The effect of asymmetries on stock index return value-at-risk estimates

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value-at-risk (VaR) analysis relies on the assumption that returns are normally distributed (a symmetric distribution). This article considers the effect of asymmetries on the evaluation and accuracy of VaR by comparing estimates based on various models

Higher cortisol:cortisone ratios in the preovulatory follicle of completely unstimulated IVF cycles indicate oocytes with increased pregnancy potential

BACKGROUND: Conception following gonadotrophin-stimulated IVF and embryo transfer has been associated with a higher intrafollicular cortisol:cortisone ratio and decreased metabolism of cortisol to cortisone. The role of glucocorticoids in human oocyte maturation is not fully understood, but active glucocorticoid (cortisol) may be important. This study relates intrafollicular cortisol and cortisone concentrations to oocyte fertilization and embryo implantation in unstimulated cycles. METHODS: Patients aged <40 years with favourable sperm underwent unstimulated IVF–embryo transfer. Study 1 related intrafollicular cortisol levels to oocyte and IVF outcome: (i) fertilized, pregnant (n = 9); (ii) fertilized, not pregnant (n = 21); and (iii) unfertilized (n = 12). Study 2 was a case–control study of 27 patients (same outcome groups of equal size) which measured intrafollicular cortisol, cortisone and the cortisol:cortisone ratio. RESULTS: Conception cycles demonstrated higher cortisol concentrations compared with the fertilized group (study 1) [median (95% confidence interval): 299 (249–330) versus 227 nmol/l (185–261); P < 0.05] and higher cortisol:cortisone ratios when compared with the unfertilized group (study 2) [7.38 (5.23–9.19) versus 3.56 (1.75–7.46) respectively; P = 0.02]. Of the women with cortisol:cortisone ratios greater than the outcome independent mean of 5.90, 58% conceived compared with only 13% with ratios <5.90 (P < 0.02). CONCLUSION: Higher cortisol:cortisone ratios in conception cycles suggest that active glucocorticoid may be important for final oocyte maturation and embryo implantation in unstimulated cycles

Total cortisol levels are reduced in the periovulatory follicle of infertile women with minimal-mild endometriosis

PROBLEM: To measure and compare concentrations of total and free glucocorticoids with oocyte fertilizing capacity in the follicular fluid (FF) of women with minimal–mild endometriosis and tubal damage.METHOD OF STUDY: Follicular fluid was collected from individual periovulatory follicles during oocyte retrieval for in vitro fertilization (IVF) in natural cycles. Total and free levels of cortisol and cortisone were measured using specific radioimmunoassays after chloroform extraction.RESULTS: Cortisol concentrations in women with minimal–mild endometriosis were significantly lower compared with controls (women with tubal infective damage) (258 versus 328 nmol/L, P < 0.02). There was no correlation between total or free concentrations of cortisol or cortisone and the fertilization capacity of the oocyte.CONCLUSIONS: Total cortisol levels are lower in the follicles of women with endometriosis. Our findings provide further evidence of follicular dysfunction contributing to the subfertility associated with minimal–mild endometriosis