Formation of Kuiper Belt Binaries

It appears that at least several percent of large Kuiper belt objects are members of wide binaries. Physical collisions are too infrequent to account for their formation. Collisionless gravitational interactions are more promising. These provide two channels for binary formation. In each, the initial step is the formation of a transient binary when two large bodies penetrate each other's Hill spheres. Stabilization of a transient binary requires that it lose energy. Either dynamical friction due to small bodies or the scattering of a third large body can be responsible. Our estimates favor the former, albeit by a small margin. We predict that most objects of size comparable to those currently observed in the Kuiper belt are members of multiple systems. More specifically, we derive the probability that a large body is a member of a binary with semi-major axis of order a. The probability depends upon sigma, the total surface density, Sigma, the surface density of large bodies having radius R, and theta=10^-4, the angle subtended by the solar radius as seen from the Kuiper belt. For (sigma/Sigma)R<a< R/theta, the probability is just (Sigma/rho R)theta^-2, the optical depth of the large bodies divided by the solid angle subtended by the Sun. For R<a<r_u=(sigma/Sigma)R, it varies inversely with semimajor axis and reaches (sigma/rho R)theta^-2 at a=R. Based on current surveys of the Kuiper belt, we estimate Sigma/rho=3 10^-4cm and R=100km. We obtain sigma/rho=0.3cm by extrapolating the surface density deduced for the minimum mass solar nebula. Rough predictions are: outside of the critical separation r_u/a_odot=3'', the binary probability is 0.3%; at separations of 0.2'', comparable to current resolving capabilities, it reaches 5%, in agreement with results from the HST binary survey by Brown

A low density of 0.8 g/cc for the Trojan binary asteroid 617 Patroclus

The Trojan population consists of two swarms of asteroids following the same orbit as Jupiter and located at the L4 and L5 Lagrange points of the Jupiter-Sun system (leading and following Jupiter by 60 degrees). The asteroid 617 Patroclus is the only known binary Trojan (Merline et al. 2001). The orbit of this double system was hitherto unknown. Here we report that the components, separated by 680 km, move around the system centre of mass, describing roughly a circular orbit. Using the orbital parameters, combined with thermal measurements to estimate the size of the components, we derive a very low density of 0.8 g/cc. The components of Patroclus are therefore very porous or composed mostly of water ice, suggesting that they could have been formed in the outer part of the solar system.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

A dimensioning and tolerancing methodology for concurrent engineering applications I: problem representation

This paper is the first of two which present a methodology for determining the dimensional specifications of all the component parts and sub-assemblies of a product according to their dimensional requirements. To achieve this goal, two major steps are followed, each of which is described in a paper. In the first paper, all relationships necessary for finding the values of dimensions and tolerances are represented in a matrix form, known as a Dimensional Requirements/Dimensions (DR/D) matrix. In the second paper, the values of individual dimensions and tolerances are determined by applying a comprehensive solution strategy to satisfy all the relationships represented in the DR/D matrix. The methodology is interactive and suitable for use in a concurrent engineering (CE) environment. The graphical tool presented in this paper will assist a CE team in visualizing the overall D&T problem and foreseeing the ramifications of decisions regarding the selection of dimensions and tolerances. This will assist the CE team to systematically determine all the controllable variables, such as dimensions, tolerances, and manufacturing processes

Neuropsychiatric Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Predictors of Occurrence and Resolution in a Longitudinal Analysis of an International Inception Cohort

Objective: To determine predictors of change in neuropsychiatric (NP) event status in a large, prospective, international inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). // Methods: Upon enrollment and annually thereafter, NP events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes and physician-determined resolution were documented. Factors potentially associated with the onset and resolution of NP events were determined by time-to-event analysis using a multistate modeling structure. // Results: NP events occurred in 955 (52.3%) of 1,827 patients, and 593 (31.0%) of 1,910 unique events were attributed to SLE. For SLE-associated NP (SLE NP) events, multivariate analysis revealed a positive association with male sex (P = 0.028), concurrent non-SLE NP events excluding headache (P < 0.001), active SLE (P = 0.012), and glucocorticoid use (P = 0.008). There was a negative association with Asian race (P = 0.002), postsecondary education (P = 0.001), and treatment with immunosuppressive drugs (P = 0.019) or antimalarial drugs (P = 0.056). For non-SLE NP events excluding headache, there was a positive association with concurrent SLE NP events (P < 0.001) and a negative association with African race (P = 0.012) and Asian race (P < 0.001). NP events attributed to SLE had a higher resolution rate than non-SLE NP events, with the exception of headache, which had comparable resolution rates. For SLE NP events, multivariate analysis revealed that resolution was more common in patients of Asian race (P = 0.006) and for central/focal NP events (P < 0.001). For non-SLE NP events, resolution was more common in patients of African race (P = 0.017) and less common in patients who were older at SLE diagnosis (P < 0.001). // Conclusion: In a large and long-term study of the occurrence and resolution of NP events in SLE, we identified subgroups with better and worse prognosis. The course of NP events differs greatly depending on their nature and attribution

Association Between Severe Nonadherence to Hydroxychloroquine and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Flares, Damage, and Mortality in 660 Patients From the SLICC Inception Cohort

OBJECTIVE: The goals of this study were to assess the associations of severe nonadherence to hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), objectively assessed by HCQ serum levels, and risks of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares, damage, and mortality rates over five years of follow-up. METHODS: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort is an international multicenter initiative (33 centers throughout 11 countries). The serum of patients prescribed HCQ for at least three months at enrollment were analyzed. Severe nonadherence was defined by a serum HCQ level <106 ng/mL or <53 ng/mL for HCQ doses of 400 or 200 mg/day, respectively. Associations with the risk of a flare (defined as a Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 increase ≥4 points, initiation of prednisone or immunosuppressive drugs, or new renal involvement) were studied with logistic regression, and associations with damage (first SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI] increase ≥1 point) and mortality with separate Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Of the 1,849 cohort participants, 660 patients (88% women) were included. Median (interquartile range) serum HCQ was 388 ng/mL (244–566); 48 patients (7.3%) had severe HCQ nonadherence. No covariates were clearly associated with severe nonadherence, which was, however, independently associated with both flare (odds ratio 3.38; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.80–6.42) and an increase in the SDI within each of the first three years (hazard ratio [HR] 1.92 at three years; 95% CI 1.05–3.50). Eleven patients died within five years, including 3 with severe nonadherence (crude HR 5.41; 95% CI 1.43–20.39). CONCLUSION: Severe nonadherence was independently associated with the risks of an SLE flare in the following year, early damage, and five-year mortality

Lower vitamin D is associated with metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in systemic lupus: data from an international inception cohort

OBJECTIVES: Vitamin D (25(OH)D) deficiency and metabolic syndrome (MetS) may both contribute to increased cardiovascular risk in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed to examine the association of demographic factors, SLE phenotype, therapy and vitamin D levels with MetS and insulin resistance. METHODS: The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) enrolled patients recently diagnosed with SLE (<15 months) from 33 centres across 11 countries from 2000. Clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data were collected. Vitamin D level was defined according to tertiles based on distribution across this cohort, which were set at T1 (10-36 nmol/l), T2 (37-60 nmol/l) and T3 (61-174 nmol/l). MetS was defined according to the 2009 consensus statement from the International Diabetes Federation. Insulin resistance was determined using the HOMA-IR model. Linear and logistic regressions were used to assess the association of variables with vitamin D levels. RESULTS: Of the 1847 patients, 1163 (63%) had vitamin D measured and 398 (34.2%) subjects were in the lowest 25(OH)D tertile. MetS was present in 286 of 860 (33%) patients whose status could be determined. Patients with lower 25(OH)D were more likely to have MetS and higher HOMA-IR. The MetS components, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia and decreased HDL were all significantly associated with lower 25(OH)D. Increased average glucocorticoid exposure was associated with higher insulin resistance. CONCLUSIONS: MetS and insulin resistance are associated with lower vitamin D in patients with SLE. Further studies could determine whether vitamin D repletion confers better control of these cardiovascular risk factors and improve long-term outcomes in SLE

Antinuclear Antibody–Negative Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in an International Inception Cohort

