative data for estimating fracture incidence depends on the site and features of the case definition.</p