Climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere based on the use of an atmosphere-ocean IPCC model

Forced and natural variability of modelled and observed Atlantic Ocean temperature and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is studied. In the observations and in a forced climate model run, we find increasing temperature at 1000m in the Atlantic (20N). SVD analysis shows that, for both model data and observations, a high index of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) corresponds to negative temperature anomaly at 1000m to the north of 55N, although geographical details of temperature anomaly distribution are different for the model and observations. Particular attention has been paid to the influence of the fresh water flux due to the present global warning on the slowing down of the AMOC. It is shown that fresh water flux change is only a secondary cause of reduced AMOC in global warming conditions, while heat flux change is probably the main reason. Finally, it is shown that internal model AMOC variability is positively correlated with the near-surface air temperature in Atlantic-European Arctic sector on a 10-year time scale

Forecasting wind power production from a wind farm using the RAMS model

The importance of wind power forecast is commonly recognized because it represents a useful tool for grid integration and facilitates the energy trading. This work considers an example of power forecast for a wind farm in the Apennines in Central Italy. The orography around the site is complex and the horizontal resolution of the wind forecast has an important role. To explore this point we compared the performance of two 48 h wind power forecasts using the winds predicted by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for the year 2011. The two forecasts differ only for the horizontal resolution of the RAMS model, which is 3 km (R3) and 12 km (R12), respectively. Both forecasts use the 12 UTC analysis/forecast cycle issued by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) as initial and boundary conditions. As an additional comparison, the results of R3 and R12 are compared with those of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), whose horizontal resolution over Central Italy is about 25 km at the time considered in this paper. Because wind observations were not available for the site, the power curve for the whole wind farm was derived from the ECMWF wind operational analyses available at 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 UTC for the years 2010 and 2011. Also, for R3 and R12, the RAMS model was used to refine the horizontal resolution of the ECMWF analyses by a two-years hindcast at 3 and 12 km horizontal resolution, respectively. The R3 reduces the RMSE of the predicted wind power of the whole 2011 by 5% compared to R12, showing an impact of the meteorological model horizontal resolution in forecasting the wind power for the specific site

Observed development of the vertical structure of the marine boundary layer during the LASIE experiment in the Ligurian Sea

In the marine environment, complete datasets describing the surface layer and the vertical structure of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL), through its entire depth, are less frequent than over land, due to the high cost of measuring campaigns. During the seven days of the Ligurian Air-Sea Interaction Experiment (LASIE), organized by the NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC) in the Mediterranean Sea, extensive in situ and remote sensing measurements were collected from instruments placed on a spar buoy and a ship. Standard surface meteorological measurements were collected by meteorological sensors mounted on the buoy ODAS Italia1 located in the centre of the Gulf of Genoa. The evolution of the height (<I>z<sub>i</sub></I>) of the MABL was monitored using radiosondes and a ceilometer on board of the N/O Urania. <br><br> Here, we present the database and an uncommon case study of the evolution of the vertical structure of the MABL, observed by two independent measuring systems: the ceilometer and radiosondes. Following the changes of surface flow conditions, in a sequence of onshore – offshore – onshore wind direction shifting episodes, during the mid part of the campaign, the overall structure of the MABL changed. Warm and dry air from land advected over a colder sea, induced a stably stratified Internal Boundary Layer (IBL) and a consequent change in the structure of the vertical profiles of potential temperature and relative humidity

Mid Latitude Extreme Precipitation under future changed climate

Precipitation patterns under global warming scenario are statistically analyzed for the Mediterranean and North Europe areas. Simulation data from the global coupled atmosphere-ocean model INMCM.3 are used and compared with obervations. Changes in intensity, frequency, duration and amount of precipitation due to different IPCC scenarios are investigated. Furthermore we analyze the precipitation patterns for the better understanding of the hydrologic cycle, including a statistical analysis of precipitation extreme events

NATURAL VARIABILITY OF THE ATLANTIC MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION IN THE INMCM3.0 MODEL

Natural variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in a 720-year pre-industrial simulation from the coupled climate model INMCM3.0 is analyzed. In the model, AMOC has the strongest spectral maximum at a period of 15 years. On the basis of a 5-year running mean AMOC index it is shown that the transition from negative to positive AMOC phase corresponds with high water density at 35-60N and low density at 15-25N, while during the positive AMOC phase, density anomalies are weaker. A correspondence between the positive AMOC phase and positive Arctic Oscillation is identified. Positive, negative and delayed feedbacks between AMOC and surface heat and fresh water fluxes, and heat and salinity transport in the ocean are studied. The meridional oceanic fresh water flux is found to be mainly responsible for a positive feedback, while the meridional heat flux is a main factor for a delayed negative feedback for the AMOC variability

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