Objectives: The spectrum of antinuclear antibodies (ANA) is changing to include both nuclear staining as well as cytoplasmic and mitotic cell patterns (CMPs) and accordingly a change in terminology to anti‐cellular antibodies. This study examined the prevalence of indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) anti‐cellular antibody staining using the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort. / Methods: Anti‐cellular antibodies were detected by IIF on HEp‐2000 substrate utilizing the baseline serum. Three serological subsets were examined: 1) ANA‐positive (presence of either nuclear or mixed nuclear/CMP staining), 2) anti‐cellular antibody‐negative (absence of any intracellular staining), and 3) isolated CMP staining. The odds of being anti‐cellular antibody‐negative versus ANA or isolated CMP‐positive was assessed by multivariable analysis. / Results: 1137 patients were included; 1049/1137 (92.3%) were ANA‐positive, 71/1137 (6.2%) were anti‐cellular antibody‐negative, and 17/1137 (1.5%) had isolated CMP. The isolated CMP group did not differ from the ANA‐positive or anti‐cellular antibody‐negative group in clinical, demographic or serologic features. Patients who were older (OR 1.02 [95% CI: 1.00, 1.04]), of Caucasian race/ethnicity (OR 3.53 [95% CI: 1.77, 7.03]), or on high dose glucocorticoids at or prior to enrolment (OR 2.39 [95% CI: 1.39, 4.12]) were more likely to be anti‐cellular antibody‐negative. Patients on immunosuppressants (OR 0.35 [95% CI: 0.19, 0.64]) or with anti‐SSA/Ro60 (OR 0.41 [95% CI: 0.23, 0.74]) or anti‐UI‐RNP (OR 0.43 [95% CI: 0.20, 0.93]) were less likely to be anti‐cellular antibody‐negative. / Conclusions: In newly diagnosed SLE, 6.2% of patients were anti‐cellular antibody‐negative and 1.5% had isolated CMP. The prevalence of anti‐cellular antibody‐negative SLE will likely decrease as emerging nomenclature guidelines recommend that non‐nuclear patterns should also be reported as a positive ANA

Accrual of Atherosclerotic Vascular Events in a Multicenter Inception Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Cohort

Objective: In previous studies, atherosclerotic vascular events (AVEs) were shown to occur in ~10% of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We undertook this study to investigate the annual occurrence and potential risk factors for AVEs in a multinational, multiethnic inception cohort of patients with SLE. / Methods: A large 33‐center cohort of SLE patients was followed up yearly between 1999 and 2017. AVEs were attributed to atherosclerosis based on SLE being inactive at the time of the AVE as well as typical atherosclerotic changes observed on imaging or pathology reports and/or evidence of atherosclerosis elsewhere. Analyses included descriptive statistics, rate of AVEs per 1,000 patient‐years, and univariable and multivariable relative risk regression models. / Results: Of the 1,848 patients enrolled in the cohort, 1,710 had ≥1 follow‐up visit after enrollment, for a total of 13,666 patient‐years. Of these 1,710 patients, 3.6% had ≥1 AVEs attributed to atherosclerosis, for an event rate of 4.6 per 1,000 patient‐years. In multivariable analyses, lower AVE rates were associated with antimalarial treatment (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.32–0.91]), while higher AVE rates were associated with any prior vascular event (HR 4.00 [95% CI 1.55–10.30]) and a body mass index of >40 kg/m2 (HR 2.74 [95% CI 1.04–7.18]). A prior AVE increased the risk of subsequent AVEs (HR 5.42 [95% CI 3.17–9.27], P < 0.001). / Conclusion: The prevalence of AVEs and the rate of AVE accrual demonstrated in the present study is much lower than that seen in previously published data. This may be related to better control of both the disease activity and classic risk factors

Psychosis in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Results From an International Inception Cohort Study

Objectives: To determine, in a multi-ethnic/racial, prospective SLE inception cohort, the frequency, attribution, clinical and autoantibody associations with lupus psychosis and the short and long-term outcome as assessed by physicians and patients. Methods: Patients were evaluated annually for 19 neuropsychiatric (NP) events including psychosis. SLE disease activity 2000, SLICC/ACR damage index and SF-36 scores were collected. Time to event and linear regressions were used as appropriate. Results: Of 1,826 SLE patients, 88.8% were female, 48.8% Caucasian. The meanSD age was 35.1±13.3 years, disease duration 5.64.2 months and follow-up 7.44.5 years. There were 31 psychotic events in 28/1,826 (1.53%) patients and most [(26/28; 93%)] had a single event. In the majority of patients [20/25; (80%)] and events [28/31; (90%)] psychosis was attributed to SLE, usually within 3 years of SLE diagnosis. Positive associations [hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval [HR (95%CI)] with lupus psychosis were prior SLE NP events [3.59, (1.16, 11.14), male sex [3.0, (1.20, 7.50)], younger age at SLE diagnosis [(per 10 years younger), 1.45 (1.01, 2.07)] and African ancestry [4.59 (1.79, 11.76)]. By physician assessment most psychotic events resolved by the second annual visit following onset, in parallel with an improvement in patient reported SF-36 summary and subscale scores. Conclusion: Psychosis is an infrequent manifestation of NPSLE. Generally, it occurs early after SLE onset and has a significant negative impact on health status. As determined by patient and physician report, the short and long term outlook is good for most patients, though careful follow-up is required