Unintended Detrimental Effects of Environmental Policy: The Green Paradox and Beyond

Well-intended policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions may have unintended undesirable consequences. Recently, a large literature has emerged showing under what conditions this so-called 'Green Paradox' may occur. We review this literature and identify the key mechanisms behind these paradoxical policy outcomes and highlight avenues for future research

Carbon Leakage Revisited: Unilateral Climate Policy with Directed Technical Change

The increase in carbondioxide emissions by some countries in reaction to an emission reduction by countries with climate policy (carbon leakage) is seen as a serious threat to unilateral climate policy.Using a two-country model where only one of the countries enforces an exogenous cap on emissions, this paper analyzes the effect of technical change that can be directed towards the clean or dirty input, on carbon leakage.We show that, as long as technical change cannot be directed, there will always be carbon leakage through the standard terms-of-trade effect.However, once we allow for directed technical change, a counterbalancing induced technology effect arises and carbon leakage will generally be lower.Moreover, we show that when the relative demand for energy is sufficiently elastic, carbon leakage may be negative: the technology effect induces the unconstrained region to voluntarily reduce its own emissions.Keywords

Concepto de equilibrio y no-equilibrio en los modelos genéticos forestales: los enfoques de la población

The environment is changing and so are forests, in their functioning, in species composition, and in the species’ genetic composition. Many empirical and process-based models exist to support forest management. However, most of these models do not consider the impact of environmental changes and forest management on genetic diversity nor on the rate of adaptation of critical plant processes. How genetic diversity and rates of adaptation depend on management actions is a crucial next step in model development. Modelling approaches of genetic and demographic processes that operate in forests are categorized here in two classes. One approach assumes equilibrium conditions in phenotype and tree density, and analyses the characteristics of the demography and the genetic system of the species that determine the rate at which that equilibrium is attained. The other modelling approach does not assume equilibrium conditions and describes both the ecological —and genetic processes to analyse how environmental changes result in selection pressures on functional traits of trees and the consequences of that selection for tree— and ecosystem functioning. The equilibrium approach allows analysing the recovery rate after a perturbation in stable environments, i.e. towards the same pre-perturbation stable state. The nonequilibrium approach allows, in addition to the equilibrium approach, analysing consequences of ongoing environmental changes and forest management, i.e. non-stationary environments, on tree functioning, species composition, and genetic composition of the trees in forest ecosystem. In this paper we describe these two modelling approaches and discuss advantages and disadvantages of them and current knowledge gaps.El ambiente está cambiando así como los bosques, en su funcionamiento, en la composición de especies, y en la composición genética de la especie. Existen muchos modelos empíricos y basados en procesos para apoyar al manejo forestal. Sin embargo, la mayoría de estos modelos no tienen en cuenta el impacto de los cambios ambientales y la gestión forestal sobre la diversidad genética ni sobre la tasa de adaptación a los procesos críticos de la planta. Cómo la diversidad genética y la tasa de adaptación dependerá de las acciones de gestión es un paso futuro decisivo en el desarrollo de los modelos. Los enfoques de modelización de los procesos genéticos y demográficos que operan en los bosques se clasifican en dos clases. Un enfoque asume las condiciones de equilibrio en el fenotipo y la densidad de árboles, y analiza las características de la demografía y el sistema genético de las especies que determinan la velocidad a la que se alcanza ese equilibrio. El otro enfoque de modelización no asume las condiciones de equilibrio y describe tanto los procesos ecológicos y genéticos para analizar cómo los cambios ambientales influyen en la presión de selección en características funcionales de los árboles y en las consecuencias de esta selección para el árbol y el funcionamiento de los ecosistemas. El enfoque de equilibrio permite analizar la tasa de recuperación después de una perturbación en un entorno estable, es decir, hacia el mismo estado que antes de la perturbación estable. El enfoque de no-equilibrio permite, además del enfoque de equilibrio, el análisis de las consecuencias de los actuales cambios del medio ambiente y la ordenación forestal, es decir, ambientes no estacionarios, en el funcionamiento de árboles, la composición de especies, y la composición genética de los árboles en el ecosistema forestal. En este trabajo se describen estos dos métodos de modelización y se discuten las ventajas y desventajas de ellos y las lagunas actuales de conocimientos

A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU

Pine wood nematode, B. xylophilus poses a serious threat for the European forest industry. This study applies a quantitative risk assessment to analyze the risk of pine wood nematode in the EU, by estimating the reduction expected within forestry stock available for wood supply and its downstream roundwood market. Spatial analysis is used to join information on climate suitability, host distribution, pest spread and value of assets. Economic impacts are presented spatially on a NUTS-2 scale based on partial budgeting technique and for the EU as a whole based on partial equilibrium modeling. Results highlight the Southern regions of Europe as high risk areas with a total impact on available forestry stock of 19,000 M € after 20 years of an outbreak and no regulatory control measures. Welfare analysis of the roundwood market, in which its production represents 2,5% of forestry stock, demonstrates the ability of the producers to pass most of the negative impact to the consumers by charging higher prices. Reduction in social welfare estimated at 2,043 M €, where consumer surplus decreased by 2,622 M € and net producer surplus, affected and non-affected producers, increased by 579 M €.Risk assessment, pine wood nematode, economic analysis, EU, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

