On Objective Measures of Rule Surprisingness

Most of the literature argues that surprisingness is an inherently subjective aspect of the discovered knowledge, which cannot be measured in objective terms. This paper departs from this view, and it has a twofold goal: (1) showing that it is indeed possible to define objective (rather than subjective) measures of discovered rule surprisingness; (2) proposing new ideas and methods for defining objective rule surprisingness measures

Alternative causal inference methods in population health research: Evaluating tradeoffs and triangulating evidence.

Population health researchers from different fields often address similar substantive questions but rely on different study designs, reflecting their home disciplines. This is especially true in studies involving causal inference, for which semantic and substantive differences inhibit interdisciplinary dialogue and collaboration. In this paper, we group nonrandomized study designs into two categories: those that use confounder-control (such as regression adjustment or propensity score matching) and those that rely on an instrument (such as instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, or differences-in-differences approaches). Using the Shadish, Cook, and Campbell framework for evaluating threats to validity, we contrast the assumptions, strengths, and limitations of these two approaches and illustrate differences with examples from the literature on education and health. Across disciplines, all methods to test a hypothesized causal relationship involve unverifiable assumptions, and rarely is there clear justification for exclusive reliance on one method. Each method entails trade-offs between statistical power, internal validity, measurement quality, and generalizability. The choice between confounder-control and instrument-based methods should be guided by these tradeoffs and consideration of the most important limitations of previous work in the area. Our goals are to foster common understanding of the methods available for causal inference in population health research and the tradeoffs between them; to encourage researchers to objectively evaluate what can be learned from methods outside one's home discipline; and to facilitate the selection of methods that best answer the investigator's scientific questions

Learning, Social Intelligence and the Turing Test - why an "out-of-the-box" Turing Machine will not pass the Turing Test

The Turing Test (TT) checks for human intelligence, rather than any putative general intelligence. It involves repeated interaction requiring learning in the form of adaption to the human conversation partner. It is a macro-level post-hoc test in contrast to the definition of a Turing Machine (TM), which is a prior micro-level definition. This raises the question of whether learning is just another computational process, i.e. can be implemented as a TM. Here we argue that learning or adaption is fundamentally different from computation, though it does involve processes that can be seen as computations. To illustrate this difference we compare (a) designing a TM and (b) learning a TM, defining them for the purpose of the argument. We show that there is a well-defined sequence of problems which are not effectively designable but are learnable, in the form of the bounded halting problem. Some characteristics of human intelligence are reviewed including it's: interactive nature, learning abilities, imitative tendencies, linguistic ability and context-dependency. A story that explains some of these is the Social Intelligence Hypothesis. If this is broadly correct, this points to the necessity of a considerable period of acculturation (social learning in context) if an artificial intelligence is to pass the TT. Whilst it is always possible to 'compile' the results of learning into a TM, this would not be a designed TM and would not be able to continually adapt (pass future TTs). We conclude three things, namely that: a purely "designed" TM will never pass the TT; that there is no such thing as a general intelligence since it necessary involves learning; and that learning/adaption and computation should be clearly distinguished.Comment: 10 pages, invited talk at Turing Centenary Conference CiE 2012, special session on "The Turing Test and Thinking Machines

El Pla Territorial de l'illa de Menorca

El Pla Territorial de Menorca és un exemple d’aplicació dels criteris de desenvolupament sostenible a la realitat territorial de l’Illa. Aquests criteris condueixen tot el procés planificador i troben un bon suport en la societat menorquina, que és ben conscient de la qualitat, i també de la fragilitat, del seu territori. Menorca opta així per un model territorial diferenciat que pretén fer compatible economia i respecte als recursos naturals i al paisatge. El Pla introdueix mesures de protecció sobre la totalitat del sòl rústic, per tal de preservar la diversitat d’àmbits rurals, tant naturals com humanitzats, tots ells amb valor paisatgístic remarcable. Amplia els espais naturals protegits, de tal manera que es passa de tenir una sèrie inconnexa d’espais naturals protegits a establir un vertader sistema d’espais naturals protegits. Limita el creixement de les zones turístiques, a fi que aquestes puguin ser reconduïdes a paràmetres de més qualitat i preveu un desenvolupament harmònic dins els nuclis tradicionals de població

Content & Watkins's account of natural axiomatizations

This paper briefly recounts the importance of the notion of natural axiomatizations for explicating hypothetico-deductivism, empirical significance, theoretical reduction, and organic fertility. Problems for the account of natural axiomatizations developed by John Watkins in Science and Scepticism and the revised account developed by Elie Zahar are demonstrated. It is then shown that Watkins's account can be salvaged from various counter-examples in a principled way by adding the demand that every axiom of a natural axiomatization should be part of the content of the theory being axiomatized. The crucial point here is that content cannot simply be identified with the set of logical consequences of a theory, but must be restricted to a proper subset of the consequence set. It is concluded that the revised Watkins account has certain advantages over the account of natural axiomatizations offered in Gemes (1993)

