Real business cycle theory: a guide, an evaluation, and new direction

An evaluation of the state of real business cycle theory, with an outline of useful directions for further research and a discussion of economic policy implications.Business cycles ; Japan ; Great Britain

New evidence connecting exchange rates to business cycles

Gross domestic product ; Business cycles ; Foreign exchange rates

The equilibrium to exchange rates

An abstract for this article is not availableForeign exchange rates

The equilibrium to exchange rates

An abstract for this article is not availableForeign exchange rates

Inflation, growth, and financial intermediation - commentary

Inflation (Finance)

Effects of Inflation on the Pattern of International Trade

This paper examines the relationship between inflation, exchange rates, and the pattern of international trade and payments in a small economy with utility-maximizing agents and a transactions demand for money. Fully anticipated inflation has real effects in the model through its role as a tax on money and thereby on monetary transactions. An increase in the rate of monetary expansion generally reduces the value of domestic output and alters the composition of domestic production. The result is a change in the pattern of international comparative advantage and trade flows. The initial depreciation of the exchange rate following an increase in the rate of monetary expansion is accompanied by a trade surplus and capital outflow, while the subsequent depreciation is accompanied by a trade deficit.

Fiscal Policies and International Financial Markets

This paper examines the effects of fiscal policies in an open economy when international financial markets are well developed. Consumers use these markets to hedge against the risk of uncertain future changes in government policies. These portfolio allocations alter the effects of changes in government policies, if and when they occur, as compared to a world with more limited financial markets. Three examples are discussed. The first involves a change in (productive) government spending, financed by a change in lump-sum taxes, in a large open economy with two goods. The second example concerns the effects of temporary changes in distorting taxes. The final example concerns the open-economy effects of changes in government deficits, due to changes in lump-sum taxes, without Ricardian equivalence. In each example the existence of opportunities to trade on well-developed international financial markets is shown to alter, in important ways, the effects of changes in government policies. The empirical significance of these differences should grow as international financial markets continue to develop in breadth and sophistication.

Self-fulfillment Expectations, Speculation Attacks, and Capitol Controls

This paper examines the endogenous implementation of capital controls in the context of a fixed exchange rate regime. It is shown that if there exists a non-zero probability that the policymaker's response to a speculative attack on official foreign reserves will be the introduction of controls, such an attack may occur even when current and expected monetary policy is consistent with a permanently viable, control-free fixed exchange rate regime. Consequently, capital controls may be the outcome of self- fulfilling expectations rather than the result of imprudent economic policies.