The Syrian Christians of Kerala : demographic and socioeconomic transition in the twentieth century

The twentieth century has witnessed a process of significant transition of the Syrian Christian community in Kerala in terms of its demographic and socio-economic status. In this paper, the transition of the demographic structure is discussed in terms of size, composition, geographic distribution and growth rates and the underlying factors of transition comprising fertility, mortality, and migration. Against this background, an attempt is made to present a set of projections of the population of the Syrian Christian community in Kerala till the year 2031. Discussion is made in a comparative setting; the corresponding changes that have come about in the other communities – Hindus, Muslims, and Latin Christians – are also examined. In the beginning of the 19th century (1801), the Syrian Christians were a small community of about 1 lakh people. Although their number increased eightfold during the century, by the end of the century (1900) they were in the very early stage of demographic transition. Women were a minority. Children constituted nearly half of the total population. The community was characterised by very high death rate, very high birth rate, very early age at marriage, and 10 to 12 children per married woman. The Syrian Christian women of that time had very little control over the number and timing of childbirth. The community was characterised by a high degree of concentration in a small number of taluks of the state. The Syrian Christians of that time were not a very migratory community. By the beginning of the 21st century, the Syrian Christian community has more or less completed its demographic transition. Women are a majority now; they outnumber men. Children constitute 4 less than 25 percent of the total population. The community has very low levels of mortality and fertility rates. It has high migration rate and high average age at marriage. Most Syrian Christian women have full control over when and how many children they would like to bear in their lifetime. The Syrian Christians are now spread out, not only all over India, but also all over the globe. In the coming decades, relatively stable conditions are expected to prevail in their basic demographic parameters- fertility and mortality rates. But the effect of the past trends (of fertility and mortality rate) would become very apparent on the size and structure of the population. There is a very strong possibility that the Syrian Christian community would enter the ZPG regime (Zero Population Growth) or NPG regime (Negative Population Growth) within a matter of a decade or two. With very low fertility and in-breeding habits the Syrian Christians could experience the “Parsi Syndrome” Efforts to modify the emerging demographic trends in any significant manner are unlikely to meet with much success. This is the lesson which demographers have learned from populations that have made such efforts. Under the circumstances, the community is advised to cope with the new situation rather than to fight it out. This paper is aimed at drawing the community’s attention to these emerging demographic trends, their likely impact on the community, and suggesting the need for some introspection on the part of the community on means to cope with the adverse fall out of the emerging trends

GiRaFFE: An Open-Source General Relativistic Force-Free Electrodynamics Code

We present GiRaFFE, the first open-source general relativistic force-free electrodynamics (GRFFE) code for dynamical, numerical-relativity generated spacetimes. GiRaFFE adopts the strategy pioneered by McKinney and modified by Paschalidis and Shapiro to convert a GR magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) code into a GRFFE code. In short, GiRaFFE exists as a modification of IllinoisGRMHD, a user-friendly, open-source, dynamical-spacetime GRMHD code. Both GiRaFFE and IllinoisGRMHD leverage the Einstein Toolkit's highly-scalable infrastructure to make possible large-scale simulations of magnetized plasmas in strong, dynamical spacetimes on adaptive-mesh refinement (AMR) grids. We demonstrate that GiRaFFE passes a large suite of both flat and curved-spacetime code tests passed by a number of other state-of-the-art GRFFE codes, and is thus ready for production-scale simulations of GRFFE phenomena of key interest to relativistic astrophysics.Comment: 23 pages, 4 figures. Consistent with published versio

Costs of basic services in Kerala, 2007 : education, health, childbirth and finance (loans)

This Working Paper focuses on the pattern and costs of services in four areas, which critically affect most households in Kerala. The major concerns of this Working Paper include answers to questions such as: How much did Kerala households spend for education of their children, for treatment of common and chronic diseases among their members, and for securing medical services related to pregnancy and childbirth? What is the extent of household indebtedness in Kerala? At what cost households secure loans for household and personal needs from banks and other financial institutions

From Kerala via Kerala via the Gulf : emigration experiences of return emigrants

This paper about return emigrants in Kerala is based on information on return emigrants collected by the Centre for Development Studies (CDS) through several of its recent large-scale household surveys. The term ‘return emigrants’ is used here to mean Kerala-born persons, who have lived outside India for a minimum of 12 months or worked/studied outside for shorter periods. In recent years, return emigrants have become a demographically, politically and economically significant component of Kerala’s population. At present - one out of every 29 persons in Kerala - one out of every 22 adult population of Kerala (15+) - one out of every 19 working age population of Kerala (15-59 years) - one out of every 9 working age male population of Kerala are return emigrants. This report is about this important section of Kerala’s population. It therefore has significant bearings on every aspect of life in the state