Carbon recombination lines in the Orion Bar

We have carried out VLA D-array observations of the C91alpha carbon recombination line as well as Effelsberg 100-m observations of the C65alpha line in a 5 arcmin square region centered between the Bar and the Trapezium stars in the Orion Nebula with spatial resolutions of 10 arcsec and 40 arcsec, respectively. The results show the ionized carbon in the PDR associated with the Orion Bar to be in a thin, clumpy layer sandwiched between the ionization front and the molecular gas. From the observed line widths we get an upper limit on the temperature in the C+ layer of 1500 K and from the line intensity a hydrogen density between 5 10^4 and 2.5 10^5 cm-3 for a homogeneous medium. The observed carbon level population is not consistent with predictions of hydrogenic recombination theory but could be explained by dielectronic recombination. The layer of ionized carbon seen in C91alpha is found to be essentially coincident with emission in the v=1-0 S(1) line of vibrationally excited molecular hydrogen. This is surprising in the light of current PDR models and some possible explanations of the discrepancy are discussed.Comment: 9 pages, 3 Postscript figures, uses aaspp4 and psfig, To Appear in ApJ Letters (accepted Jul. 24, 1997

Physical Conditions in Orion's Veil

Orion's veil consists of several layers of largely neutral gas lying between us and the main ionizing stars of the Orion nebula. It is visible in 21cm H I absorption and in optical and UV absorption lines of H I and other species. Toward the Trapezium, the veil has two remarkable properties, high magnetic field (~100 microGauss) and a surprising lack of molecular hydrogen given its total hydrogen column density. Here we compute photoionization models of the veil to establish its gas density and its distance from the Trapezium. We use a greatly improved model of the hydrogen molecule that determines level populations in ~1e5 rotational/vibrational levels and provides improved estimates of molecular hydrogen destruction via the Lyman-Werner bands. Our best fit photoionization models place the veil 1-3 pc in front of the star at a density of 1e3-1e4 cubic centimeters. Magnetic energy dominates the energy of non-thermal motions in at least one of the 21cm H I velocity components. Therefore, the veil is the first interstellar environment where magnetic dominance appears to exist. We find that the low ratio of molecular to atomic hydrogen (< 1e-4) is a consequence of high UV flux incident upon the veil due to its proximity to the Trapezium stars and the absence of small grains in the region.Comment: 45 pages, 20 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

NIR Spectroscopy with the VLT of a sample of ISO selected Hubble Deep Field South Galaxies

A new population of faint galaxies characterized by an extremely high rate of evolution with redshift up to z~1.5 has recently been discovered by ISO. These sources are likely to contribute significantly to the cosmic far-IR extragalactic background. We have carried out near-infrared VLT-ISAAC spectroscopy of a sample of ISOCAM galaxies from the Hubble Deep Field South. The rest-frame R-band spectral properties of the ISO population resembles that of powerful dust-enshrouded active starburst galaxies.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, to appear in "ISO Surveys of a Dusty Universe", eds. D. Lemke, M. Stickel, K. Wilke, typos correcte

ALMA Maps of Dust and Warm Dense Gas Emission in the Starburst Galaxy IC 5179⋆^\star

We present our high-resolution ($0^{\prime\prime}.15\times0^{\prime\prime}.13$, $\sim$34 pc) observations of the CO(6-5) line emission, which probes the warm and dense molecular gas, and the 434 $\mu$m dust continuum emission in the nuclear region of the starburst galaxy IC 5179, conducted with the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA). The CO(6-5) emission is spatially distributed in filamentary structures with many dense cores and shows a velocity field that is characteristic of a circum-nuclear rotating gas disk, with 90% of the rotation speed arising within a radius of $\lesssim150$ pc. At the scale of our spatial resolution, the CO(6-5) and dust emission peaks do not always coincide, with their surface brightness ratio varying by a factor of $\sim$10. This result suggests that their excitation mechanisms are likely different, as further evidenced by the Southwest to Northeast spatial gradient of both CO-to-dust continuum ratio and Pa-$\alpha$ equivalent width. Within the nuclear region (radius$\sim$300 pc) and with a resolution of $\sim$34 pc, the CO line flux (dust flux density) detected in our ALMA observations is $180\pm18$ Jy km/s ($71\pm7$ mJy), which account for 22% (2.4%) of the total value measured by Herschel.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Letter of A. C. V. R. to a Mr. J. I. [G?] Van Heulen

Another letter of A.C.V.R. to a Mr. J. I. [G?] Van Heulen, who is seeking A.C.V.R.\u27s advice where to settle in America. A.C.V.R. advises either Holland, Michigan, or Amelia, Virginia. Since the Van Heulens have ten children, A.C.V.R. advises him to buy a farm. A.C.V.R added: On account of death and continual sickness in the family, I am since one and one half year in Michigan.https://digitalcommons.hope.edu/vrp_1870s/1036/thumbnail.jp