Price forecasting and optimal operation of wholesale customers in a competitive electricity market

I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. I authorize the University of Waterloo to lend this thesis to other institutions or indi-viduals for the purpose of scholarly research. I further authorize the University of Waterloo to reproduce this thesis by photocopy-ing or by other means, in total or in part, at the request of other institutions or individuals for the purpose of scholarly research. i This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning of demand-side Bulk Electricity Market Customers (BEMCs). The Ontario electricity market is selected as the primary case market and its structure is stud-ied in detail. A set of explanatory variable candidates is then selected accordingly, which may explain price behavior in this market. In the process of selecting the explanatory variable candidates, some important issues, such as direct or indirect effects of the vari