931 research outputs found
Aggregation, Heterogeneous Autoregression and Volatility of Daily International Tourist Arrivals and Exchange Rates
Tourism is a major source of service receipts for many countries, including Taiwan. The two leading tourism countries for Taiwan, comprising a high proportion of world tourist arrivals to Taiwan, are Japan and USA, which are sources of short and long haul tourism, respectively. As it is well known that a strong domestic currency can have adverse effects on international tourist arrivals, daily data from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2008 are used to model the world price and US and Yen/ New Taiwan / New Taiwan exchange rates, are statistically adequate and have sensible interpretations. Asymmetry (though not leverage) is found for several alternative HAR models for the world, US and Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan. For policy purposes, these empirical results suggest that an arbitrary choice of data frequency or spatial aggregation will not lead to robust findings as they are generally not independent of the level of aggregation used.exchange rates;GARCH;G32;EGARCH;HAR;GJR;global financial crisis;approximate long memory;asymmetry, leverage;daily effects;international tourist arrivals;spatial aggregation;temporal aggregation;weekly effects
Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Volatility for Korea and Taiwan
Both domestic and international tourism are a major source of service export receipts for many countries worldwide, and is also increasingly important in Taiwan. One of the three leading tourism source countries for Taiwan is the Republic of Korea, which is a source of short haul tourism. Daily data from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2008 are used to model the Korean Won / New Taiwan exchange rate are statistically adequate and have sensible interpretations. Asymmetry (though not leverage) is found for several alternative HAR models.exchange rates;GARCH;leverage;asymmetry;long memory;EGARCH;HAR;Korean tourist arrivals;GJR;global financial crisis;approximate price effect
Daily tourist arrivals, exchange rates and volatility for Korea and Taiwan
Both domestic and international tourism are a major source of service export receipts for many countries worldwide, and is also increasingly important in Taiwan. One of the three leading tourism source countries for Taiwan is the Republic of Korea, which is a source of short haul tourism. Daily data from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2008 are used to model the Korean Won / New Taiwan exchange rate are statistically adequate and have sensible interpretations. Asymmetry (though not leverage) is found for several alternative HAR models.exchange rates;GARCH;leverage;asymmetry;long memory;Asian economic and financial crisis;EGARCH;HAR;Korean tourist arrivals;GJR;approximate price effects;global financial crisis
Comparing Tests of Autoregressive Versus Moving Average Errors in Regression Models Using Bahadur's Asymptotic Relative Efficiency,
The purpose of this paper is to use Bahadur's asymptotic relative efficiency measure to compare the performance of various tests of autoregressive (AR) versus moving average (MA) error processes in regression models. Tests to be examined include non-nested procedures of the models against each other, and classical procedures based upon testing both the AR and MA error processes against the more general autoregressive-moving average model.
Forecasting Realized Volatility with Linear and Nonlinear Models
In this paper we consider a nonlinear model based on neural networks as well as linear models to forecast the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 indexes. As a proxy for daily volatility, we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator of the integrated volatility that is computed from high frequency intra-day returns. We also consider a simple algorithm based on bagging (bootstrap aggregation) in order to specify the models analyzed in the paper.
What do Experts Know About Ranking Journal Quality? A Comparison with ISI Research Impact in Finance
Experts possess knowledge and information that are not publicly available. The paper is concerned with the ranking of academic journal quality and research impact using a survey of experts from a national project on ranking academic finance journals. A comparison is made with publicly available bibliometric data, namely the Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Science citations database (hereafter ISI) for the Business - Finance category. The paper analyses the leading international journals in Finance using expert scores and quantifiable Research Assessment Measures (RAMs), and highlights the similarities and differences in the expert scores and alternative RAMs, where the RAMs are based on alternative transformations of citations taken from the ISI database. Alternative RAMs may be calculated annually or updated daily to answer the perennial questions as to When, Where and How (frequently) published papers are cited (see Chang et al. (2011a, b, c)). The RAMs include the most widely used RAM, namely the classic 2-year impact factor including journal self citations (2YIF), 2-year impact factor excluding journal self citations (2YIF*), 5-year impact factor including journal self citations (5YIF), Immediacy (or zero-year impact factor (0YIF)), Eigenfactor, Article Influence, C3PO (Citation Performance Per Paper Online), h-index, PI-BETA (Papers Ignored - By Even The Authors), 2-year Self-citation Threshold Approval Ratings (2Y-STAR), Historical Self-citation Threshold Approval Ratings (H-STAR), Impact Factor Inflation (IFI), and Cited Article Influence (CAI). As data are not available for 5YIF, Article Influence and CAI for 13 of the leading 34 journals considered, 10 RAMs are analysed for 21 highly-cited journals in Finance. Harmonic mean rankings of the 10 RAMs for the 34 highly-cited journals are also presented. It is shown that emphasizing the 2-year impact factor of a journal, which partly answers the question as to When published papers are cited, to the exclusion of other informative RAMs, which answer Where and How (frequently) published papers are cited, can lead to a distorted evaluation of journal impact and influence relative to the Harmonic Mean rankings. A simple regression model is used to predict expert scores on the basis of RAMs that capture journal impact, journal policy, the number of high quality papers, and quantitative information about a journal.IFI;PI-BETA;STAR;article influence;eigenfactor;h-index;C3PO;impact factor;research assessment measures;C81;C83;C18;expert scores;journal quality
How Volatile is ENSO?
The El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO) is a periodical phenomenon of climatic interannual variability which could be measured through either the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Index. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze these two indexes in order to capture ENSO volatility. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility. Moreover, 1998 is a turning point for the volatility of SOI, and the ENSO volatility has became stronger since 1998 which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased.GARCH;Volatility;EGARCH;GJR;ENSO;SOI;SOT
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