Impact of the global recession on migration and remittances in Kerala : new evidences from the Return Migration Study (RMS) 2009

The Research Unit on International Migration at the Centre for Development Studies undertook this study on the request of Department of Non-Resident Keralite Affairs (NORKA), Government of Kerala. NORKA envisagaaed that the broad objective of the study should be an assessment of the impact of global recession on the emigrants from Kerala. Its specific objectives are to provide answers to the following questions: • How many of Kerala emigrants lost their jobs abroad because of the global recession? • How many of them returned home due to recession-related factors? • What are the social and economic impacts of such job losses on the emigrants, their families and the Kerala economy? • How their subsequent return to Kerala impacted them, their families and the Kerala economy? • What measures can be adopted to minimise the adverse impact of the recession on the socio-economic situation in the state? • What measures can be adopted to rehabilitate the emigrants who have returned as a direct consequence of global recession, particularly those in low-wage jobs? These questions are answered in this study by a comparison of two data panels where information about employment, remittances and other characteristics have been gathered. The first data panel of emigrants and return emigrants for 2008 (before the recession) has been compared with corresponding information for 2009 (eight months into the recession). The difference between the two sets of data is attributed to recession

Inflexion in Kerala's Gulf connection : report on Kerala Migration Survey 2011

This Working Paper embodies the results of the Kerala Migration Survey (KMS) 2011. It is the fifth in the series of comprehensive studies on international and internal migration from Kerala being undertaken by the Centre for Development Studies since 1998. Over the years, some broad patters on migration have emerged from these studies. Some of these are enumerated in this abstract. Migration Trends The number of Kerala emigrants (EMI) living abroad in 2011 is estimated to be 2.28 million, up from 2.19 million in 2008, 1.84 million in 2003 and 1.36 million in 1998. The increase during inter-survey periods shows a decreasing trend. The increase could vanish much before 2015 and the migration trend could very well slope downward. The number of Kerala emigrants who returned and living in Kerala (REM) in 2011 is estimated to be 1.15 million. There was a small decrease in the number of return emigrants during 2008-11. It was 1.16 million in 2008. Kerala migrants living in other states in India (OMI) in 2011 is estimated to be 931,000, up from 914,000 in 2008. The increase was not very substantial, less than 2 percent. Kerala out-migrants who returned and are now living in Kerala (return out-migrants) are estimated to be 511,000 in 2011. The corresponding number was 686,000 in 2008, 994,000 in 2003 and 959,000 in 1998. There was a consistent decline in the number of return out-migrants. More and more Kerala migrants in the other states in India tend to stay back in their host state or move abroad instead of returning to their native state. Geographic Aspects of Migration: Northward Shift If demography is destiny, as is often claimed by demographers, Kerala’s destiny is moving northwards. Several relevant elements of Kerala’s demography have shown a steady northward shift. Over the years, the centre of population has moved northward. In recent years, population growth has become much higher in the state’s north than in its southern region. The origin of emigration from Kerala is moving to its north. More and more remittances are ending up in the north. In recent years more of the developments in education and health have taken place in the north than in the south. In 1998, only 33.4 percent of Kerala’s population with secondary or higher levels of education lived in the north (Malappuram to Kasaragod) and the remaining 66.6 percent lived in the south and central regions of the state. By 2011, the corresponding proportions were 39.0 in the north and 61.0 in the other regions. The proportion in the north has increased by 5.6 percentage points, whereas the proportion in the south and central regions decreased by the same percentage. Similarly, in 1998, the north accounted for only 33.4 percent of employed persons, but by 2011, the corresponding proportion increased to 39.0 percent. In 1998, only 15.6 percent of population in the north was employed in the private sector of the economy, but by 2011, as much as 32.4 percent of the north’s population was employed in the private sector. The corresponding percentages in the self-employment sector were 32.8 per cent in 1998 and 36.0 percent in 2011. Religious Aspects Emigration from Kerala is dominated by Muslims whose share of the emigrants from the state (44.3 percent) continued to remain very much higher than their share in the population (26.5 percent). On the other handout-migrants from the state are mostly Hindus, whose share of out-migrants (64.6 percent) continued to remain very much higher than their share in the population (56.8 percent). Corresponding to 100 households, there