A Multi-Phase Approach for Product Hierarchy Forecasting in Supply Chain Management: Application to MonarchFx Inc

Hierarchical time series demands exist in many industries and are often associated with the product, time frame, or geographic aggregations. Traditionally, these hierarchies have been forecasted using top-down, bottom-up, or middle-out approaches. The question we aim to answer is how to utilize child-level forecasts to improve parent-level forecasts in a hierarchical supply chain. Improved forecasts can be used to considerably reduce logistics costs, especially in e-commerce. We propose a novel multi-phase hierarchical (MPH) approach. Our method involves forecasting each series in the hierarchy independently using machine learning models, then combining all forecasts to allow a second phase model estimation at the parent level. Sales data from MonarchFx Inc. (a logistics solutions provider) is used to evaluate our approach and compare it to bottom-up and top-down methods. Our results demonstrate an 82-90% improvement in forecast accuracy using the proposed approach. Using the proposed method, supply chain planners can derive more accurate forecasting models to exploit the benefit of multivariate data.Comment: 25 pages, 2 figures, 8 table

The ontology of causal process theories

There is a widespread belief that the so-called process theories of causation developed by Wesley Salmon and Phil Dowe have given us an original account of what causation really is. In this paper, I show that this is a misconception. The notion of "causal process" does not offer us a new ontological account of causation. I make this argument by explicating the implicit ontological commitments in Salmon and Dowe's theories. From this, it is clear that Salmon's Mark Transmission Theory collapses to a counterfactual theory of causation, while the Conserved Quantity Theory collapses to David Fair's phsyicalist reduction of causation

Analysis of Quality in Brazilian E-Commerce (B2C)

The business world has changed the way how people think and act on products and services. In this context, the most recent amendment of the scenarios of retail operations has been the use of technology in sales and distribution. The internet has revolutionized the way people communicate, and moreover as they purchase their goods and services. Thus, the e-commerce, specifically the relation business to customer, or simply B2C, has acted so convincingly in this change of paradigm, namely the purchases in the physical location for the virtual site. Quotes online, ease of payment, price, speed of delivery, have become real order winners of applications for companies that compete in this segment. With the focus on quality of services on e-commerce, the research examines the dimension related to the quality of services, and looks for what of these factors are winners of applications. © 2010 IFIP International Federation for Information Processing

Snap-shot assessment of adult mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) densities on the Turks and Caicos Islands, February 2022

In many of the small island communities of the Caribbean, much of the vector surveillance effort is focussed on house-to-house peri-focal surveys to collect data on larval indices. Adult mosquito trapping is not always routine or affordable and is usually focussed on ad hoc biting issues or small-scale investigations. This makes understanding the relative importance and densities of the common urban mosquitoes, such as Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus, problematic. This snap-shot survey in February 2022 using BG-Sentinel traps at 30 different locations across five islands of the Turks and Caicos, aimed to provide the first island-wide assessment of urban mosquito densities. In total, 2,820 adult mosquitoes were collected over 285 trap nights. Aedes aegypti was most common on the island of Providenciales, with very low densities recorded on South Caicos, North and Middle Caicos, with Ae. aegypti most highly abundant in the main commercial centres. The highest densities of Cx. quinquefasciatus were trapped on North Caicos. Small numbers of other species were also collected, including the first record of Anopheles in TCI. This established framework of trapping and initial assessment provides a platform for continued monitoring of mosquitoes in TCI to better inform mosquito-borne disease risk assessment and future vector control efforts

IL-27 signaling activates skin cells to induce innate antiviral proteins and protects against Zika virus infection

In the skin, antiviral proteins and other immune molecules serve as the first line of innate antiviral defense. Here, we identify and characterize the induction of cutaneous innate antiviral proteins in response to IL-27 and its functional role during cutaneous defense against Zika virus infection. Transcriptional and phenotypic profiling of epidermal keratinocytes treated with IL-27 demonstrated activation of antiviral proteins OAS1, OAS2, OASL, and MX1 in the skin of both mice and humans. IL-27–mediated antiviral protein induction was found to occur in a STAT1- and IRF3-dependent but STAT2-independent manner. Moreover, using IL27ra mice, we demonstrate a significant role for IL-27 in inhibiting Zika virus morbidity and mortality following cutaneous, but not intravenous, inoculation. Together, our results demonstrate a critical and previously unrecognized role for IL-27 in cutaneous innate antiviral immunity against Zika virus

The academic backbone: longitudinal continuities in educational achievement from secondary school and medical school to MRCP(UK) and the specialist register in UK medical students and doctors

Background: Selection of medical students in the UK is still largely based on prior academic achievement, although doubts have been expressed as to whether performance in earlier life is predictive of outcomes later in medical school or post-graduate education. This study analyses data from five longitudinal studies of UK medical students and doctors from the early 1970s until the early 2000s. Two of the studies used the AH5, a group test of general intelligence (that is, intellectual aptitude). Sex and ethnic differences were also analyzed in light of the changing demographics of medical students over the past decades. Methods: Data from five cohort studies were available: the Westminster Study (began clinical studies from 1975 to 1982), the 1980, 1985, and 1990 cohort studies (entered medical school in 1981, 1986, and 1991), and the University College London Medical School (UCLMS) Cohort Study (entered clinical studies in 2005 and 2006). Different studies had different outcome measures, but most had performance on basic medical sciences and clinical examinations at medical school, performance in Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians (MRCP(UK)) examinations, and being on the General Medical Council Specialist Register. Results: Correlation matrices and path analyses are presented. There were robust correlations across different years at medical school, and medical school performance also predicted MRCP(UK) performance and being on the GMC Specialist Register. A-levels correlated somewhat less with undergraduate and post-graduate performance, but there was restriction of range in entrants. General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE)/O-level results also predicted undergraduate and post-graduate outcomes, but less so than did A-level results, but there may be incremental validity for clinical and post-graduate performance. The AH5 had some significant correlations with outcome, but they were inconsistent. Sex and ethnicity also had predictive effects on measures of educational attainment, undergraduate, and post-graduate performance. Women performed better in assessments but were less likely to be on the Specialist Register. Non-white participants generally underperformed in undergraduate and post-graduate assessments, but were equally likely to be on the Specialist Register. There was a suggestion of smaller ethnicity effects in earlier studies. Conclusions: The existence of the Academic Backbone concept is strongly supported, with attainment at secondary school predicting performance in undergraduate and post-graduate medical assessments, and the effects spanning many years. The Academic Backbone is conceptualized in terms of the development of more sophisticated underlying structures of knowledge ('cognitive capital’ and 'medical capital’). The Academic Backbone provides strong support for using measures of educational attainment, particularly A-levels, in student selection

