50 research outputs found
Understanding Terrorist Organizations with a Dynamic Model
Terrorist organizations change over time because of processes such as
recruitment and training as well as counter-terrorism (CT) measures, but the
effects of these processes are typically studied qualitatively and in
separation from each other. Seeking a more quantitative and integrated
understanding, we constructed a simple dynamic model where equations describe
how these processes change an organization's membership. Analysis of the model
yields a number of intuitive as well as novel findings. Most importantly it
becomes possible to predict whether counter-terrorism measures would be
sufficient to defeat the organization. Furthermore, we can prove in general
that an organization would collapse if its strength and its pool of foot
soldiers decline simultaneously. In contrast, a simultaneous decline in its
strength and its pool of leaders is often insufficient and short-termed. These
results and other like them demonstrate the great potential of dynamic models
for informing terrorism scholarship and counter-terrorism policy making.Comment: To appear as Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Science v2:
vectorized 4 figures, fixed two typos, more detailed bibliograph
Primordial Nucleosynthesis for the New Cosmology: Determining Uncertainties and Examining Concordance
Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) have
a long history together in the standard cosmology. The general concordance
between the predicted and observed light element abundances provides a direct
probe of the universal baryon density. Recent CMB anisotropy measurements,
particularly the observations performed by the WMAP satellite, examine this
concordance by independently measuring the cosmic baryon density. Key to this
test of concordance is a quantitative understanding of the uncertainties in the
BBN light element abundance predictions. These uncertainties are dominated by
systematic errors in nuclear cross sections. We critically analyze the cross
section data, producing representations that describe this data and its
uncertainties, taking into account the correlations among data, and explicitly
treating the systematic errors between data sets. Using these updated nuclear
inputs, we compute the new BBN abundance predictions, and quantitatively
examine their concordance with observations. Depending on what deuterium
observations are adopted, one gets the following constraints on the baryon
density: OmegaBh^2=0.0229\pm0.0013 or OmegaBh^2 = 0.0216^{+0.0020}_{-0.0021} at
68% confidence, fixing N_{\nu,eff}=3.0. Concerns over systematics in helium and
lithium observations limit the confidence constraints based on this data
provide. With new nuclear cross section data, light element abundance
observations and the ever increasing resolution of the CMB anisotropy, tighter
constraints can be placed on nuclear and particle astrophysics. ABRIDGEDComment: 54 pages, 20 figures, 5 tables v2: reflects PRD version minor changes
to text and reference
Challenges of web-based learning environments: are we student-centred enuf?
The last decade has seen a phenomenal growth in the use of the Web in university education, with various factors influencing the adoption of Web-based technology. The reduction of government funding in the higher education sector has forced universities to seek technological solutions to provide courses for a growing and increasingly diverse and distributed student population [13,14]. Another impetus has been a shift in focus from teacher-centred to learner-centred education, encouraging educators to provide courses which enable students to manage their own learning [6]. In this paper we discuss challenges associated with the design and provision of Web-based learning environments that are truly student-centred. We draw on interview and questionnaire data from an evaluation study to raise issues surrounding the provision of online environments that meet learners\u27 needs. We discuss the challenges of catering for the needs of different learners and the challenges associated with helping students to make the transition into new online learning environments.<br /