are 59.1 emigrants in Muslim households, but only 18.1 emigrants in Hindu households and 29.0 emigrants in Christian households. Among the Muslims, 53.3 percent of the households had at least one emigrant or return emigrant. However, among the Hindu households, only 19.6 percent of the households had a non-resident Keralite. The Christians are not far from the Hindus in this matter. Among them only 21.3 percent had one or more non-resident Keralites. Remittances Remittances from emigrants abroad to Kerala in 2011 were estimated to be approximately Rs 49,695 crores compared with Rs. 43,288 crores in 2008. Remittances were Rs. 63,315 per household in 2011 compared with Rs. 57,227 in 2008. Increase in remittances during 2008-11 (15 percent) was much larger than increase in the number of emigrants (4 percent). Muslim households received Rs. 23,089 crores as remittances from abroad in 2011. This amounts to 46.5 percent of the total remittances. Hindus received Rs 18,089 crores or 36.4 percent of the total. The Christian community received Rs. 8,508 crores or 17.1 percent. Although the total remittances to the state are relatively very large, only a small fraction (17.1 percent) of the households in Kerala received them; more than 80 percent of the Kerala households did not receive any remittances in 2011. There are, however, large differentials by religion. The corresponding proportion was as low as 11.4 percent among the Hindus, 14.4 percent among the Christians but as high as 36.6 percent among the Muslim households. Impact of Migration The macro-economic impact of emigration and remittances are very significant. Emigration and the ensuing remittances continue to remain the single most dynamic factor in Kerala’s economic scenario. Remittances were 31 percent of the state’s domestic product. The per capita income in the state is Rs 52,000 without taking into consideration remittances, but would be Rs 68,000 if remittances were taken in to consideration. The economic benefits that the state receives from these annual remittances are huge, but they have to be balanced with the losses in the matter of human resources. At present, there is acute scarcity of qualified workers in every field in the state. More than 30 percent of persons with higher educational qualifications are now living abroad. More than 25 to 30 of percent of workers in high skill occupations are now living outside the state. The negative impact of this drain on Kerala’s economy is yet to be fully quantified in financial terms. Equally pertinent is the drain of funds that go into educating Kerala’s youth outside the state. This amount was roughly about Rs 1703 crores in 2011, or 3.4 percent of the annual remittances to the state. Migration is also having a negative impact on income distribution in the state. As the early emigrants from the state were mostly construction workers, there was a general feeling that emigration contributed to income equality. However, a more recent comparison of the employment and educational characteristics of the emigrants with those of the non-migrants show that this may not be true any longer. In recent years, the relatively better-off persons emigrate and improves their income level and consequently emigration contributes inequality. More direct information on the relation between emigration and income is provided by the data on the possession of red and blue ration cards by Kerala households and also by the data on enrolment in RSBY. These data show that emigrants come from the relatively richer households, and that emigration would have contributed to increased inequality in Kerala society. Migration Prospects Trends emerging from these studies, some directly related to emigration and others related to determinants of emigration, support the conclusion that emigration from Kerala seems to be approaching an inflexion point in history. Kerala’s Gulf connection is edging towards a turning point. Emigration from Kerala in 2011 is more or less at the same level it was in 2008, indicating that 2011 is not far from the inflexion point in the history of emigration from Kerala. Many of the major centres of emigration in Kerala are already experiencing a decline in the number of emigrants and/or emigrants per household. The experience of Pathanamthitta district could be seen as forerunner of things to come in Kerala. In Pathanamthitta district, the number of emigrants was 98,000 in 1998, 134,000 in 2003, and 121,000 in 2008 but only 91,000 in 2011 – lower than the number in 1998. Emigrants per household was 33.1 in 1998, 44.3 per cent in 2003 and 37.4 percent in 2008 but only 28.4 percent in 2011. The point of inflexion in emigration trend in Pathanamthitta district was as early as 2003. Supporting evidence is provided by the trends in the factors related to migration – demographic contraction of young working age population in Kerala, dwindling wage differentials between Kerala and the Gulf region, competition from other Indian states in India and other countries abroad, and above all, the rapidly increasing cost of emigration. All these trends point towards emergence of an era of decreasing trend in emigration from Kerala. Kerala’s Gulf connection could reach its inflexion point in a matter of 4-5 years