Identification of Leishmania Proteins Preferentially Released in Infected Cells Using Change Mediated Antigen Technology (CMAT)

Although Leishmania parasites have been shown to modulate their host cell's responses to multiple stimuli, there is limited evidence that parasite molecules are released into infected cells. In this study, we present an implementation of the change mediated antigen technology (CMAT) to identify parasite molecules that are preferentially expressed in infected cells. Sera from mice immunized with cell lysates prepared from L. donovani or L. pifanoi-infected macrophages were adsorbed with lysates of axenically grown amastigotes of L. donovani or L. pifanoi, respectively, as well as uninfected macrophages. The sera were then used to screen inducible parasite expression libraries constructed with genomic DNA. Eleven clones from the L. pifanoi and the L. donovani screen were selected to evaluate the characteristics of the molecules identified by this approach. The CMAT screen identified genes whose homologs encode molecules with unknown function as well as genes that had previously been shown to be preferentially expressed in the amastigote form of the parasite. In addition a variant of Tryparedoxin peroxidase that is preferentially expressed within infected cells was identified. Antisera that were then raised to recombinant products of the clones were used to validate that the endogenous molecules are preferentially expressed in infected cells. Evaluation of the distribution of the endogenous molecules in infected cells showed that some of these molecules are secreted into parasitophorous vacuoles (PVs) and that they then traffic out of PVs in vesicles with distinct morphologies. This study is a proof of concept study that the CMAT approach can be applied to identify putative Leishmania parasite effectors molecules that are preferentially expressed in infected cells. In addition we provide evidence that Leishmania molecules traffic out of the PV into the host cell cytosol and nucleus

Application of In Vivo Induced Antigen Technology (IVIAT) to Bacillus anthracis

In vivo induced antigen technology (IVIAT) is an immuno-screening technique that identifies bacterial antigens expressed during infection and not during standard in vitro culturing conditions. We applied IVIAT to Bacillus anthracis and identified PagA, seven members of a N-acetylmuramoyl-L-alanine amidase autolysin family, three P60 family lipoproteins, two transporters, spore cortex lytic protein SleB, a penicillin binding protein, a putative prophage holin, respiratory nitrate reductase NarG, and three proteins of unknown function. Using quantitative real-time PCR comparing RNA isolated from in vitro cultured B. anthracis to RNA isolated from BALB/c mice infected with virulent Ames strain B. anthracis, we confirmed induced expression in vivo for a subset of B. anthracis genes identified by IVIAT, including L-alanine amidases BA3767, BA4073, and amiA (pXO2-42); the bacteriophage holin gene BA4074; and pagA (pXO1-110). The exogenous addition of two purified putative autolysins identified by IVIAT, N-acetylmuramoyl-L-alanine amidases BA0485 and BA2446, to vegetative B. anthracis cell suspensions induced a species-specific change in bacterial morphology and reduction in viable bacterial cells. Many of the proteins identified in our screen are predicted to affect peptidoglycan re-modeling, and our results support significant cell wall structural remodeling activity during B. anthracis infection. Identification of L-alanine amidases with B. anthracis specificity may suggest new potential therapeutic targets

General practitioners and tutors' experiences with peer group academic detailing: a qualitative study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Prescription Peer Academic Detailing (Rx-PAD) project is an educational intervention study aiming at improving GPs' competence in pharmacotherapy. GPs in CME peer groups were randomised to receive a tailored intervention, either to support a safer prescription practice for elderly patients or to improve prescribing of antibiotics to patients with respiratory tract infections. The project was based on the principles of peer group academic detailing, incorporating individual feedback on GPs' prescription patterns. We did a study to explore GPs and tutors' experiences with peer group academic detailing, and to explore GPs' reasons for deviating from recommended prescribing practice.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data was collected through nine focus group interviews with a total of 39 GPs and 20 tutors. Transcripts from the interviews were analyzed by two researchers according to a procedure for thematic content analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A shared understanding of the complex decision-making involved in prescribing in general practice was reported by both GPs and tutors as essential for an open discussion in the CME groups. Tutors experienced that CME groups differed regarding structure and atmosphere, and in some groups it was a challenge to run the scheme as planned. Individual feedback motivated GPs to reflect on and to improve their prescribing practice, though feedback reports could cause distress if the prescribing practice was unfavourable. Explanations for inappropriate prescriptions were lack of knowledge, factors associated with patients, the GP's background, the practice, and other health professionals or health care facilities.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>GPs and tutors experienced peer group academic detailing as a suitable method to discuss and learn more about pharmacotherapy. An important outcome for GPs was being more reflective about their prescriptions. Disclosure of inappropriate prescribing can cause distress in some doctors, and tutors must be prepared to recognise and manage such reactions.</p