Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy

This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and to update continuously their beliefs regarding the dynamic structure of the economy based on incoming data. The process of perpetual learning introduces an additional layer of dynamic interaction between monetary policy and economic outcomes. We find that policies that would be efficient under rational expectations can perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation become uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation results, in a pattern similar to that experienced in the United States during the 1970s. Our results highlight the value of effective communication of a central bank's inflation objective and of continued vigilance against inflation in anchoring inflation expectations and fostering macroeconomic stability. July 2003

Twenty-five years quaternium-15 in the European baseline series:does it deserve its place there?

For allergens to be included in the European baseline series, they should have allergy rates of at least 1%. In several studies quaternium-15 had lower scores. Also, many cases of sensitization are already detected by formaldehyde contact allergy. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether quaternium-15 deserves continued inclusion in the baseline series on the basis of current criteria: 1% positive reactions, common occurrence in the environment, many relevant reactions. We used the literature survey method in this study. Only the United Kingdom has rates consistently over 1%. The mean for all other countries together and for many individual nations is lower than 1%. At least half of the reactions are already detected by formaldehyde sensitivity, which lowers rates for allergy to quaternium-15 per se (i.e. not caused or at least detected by formaldehyde sensitivity) to less than 0.6% for all countries except the United Kingdom. Neither common occurrence in the environment nor a high percentage of relevant reactions has been ascertained. It may well be argued that quaternium-15 does not deserve its place in the European baseline series and could be incorporated in a cosmetic screening series or preservative series instead. In the United Kingdom, routine testing should be continued.</p

Relationship between formaldehyde and quaternium-15 contact allergy. Influence of strength of patch test reactions

Objectives: To test our hypothesis that patients with stronger patch test reactions to formaldehyde are more likely to react to quaternium-15, attesting to the aetiological role for formaldehyde in such co-reactivity. Methods: Retrospective analysis of all patients patch tested with formaldehyde and quaternium-15 in the European baseline series between 1994 and 2009 (TRUE test (R)). Results: In a group of 86 patients allergic to formaldehyde, 73% co-reacted to quaternium-15; in the subgroup of 70 women, the percentage was 83. In both groups, more reactions were observed to quaternium-15 in the patients with a ++ reaction compared to the patients with a + reaction to formaldehyde. Conversely, stronger reactions to quaternium-15 were significantly more often associated with formaldehyde sensitivity in a group of 107 patients reacting to quaternium-15 and a subgroup of 88 women. In men, such effects were not observed and only 5 of 16 (31%) men allergic to formaldehyde also reacted to quaternium-15. Conclusions: In women, but not in men, stronger reactions to formaldehyde lead to more positive quaternium-15 patch tests

CHECKLIST USE FOR ASSESSMENT OF SATISFACTION WITH TRANS-TIBIAL PROSTHESES

Objective: To assess satisfaction of prosthesis users with their prostheses, and the problems they experience with the residual limb, using a checklist, in order to evaluate potential benefits of checklist use and to summarize issues and problems with the prosthesis and/or residual limb presented by prosthesis users.Design: Cross-sectional study.Subjects: Participants were adult trans-tibial prosthesis users (n = 82) and certified prosthetist orthotist (n = 19) experienced in fitting lower-limb prostheses.Methods: Prosthesis users reported their reasons for consultation and factors concerning prosthesis (dis)satisfaction and residual limb problems, using a checklist. Checklist use was evaluated by certified prosthetist orthotists and prosthesis users and the significance of evaluation scores was determined.Results: Checklist use identified 126 issues/problems, most of which concerned prosthesis fit (33%) and pressure points on the residual limb skin (26%). Evaluation scores were significantly higher than neutral regarding the checklist helping the certified prosthetist orthotist to gather more information and to make clear with which issues the prosthesis user was dissatisfied. Prosthesis users reported that checklist use made them feel more understood by the certified prosthetist orthotist.Conclusion: Checklist use in the assessment of trans-tibial prostheses is beneficial in identifying factors related to dissatisfaction, and improves the quality of certified prosthetist orthotists' consultation. The implementation of checklist use is, however, challenging.</p

Evaluation of antibodies against human HSP60 in patients with MPO-ANCA associated glomerulonephritis: a cohort study

BACKGROUND: Human Heat Shock Protein 60 (hHSP60) has been implicated in autoimmunity through molecular mimicry, based on the high degree of homology with HSP65 of micro-organisms leading to autoimmune recognition of the human protein. Additionally, sequence homology between hHSP60 and myeloperoxidase (MPO) has been described. MPO is a major autoantigen in vasculitis associated with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (ANCA). We hypothesized that infections may trigger the ANCA response against MPO through hHSP60. METHODS: In 86 consecutive patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV), anti-hHSP60 and anti-mycobacterial HSP65 were measured by ELISA. Patients were compared with 69 healthy controls (HC). Continuous data between groups were compared using Wilcoxon signed rank test and Kruskal-Wallis test with Dunn's post-test when appropriate. Correlations between data were derived using Spearman correlation. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were obtained using Fisher's exact test. RESULTS: At diagnosis, median anti-mHSP65 level was higher in AAV (median [range]: 42.5 [0–500]), and subsequently in MPO-ANCA (44 [7–500]), compared to HC (22 [0–430]). Anti-hHSP60 levels in AAV were not higher compared to HC (18 [0–319] and 18.5 [0–98], respectively). However, in MPO-ANCA anti-hHSP60 levels were increased (32.5 [0–319]) compared to PR3-ANCA (13 [0–79]) and HC. We could not detect cross-reactivity between hHSP60 and MPO-ANCA. There was a correlation between anti-mHSP65 and anti-hHSP60 levels (r = 0.32, P = 0.003) but not between anti-hHSP60 and MPO-ANCA (r = -0.064, P = 0.69). CONCLUSION: Antibodies against mHSP65 are higher in AAV compared to HC, and anti-hHSP60 antibodies are higher in patients with MPO-ANCA than in patients with PR3-ANCA and HC. Although this finding may be indicative for cross-reactivity between MPO-ANCA and hHSP60, additional assays did not support this hypothesis