Coordinated analysis of age, sex, and education effects on change in MMSE scores

Objectives. We describe and compare the expected performance trajectories of older adults on the Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE) across six independent studies from four countries in the context of a collaborative network of longitudinal studies of aging. A coordinated analysis approach is used to compare patterns of change conditional on sample composition differences related to age, sex, and education. Such coordination accelerates evaluation of particular hypotheses. In particular, we focus on the effect of educational attainment on cognitive decline.Method. Regular and Tobit mixed models were fit to MMSE scores from each study separately. The effects of age, sex, and education were examined based on more than one centering point.Results. Findings were relatively consistent across studies. On average, MMSE scores were lower for older individuals and declined over time. Education predicted MMSE score, but, with two exceptions, was not associated with decline in MMSE over time.Conclusion. A straightforward association between educational attainment and rate of cognitive decline was not supported. Thoughtful consideration is needed when synthesizing evidence across studies, as methodologies adopted and sample characteristics, such as educational attainment, invariably differ. © 2012 The Author

Neurological, Cognitive, and Psychological Findings Among Survivors of Ebola Virus Disease From the 1995 Ebola Outbreak in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo: A Cross-sectional Study.

BackgroundClinical sequelae of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have not been described more than 3 years postoutbreak. We examined survivors and close contacts from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and determined prevalence of abnormal neurological, cognitive, and psychological findings and their association with EVD survivorship.MethodsFrom August to September 2017, we conducted a cross-sectional study in Kikwit, DRC. Over 2 decades after the EVD outbreak, we recruited EVD survivors and close contacts from the outbreak to undergo physical examination and culturally adapted versions of the Folstein mini-mental status exam (MMSE) and Goldberg anxiety and depression scale (GADS). We estimated the strength of relationships between EVD survivorship and health outcomes using linear regression models by comparing survivors versus close contacts, adjusting for age, sex, educational level, marital status, and healthcare worker status.ResultsWe enrolled 20 EVD survivors and 187 close contacts. Among the 20 EVD survivors, 4 (20%) reported at least 1 abnormal neurological symptom, and 3 (15%) had an abnormal neurological examination. Among the 187 close contacts, 14 (11%) reported at least 1 abnormal neurologic symptom, and 9 (5%) had an abnormal neurological examination. EVD survivors had lower mean MMSE and higher mean GADS scores as compared to close contacts (MMSE: adjusted coefficient: -1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.63, -0.07; GADS: adjusted coefficient: 3.91; 95% CI: 1.76, 6.04).ConclusionsEVD survivors can have lower cognitive scores and more symptoms of depression and anxiety than close contacts more than 2 decades after Ebola virus outbreaks

Building the evidence on Making Health a Shared Value: Insights and considerations for research.

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF)'s Culture of Health Action Framework guides a movement to improve health and advance health equity across the nation. Action Area One of the Framework, Making Health a Shared Value, highlights the role of individual and community factors in achieving a societal commitment to health and health equity, centered around three drivers: Mindset and Expectations, Sense of Community, and Civic Engagement. To stimulate research about how Action Area One and its drivers may impact health, Evidence for Action (E4A), a signature research funding program of RWJF, developed and released a national Call for Proposals (CFP). The process of formulating the CFP and reviewing proposals surfaced important challenges for research on creating and sustaining shared values to foster and maintain a Culture of Health. In this essay, we describe these considerations and provide examples from funded projects regarding how challenges can be addressed

Genome-wide polygenic scoring for a 14-year long-term average depression phenotype

Background: Despite moderate heritability estimates for depression-related phenotypes, few robust genetic predictors have been identified. Potential explanations for this discrepancy include the use of phenotypic measures taken from a single time point, rather than integrating information over longer time periods via multiple assessments, and the possibility that genetic risk is shaped by multiple loci with small effects. Methods: We developed a 14-year long-term average depression measure based on 14 years of follow-up in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS; N = 6989 women). We estimated polygenic scores (PS) with internal whole-genome scoring (NHS-GWAS-PS). We also constructed PS by applying two external PS weighting algorithms from independent samples, one previously shown to predict depression (GAIN-MDD-PS) and another from the largest genome-wide analysis currently available (PGC-MDD-PS). We assessed the association of all three PS with our long-term average depression phenotype using linear, logistic, and quantile regressions. Results: In this study, the three PS approaches explained at most 0.2% of variance in the long-term average phenotype. Quantile regressions indicated PS had larger impacts at higher quantiles of depressive symptoms. Quantile regression coefficients at the 75th percentile were at least 40% larger than at the 25th percentile in all three polygenic scoring algorithms. The interquartile range comparison suggested the effects of PS significantly differed at the 25th and 75th percentiles of the long-term depressive phenotype for the PGC-MDD-PS (P = 0.03), and this difference also reached borderline statistical significance for the GAIN-MDD-PS (P = 0.05). Conclusions: Integrating multiple phenotype assessments spanning 14 years and applying different polygenic scoring approaches did not substantially improve genetic prediction of depression. Quantile regressions suggested the effects of PS may be largest at high quantiles of depressive symptom scores, presumably among people with additional, unobserved sources of vulnerability to depression