Adding value through policy-oriented research: reflections of a scholar-practitioner

Any evaluation of the benefits of policy-oriented social science research faces fundamental difficulties. These include the uncertainty in determining a causal link between research and the outcome of a policy or the value of a policy outcome. Nonetheless, firm connections can be established between policy research and policy outcomes if there are strong links that bridge the gaps between social science research and the various parts of the policy process. These connections can be established often enough to make it possible to learn about the relationship between research and outcome and the key variables that affect the social profitability of the underlying research. This essay uses the author's experience with agricultural price policies in Asia, Indonesia in particular, to examine these connections. Four issues pervade the analysis of price policy in Asia: How does an analyst know what policy is best? How can an analyst best communicate the results of research to policymakers? Can a new policy be implemented? Does the new policy work? This last issue, the evaluation of policy, is often neglected, but it can provide an important input into the design of policy and should be made an integral part of any policy process. The author's experience in Indonesia suggests four factors that can make policy-oriented research successful. First, the analyst should be involved with the same policymakers or in the same policy setting for the long term. Second, there is a need to find a balance between keeping analysis and advice confidential and the ultimate publication of the key models and results. Third, the analysts should rely on the analytical paradigms of the mainstream of the economic profession even while examining deviations from their underlying assumptions. Lastly, there should be continuing demand from policymakers for problem-oriented analysis.Social sciences Research., Prices Government policy Bangladesh., Indonesia Economic policy., Impact assessment,

Pathways out of poverty during an economic crisis : an empirical assessment of rural Indonesia

Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy, whether they are realized in farming, in rural nonfarm enterprises, or by way of rural-urban migration. The authors use cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board for 1993 and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most successful over this period. The findings suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural nonfarm enterprises is an important route out of rural poverty, but that most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining rural and agricultural. So changes in agricultural prices, wages, and productivity still play a critical role in moving people out of poverty.Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Theory&Research

Pathways Out of Poverty During an Economic Crisis: An Empirical Assessment of Rural Indonesia

Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy, whether they are realised in farming, rural non-farm enterprises or via rural-urban migration. We use cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board (BPS) for 1993 and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most successful over this period. Our findings suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural non-farm enterprises is an important route out of rural poverty, but that most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining rural and agricultural. Thus changes in agricultural prices, wages and productivity still play a critical role in moving people out of poverty.Poverty dynamics, non-farm sector, micro-growth regression

The Rapid Rise of Supermarkets in Developing Countries: Induced Organizational, Institutional, and Technological Change in Agrifood Systems

There has been extremely rapid transformation of the food retail sector in developing regions in the past 5 to 10 years, accompanied by a further consolidation and multi-nationalization of the supermarket sector itself. This organizational change, accompanied by intense competition, has driven changes in the organization of procurement systems of supermarket chains, toward centralized and regionalized systems, use of specialized/dedicated wholesalers and preferred supplier systems, and demanding, private quality standards. These changes in the system have in turn determined the very recent rise of the use of contracts between supermarkets and agrifood producers in these regions to cover provision of services and provision for risk management, as well as requirements for demanding quality and safety attributes, which require substantial investment in technological change and upgrading at the producer level. This paper presents a brief discussion of these trends, followed by a conceptual framework to explain this phenomenon, illustrated with empirical evidence drawn mainly from Latin America.supermarket chains, procurement systems, quality standards, agrifood producers, Agribusiness,

Estimating Real Production and Expenditures Across Nations: A Proposal for Improving the Penn World Tables

In this paper we propose a new approach to international comparisons of real GDP measured from the output-side. The traditional Geary-Khamis system to measure real GDP from the expenditure-side is modified to include differences in the terms of trade between countries. It is shown that this system has a strictly positive solution under mild assumptions. On the basis of a set of domestic final output, import and export prices and values for 14 European countries and the U.S. it is shown that differences between real GDP measured from the expenditure and output-side can be substantial, especially for small open economies.

Confluence reduction for Markov automata

Markov automata are a novel formalism for specifying systems exhibiting nondeterminism, probabilistic choices and Markovian rates. Recently, the process algebra MAPA was introduced to efficiently model such systems. As always, the state space explosion threatens the analysability of the models generated by such specifications. We therefore introduce confluence reduction for Markov automata, a powerful reduction technique to keep these models small. We define the notion of confluence directly on Markov automata, and discuss how to syntactically detect confluence on the MAPA language as well. That way, Markov automata generated by MAPA specifications can be reduced on-the-fly while preserving divergence-sensitive branching bisimulation. Three case studies demonstrate the significance of our approach, with reductions in analysis time up to an order of magnitude

Transformation of Char Carbon During Bubbling Fluidized Bed Gasification of Biomass

This study focuses on the fate of carbon in the char generated by devolatilization of biomass during fluidized bed gasification. A carbon balance model was developed to distinguish between char transformed to carbon-bearing gases and its comminution and elutriation as fine char during gasification. The model accurately predicts the transient accumulation of char carbon in the reactor. Experiments revealed steady state reactor char carbon loadings were achieved after multiple hours of gasification. The model formed the basis of an experimental methodology that assesses the transformation of char carbon based on collection of elutriated solids from the reactor and assessment of the steady state char carbon loading in the reactor. Experiments were performed to distinguish the relative contributions of chemical reaction and physical comminution toward conversion of char to gaseous and solid products. The effects of equivalence ratio, gasification temperature, superficial gas velocity, biomass particle size, and the addition of steam on the partitioning of char carbon between gaseous and solid products during gasification of ground seed corn in a bubbling fluidized bed were investigated. This study revealed that char conversion during gasification of biomass was limited by elutriation of fine char particles arising from fragmentation or attrition of primary char product. Additionally, increased chemical reaction of char to form gases was usually accompanied by increased elutriation of fine char, which suggests that chemical reaction increased the porosity of the char and its susceptibility to fragmentation and attrition. Finally, decreasing superficial gas velocity, increasing equivalence ratio, and decreasing particle size led to increased carbon conversion, while increasing temperature and steam concentration in the reactor had negligible effect

Intra-day Variability of Sagittarius A* at 3 Millimeters

We report observations and analysis of flux monitoring of Sagittarius A* at 3-mm wavelength using the OVRO millimeter interferometer over a period of eight days (2002 May 23-30). Frequent phase and flux referencing (every 5 minutes) with the nearby calibrator source J1744-312 was employed to control for instrumental and atmospheric effects. Time variations are sought by computing and subtracting, from each visibility in the database, an average visibility obtained from all the data acquired in our monitoring program having similar uv spacings. This removes the confusing effects of baseline-dependent, correlated flux interference caused by the static, thermal emission from the extended source Sgr A West. Few-day variations up to ~20% and intra-day variability of \~20% and in some cases up to ~40% on few-hour time scales emerge from the differenced data on SgrA*. Power spectra of the residuals indicate the presence of hourly variations on all but two of the eight days. Monte Carlo simulation of red-noise light curves indicates that the hourly variations are well described by a red-noise power spectrum with P(f) ~ f^(-1). Of particular interest is a ~2.5 hour variation seen prominently on two consecutive days. An average power spectrum from all eight days of data reveals noteworthy power on this time scale. There is some indication that few-hour variations are more pronounced on days when the average daily flux is highest. We briefly discuss the possibility that these few-hour variations are due to the dynamical modulation of accreting gas around the central supermassive black hole, as well as the implications for the structure of the SgrA* photosphere at 3 mm. Finally, these data have enabled us to produce a high sensitivity 3-mm map of the extended thermal emission surrounding SgrA*.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 8 pages, 4 figure