A categorical foundation for Bayesian probability

Given two measurable spaces $H$ and $D$ with countably generated $\sigma$-algebras, a perfect prior probability measure $P_H$ on $H$ and a sampling distribution $S: H \rightarrow D$, there is a corresponding inference map $I: D \rightarrow H$ which is unique up to a set of measure zero. Thus, given a data measurement $\mu: 1 \rightarrow D$, a posterior probability $\widehat{P_H}= I \circ \mu$ can be computed. This procedure is iterative: with each updated probability $P_H$, we obtain a new joint distribution which in turn yields a new inference map $I$ and the process repeats with each additional measurement. The main result uses an existence theorem for regular conditional probabilities by Faden, which holds in more generality than the setting of Polish spaces. This less stringent setting then allows for non-trivial decision rules (Eilenberg--Moore algebras) on finite (as well as non finite) spaces, and also provides for a common framework for decision theory and Bayesian probability.Comment: 15 pages; revised setting to more clearly explain how to incorporate perfect measures and the Giry monad; to appear in Applied Categorical Structure

Approximating Nash Equilibria in Tree Polymatrix Games

We develop a quasi-polynomial time Las Vegas algorithm for approximating Nash equilibria in polymatrix games over trees, under a mild renormalizing assumption. Our result, in particular, leads to an expected polynomial-time algorithm for computing approximate Nash equilibria of tree polymatrix games in which the number of actions per player is a fixed constant. Further, for trees with constant degree, the running time of the algorithm matches the best known upper bound for approximating Nash equilibria in bimatrix games (Lipton, Markakis, and Mehta 2003). Notably, this work closely complements the hardness result of Rubinstein (2015), which establishes the inapproximability of Nash equilibria in polymatrix games over constant-degree bipartite graphs with two actions per player

Asymmetric triplex metallohelices with high and selective activity against cancer cells

Small cationic amphiphilic α-helical peptides are emerging as agents for the treatment of cancer and infection, but they are costly and display unfavourable pharmacokinetics. Helical coordination complexes may offer a three-dimensional scaffold for the synthesis of mimetic architectures. However, the high symmetry and modest functionality of current systems offer little scope to tailor the structure to interact with specific biomolecular targets, or to create libraries for phenotypic screens. Here, we report the highly stereoselective asymmetric self-assembly of very stable, functionalized metallohelices. Their anti-parallel head-to-head-to-tail ‘triplex’ strand arrangement creates an amphipathic functional topology akin to that of the active sub-units of, for example, host-defence peptides and ​p53. The metallohelices display high, structure-dependent toxicity to the human colon carcinoma cell-line HCT116 ​p53++, causing dramatic changes in the cell cycle without DNA damage. They have lower toxicity to human breast adenocarcinoma cells (MDA-MB-468) and, most remarkably, they show no significant toxicity to the bacteria methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli. At a glanc

Uist Lagoons Survey

Scotland has around a hundred saline lagoons, coastal lochs that are not quite as saline as the sea. A small number of organisms are confined to these lochs, but most of these are very small and belong to groups that are difficult to identify. A consortium of specialists in identification at the National Museum of Scotland and ecologists sampled most of the saline lagoons on designated sites (SSSI and SAC) in the Uists, the area believed to have the best biodiversity of lagoon organisms in Scotland. The study not only confirmed the presence of these specialist species, but also that they were more widely distributed in the Uists than had been believed. Samples of the organisms have been placed in the permanent collections of the National Museum of Scotland and (for plants) in the Royal Botanic Gardens Edinburgh, where they will be available for future study

Direct detection and characterization of foot-and-mouth disease virus in East Africa using a field-ready real-time PCR platform

