Estimating the Fractal Dimension, K_2-entropy, and the Predictability of the Atmosphere

The series of mean daily temperature of air recorded over a period of 215 years is used for analysing the dimensionality and the predictability of the atmospheric system. The total number of data points of the series is 78527. Other 37 versions of the original series are generated, including ``seasonally adjusted'' data, a smoothed series, series without annual course, etc. Modified methods of Grassberger and Procaccia are applied. A procedure for selection of the ``meaningful'' scaling region is proposed. Several scaling regions are revealed in the ln C(r) versus ln r diagram. The first one in the range of larger ln r has a gradual slope and the second one in the range of intermediate ln r has a fast slope. Other two regions are settled in the range of small ln r. The results lead us to claim that the series arises from the activity of at least two subsystems. The first subsystem is low-dimensional (d_f=1.6) and it possesses the potential predictability of several weeks. We suggest that this subsystem is connected with seasonal variability of weather. The second subsystem is high-dimensional (d_f>17) and its error-doubling time is about 4-7 days. It is found that the predictability differs in dependence on season. The predictability time for summer, winter and the entire year (T_2 approx. 4.7 days) is longer than for transition-seasons (T_2 approx. 4.0 days for spring, T_2 approx. 3.6 days for autumn). The role of random noise and the number of data points are discussed. It is shown that a 15-year-long daily temperature series is not sufficient for reliable estimations based on Grassberger and Procaccia algorithms.Comment: 27 pages (LaTex version 2.09) and 15 figures as .ps files, e-mail: [email protected]

Global properties and local structure of the weather attractor over Western Europe

An analysis of the West European climate over short time scales is performed by means of time series of the 500 mb geopotential height at nine different meteorological stations. The characterization of the dynamics is based on the computation of the dimensions of manifolds on which the systems evolve. For this purpose several embedding techniques are used and compared. All methods give similar results, namely, that the data in different stations seem to derive from a single dynamical system of a few degrees of freedom possessing a low-dimensional attractor. The authors have estimated some average properties of the attractor such as its dimension and the dominant Lyapounov exponents. Furthermore, they have explored its local structure and found a relation between the rate of divergence on it and the corresponding heights of geopotential.Anglai