Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

This research article published by MDPI, 2021This study provides a detailed assessment of land cover (LC) changes on the water balance components on data constrained Kikafu-Weruweru-Karanga (KWK) watershed, using the integrated approaches of hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression (PLSR). The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was validated and used to simulate hydrologic responses of water balance components response to changes in LC in spatial and temporal scale. PLSR was further used to assess the influence of individual LC classes on hydrologic components. PLSR results revealed that expansion in cultivation land and built-up area are the main attributes in the changes in water yield, surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater flow. The study findings suggest that improving the vegetation cover on the hillside and abandoned land area could help to reduce the direct surface runoff in the KWK watershed, thus, reducing flooding recurring in the area, and that with the ongoing expansion in agricultural land and built-up areas, there will be profound negative impacts in the water balance of the watershed in the near future (2030). This study provides a forecast of the future hydrological parameters in the study area based on changes in land cover if the current land cover changes go unattended. This study provides useful information for the advancement of our policies and practices essential for sustainable water management planning

Predicting land use/cover changes and its association to agricultural production on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

This research article published by Taylor & Francis Online, 2021Increasing demand for food production results in Land use and land cover (LULC) changes, which afflicts the provision of ecosystem services in high mountain areas. This work used time-series LULC and selected spatial metrics to predict the LULC changes for Kikafu-Weruweru-Karanga (KWK) watershed (on the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro) for the next decade. LULC maps were generated by classifying time-series satellite images. We further predicted the implications for selected staple crop production over the next decade. The simulated LULC shows expansion in built-up (by 32.55%/27.04 km2) and agriculture (by 39.52%/52.0 km2) areas from 2018 to 2030. These results suggest that urbanization is likely the next biggest threat to water availability and food production. Grasslands and wetlands are expected to decrease by 57.24% and 39.29%, respectively. The forest area is likely to shrink by 6.37%, about 9.82 km2, and 1.26 km2 being converted to agriculture and built-up areas, respectively. However, expansion in agricultural land shows very little increase in staple food crop production records, suggesting that farm size plays a minor role in increasing crop production. Predicting the near future LULC around KWK is useful for evaluating the likelihood of achieving development and conservation targets that are set locally, nationally and internationally

East Africa Future Water Scenarios to 2050

We have analysed two possible development scenarios for the extended Lake Victoria Basin (eLVB.) Each scenario combines a plausible socio-economic development pathway with climate change impacts calculated for the GHG concentration pathway RCP6.0 (i.e. medium climate change). A Reference Scenario (REF) applies the storyline and quantification of one of the IPCC’s Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP), the ‘Middle of the Road’ scenario (SSP2). The East-Africa Regional Vision scenario (EA-RVS) portrays the vision of the region, as expressed in several vision studies and the first stakeholder workshop of the study. - Data comes as Excel files - Supplementary to the report: East Africa Water Scenarios to 2050 - The Excel Files have been used in the second workshop “East Africa Future Water Scenarios to 2050”, from December 4-6, 2018 in Entebbe, Uganda, for consultation and joint learning and for discussion and fine-tuning of modelling result

Rural wood fuel consumption and deforestation in Tanzania: A case of two selected villages in Mvomero district

This paper presents the results of the study which focused on rural wood fuel consumption and deforestation in two selected villages in Mvomero District. The objectives of study were to examine types and amount of wood fuel consumed by households, and to determine the extent to which wood fuel consumption cause deforestation. Stratified random sampling method was applied to select 90 households for interviews in the study area. The study established that in the year of study, the two study villages' annual fuel wood consumption was 50,838.2 m3 and 1,202.04 tons of charcoal. As a result of this rate of consumption, about 1,056.88 hectares of forest were cleared to meet the wood fuel demand in the study area. The study concludes that wood fuel consumption in the study area is very high and environmentally unsustainable in such a way that if continues unchecked, will result in devastating situation of deforestation. It recommends that immediate and long term measures should be undertaken to rescue the situation. Immediate measures include promotion of the use of wood saving stoves and use of alternative sources such as solar energy, biogas and briquettes made from biomass. The long-term measures include implementation of reforestation and rural electrification programmes.Institute of Rural Development Planning (IRDP

East Africa Future Water Scenarios to 2050

We have analysed two possible development scenarios for the extended Lake Victoria Basin (eLVB.) Each scenario combines a plausible socio-economic development pathway with climate change impacts calculated for the GHG concentration pathway RCP6.0 (i.e. medium climate change). A Reference Scenario (REF) applies the storyline and quantification of one of the IPCC’s Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP), the ‘Middle of the Road’ scenario (SSP2). The East-Africa Regional Vision scenario (EA-RVS) portrays the vision of the region, as expressed in several vision studies and the first stakeholder workshop of the study. - Data comes as Excel files - Supplementary to the report: East Africa Water Scenarios to 2050 - The Excel Files have been used in the second workshop “East Africa Future Water Scenarios to 2050”, from December 4-6, 2018 in Entebbe, Uganda, for consultation and joint learning and for discussion and fine-tuning of modelling result

East African Community Water Vision. Regional Scenarios for Human - Natural Water System Transformations

The development of and access to freshwater resources is fundamental if East Africa aims to achieve its goal of increased economic growth. Following vision documents for regional development and working together with local stakeholders, we developed water scenarios up to 2050 that inform the hydro-economic modelling analysis for the extended Lake Victoria Basin, the headwaters of the Nile River. Results indicate a 4-5 fold increase in water demand, especially for expanding irrigation and domestic water needs. Together with climate and land use change, the discharge and flow regime of the Nile will remain relatively stable. However, if this is to be achieved, while sufficient water is preserved for environmental needs, a large fraction of future water infrastructure must rely on advanced, often costly, technological, and management options. The interconnected analysis, between up-stream and down-stream water resources and sectoral water demand, guided by co-developed scenarios, supports planning of sustainable water pathways

Data related to research project: East Africa Water Scenarios to 2050

We have analysed two possible development scenarios (Table 1) for the extended Lake Victoria Basin (eLVB.) Each scenario combines a plausible socio-economic development pathway with climate change impacts calculated for the GHG concentration pathway RCP6.0 (i.e. medium climate change)

Data related to research project: East Africa Water Scenarios to 2050

We have analysed two possible development scenarios (Table 1) for the extended Lake Victoria Basin (eLVB.) Each scenario combines a plausible socio-economic development pathway with climate change impacts calculated for the GHG concentration pathway RCP6.0 (i.e. medium climate change)

Co-development of East African regional water scenarios for 2050

The development of and access to freshwater resources in East Africa is fundamental to the region's sustainable development goals. Following vision documents for regional development and working with local stakeholders, we developed water scenarios up to 2050 that inform the hydro-economic modeling analysis of the extended Lake Victoria Basin, the headwaters of the Nile River. Water scenarios that take an integrated approach to assessing the combined effects of climate change, land use, and increasing human water use suggest that the flow regime of the Nile may remain relatively stable. However, if this stability is to be achieved, while at the same time sufficient water is preserved for healthy freshwater ecosystems, a large fraction of water infrastructure must rely on advanced, often costly technologies and management. Interconnected analyses of both upstream and downstream water resources over time, guided by co-developed scenarios, are indispensable for planning sustainable water-development pathways