Effective control and monitoring of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) relies upon rapid and accurate disease confirmation. Currently, clinical samples are usually tested in reference laboratories using standardized assays recommended by The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). However, the requirements for prompt and serotype-specific diagnosis during FMD outbreaks, and the need to establish robust laboratory testing capacity in FMD-endemic countries have motivated the development of simple diagnostic platforms to support local decision-making. Using a portable thermocycler, the T-COR™ 8, this study describes the laboratory and field evaluation of a commercially available, lyophilized pan-serotype-specific real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR) assay and a newly available FMD virus (FMDV) typing assay (East Africa-specific for serotypes: O, A, Southern African Territories [SAT] 1 and 2). Analytical sensitivity, diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of the pan-serotype-specific lyophilized assay were comparable to that of an OIE-recommended laboratory-based rRT-PCR (determined using a panel of 57 FMDV-positive samples and six non-FMDV vesicular disease samples for differential diagnosis). The FMDV-typing assay was able to correctly identify the serotype of 33/36 FMDV-positive samples (no cross-reactivity between serotypes was evident). Furthermore, the assays were able to accurately detect and type FMDV RNA in multiple sample types, including epithelial tissue suspensions, serum, oesophageal–pharyngeal (OP) fluid and oral swabs, both with and without the use of nucleic acid extraction. When deployed in laboratory and field settings in Tanzania, Kenya and Ethiopia, both assays reliably detected and serotyped FMDV RNA in samples (n = 144) collected from pre-clinical, clinical and clinically recovered cattle. These data support the use of field-ready rRT-PCR platforms in endemic settings for simple, highly sensitive and rapid detection and/or characterization of FMDV

Bayes and health care research.

Bayes’ rule shows how one might rationally change one’s beliefs in the light of evidence. It is the foundation of a statistical method called Bayesianism. In health care research, Bayesianism has its advocates but the dominant statistical method is frequentism. There are at least two important philosophical differences between these methods. First, Bayesianism takes a subjectivist view of probability (i.e. that probability scores are statements of subjective belief, not objective fact) whilst frequentism takes an objectivist view. Second, Bayesianism is explicitly inductive (i.e. it shows how we may induce views about the world based on partial data from it) whereas frequentism is at least compatible with non-inductive views of scientific method, particularly the critical realism of Popper. Popper and others detail significant problems with induction. Frequentism’s apparent ability to avoid these, plus its ability to give a seemingly more scientific and objective take on probability, lies behind its philosophical appeal to health care researchers. However, there are also significant problems with frequentism, particularly its inability to assign probability scores to single events. Popper thus proposed an alternative objectivist view of probability, called propensity theory, which he allies to a theory of corroboration; but this too has significant problems, in particular, it may not successfully avoid induction. If this is so then Bayesianism might be philosophically the strongest of the statistical approaches. The article sets out a number of its philosophical and methodological attractions. Finally, it outlines a way in which critical realism and Bayesianism might work together. </p

A probabilistic analysis of argument cogency

This paper offers a probabilistic treatment of the conditions for argument cogency as endorsed in informal logic: acceptability, relevance, and sufficiency. Treating a natural language argument as a reason-claim-complex, our analysis identifies content features of defeasible argument on which the RSA conditions depend, namely: change in the commitment to the reason, the reason’s sensitivity and selectivity to the claim, one’s prior commitment to the claim, and the contextually determined thresholds of acceptability for reasons and for claims. Results contrast with, and may indeed serve to correct, the informal understanding and applications of the RSA criteria concerning their conceptual dependence, their function as update-thresholds, and their status as obligatory rather than permissive norms, but also show how these formal and informal normative approachs can in fact align

China\u27s Acquisitions Abroad - Global Ambitions, Domestic Effects

In the past year or so, the world has observed with seeming trepidation what appears to be a new phenomenon-China\u27s stepping out into the world economy. The move, labeled the Going Out Strategy by Chinese policy makers, sees China acting in the world not just as a trader of commodities and raw materials, or the provider of inexpensively-produced consumer goods for every corner of the globe, but as a driven and sophisticated acquirer of foreign assets and the equity interests in the legal entities that control such assets. The New Yorker magazine, ever topical and appropriately humorous, highlighted this attention with a cartoon in its October 17,2005 edition. That drawing shows two prosperous and no doubt Upper East Side-dwelling matrons holding cocktails before a fireplace. Above the fireplace hangs the formal portrait of a balding, well-fed, elderly, man. Looking at the portrait, one lady says matter-of-factly to the other: That\u27s Karl, before he was purchased by the Chinese