A mathematical framework for critical transitions: normal forms, variance and applications

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to classify critical transitions by using bifurcation theory and normal forms in the singular limit. Based on this elementary classification, we analyze stochastic fluctuations and calculate scaling laws of the variance of stochastic sample paths near critical transitions for fast subsystem bifurcations up to codimension two. The theory is applied to several models: the Stommel-Cessi box model for the thermohaline circulation from geoscience, an epidemic-spreading model on an adaptive network, an activator-inhibitor switch from systems biology, a predator-prey system from ecology and to the Euler buckling problem from classical mechanics. For the Stommel-Cessi model we compare different detrending techniques to calculate early-warning signs. In the epidemics model we show that link densities could be better variables for prediction than population densities. The activator-inhibitor switch demonstrates effects in three time-scale systems and points out that excitable cells and molecular units have information for subthreshold prediction. In the predator-prey model explosive population growth near a codimension two bifurcation is investigated and we show that early-warnings from normal forms can be misleading in this context. In the biomechanical model we demonstrate that early-warning signs for buckling depend crucially on the control strategy near the instability which illustrates the effect of multiplicative noise.Comment: minor corrections to previous versio

Topological constraints strongly affect chromatin reconstitution in silico

The fundamental building block of chromatin, and of chromosomes, is the nucleosome, a composite material made up from DNA wrapped around a his-tone octamer. In this study we provide the first com-puter simulations of chromatin self-assembly, start-ing from DNA and histone proteins, and use these to understand the constraints which are imposed by the topology of DNA molecules on the creation of a polynucleosome chain. We take inspiration from the in vitro chromatin reconstitution protocols which are used in many experimental studies. Our simulations indicate that during self-assembly, nucleosomes can fall into a number of topological traps (or local folding defects), and this may eventually lead to the forma-tion of disordered structures, characterised by nu-cleosome clustering. Remarkably though, by intro-ducing the action of topological enzymes such as type I and II topoisomerase, most of these defects can be avoided and the result is an ordered 10-nm chromatin fibre. These findings provide new insight into the biophysics of chromatin formation, both in the context of reconstitution in vitro and in terms of the topological constraints which must be overcome during de novo nucleosome formation in vivo, e.g. following DNA replication or repair

Fruchtbarkeitsentwicklung in der DDR seit dem X. Parteitag der SED und die Entwicklung der Bevoelkerung im Kindesalter bis zum Jahr 2010 Studie

Freie Universitaet Berlin, Zentralinstitut 6 05/85 / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman