The Global Bioenergy Expansion: How Large Are the Food−Fuel Trade-Offs?

We summarize a large set of recent simulations and policy analyses based on FAPRI’s world multimarket, partial-equilibrium models. We first quantify and project the emergence of biofuel markets in US and world agriculture for the coming decade. Then, we perturb the models with incremental shocks in US and world ethanol consumption in deviation from this projected emergence to assess their effects on world agricultural and food markets. Various food-biofuel trade-offs are quantified and examined. Increases in food prices are moderate for the US ethanol expansion and even smaller for the ethanol expansion outside the United States, which is based on sugarcane feedstock, which has little feedback on other markets. With the US expansion, the high protection in the US ethanol market limits potential adjustments in the world ethanol markets and increases the demand for feedstock within the United States. Changes in US grain and oilseed market prices propagate to world markets, as the United States is a large exporter in these markets. With changes in world prices, land allocation in the rest of the world responds to the new relative prices as in the United States but with smaller magnitudes because price transmission to local markets is less than full.ethanol; biofuel; land effects; food prices; trade-offs

Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market multi-commodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates the tradeoffs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China, EU, and India, and compute shock multipliers for land allocation decisions for crops and countries of interest. The multipliers show at the margin how sensitive land allocation is to the growing demand for ethanol. Land moves away from major crops and pasture competing for resources with feedstock crops. Because of the high U.S. tariff on ethanol, higher U.S. demand for ethanol translates into a U.S. ethanol production expansion. The latter has global effects on land allocation as higher coarse grains prices transmit worldwide. Changes in U.S. coarse grain prices also affect U.S. wheat and oilseeds prices, which are all transmitted to world markets. In contrast, expansion in Brazil ethanol use and production chiefly affects land used for sugarcane production in Brazil and to a lesser extent in other sugar-producing countries, but with small impact on other land uses in most countries. Keywords: Acreage, area, biofuel, corn, crops, ethanol, FAPRI model, feedstock, land, sugar, sugarcane. JEL Code: Q42 Q17 Q15ethanol; acreage; area; biofuel; corn; crops; FAPRI model; feedstock; land; sugar; sugarcane

Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model

We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market, multi-commodity international FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) model. The model incorporates the trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China, the European Union-25, and India, and compute shock multipliers for land allocation decisions for crops and countries of interest. The multipliers show at the margin how sensitive land allocation is to the growing demand for ethanol. Land moves away from major crops and pasture competing for resources with feedstock crops. Because of the high U.S. tariff on ethanol, higher U.S. demand for ethanol translates into a U.S. ethanol production expansion. The latter has global effects on land allocation as higher coarse grain prices transmit worldwide. Changes in U.S. coarse grain prices also affect U.S. wheat and oilseed prices, which are all transmitted to world markets. In contrast, expansion in Brazil ethanol use and production chiefly affects land used for sugarcane production in Brazil and to a lesser extent in other sugar-producing countries, but with small impacts on other land uses in most countries.acreage; area; biofuel; corn; crops; ethanol; FAPRI model; feedstock; land; sugar; sugarcane

Giant second-harmonic generation in photonic crystal slabs possessing double-resonance bound states in the continuum

The ability to confine and guide light makes photonic crystals (PhCs) a promising platform for large local field enhancement, which enables efficient nonlinear processes at the nanoscale. Here, we utilize optical bound states in the continuum (BICs) to engineer sharp resonances with high quality factors. By investigating the angleresolved reflection spectra, we demonstrate that two PhC slabs with different configuration but the same lattice constant support a pair of at-Γ and a pair of off-Γ resonances, respectively. In both cases, BIC-type resonances are observed at the fundamental frequency while BIC-like resonances are found at the second harmonic. This double-resonance phenomenon is subsequently used to significantly enhance the second-harmonic generation from PhC slabs. The maximum values of the SHG are several orders of magnitude larger than those corresponding to the reference slabs. We consider that our approach based on double-resonance BICs provides a novel way to realize enhanced harmonic generation in photonic nanodevices

The Impact of The European Enlargement and CAP Reforms on Agricultural Markets. Much Ado about Nothing?

We analyze the effects of the 2004 CAP reform and EU enlargement on European and world agricultural markets. We compare the results from a CAP reform only and a CAP reform plus enlargement scenarios to a no-enlargement baseline implementing Agenda 2000 CAP policies. We utilize the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute's policy analysis model to simulate the effects of CAP reform and EU enlargement on production, consumption, and trade for the EU, its New Member States (NMS), and major players in world agricultural markets. The model is a partial-equilibrium model of world agricultural markets including important producer and consumer countries in world livestock and products, dairy, grains, oilseeds and products, cotton and sugar markets. Each country's commodity sectors are modeled with structural equations which incorporate all important policy parameters. With prices in most commodities in the NMS historically below EU-15 prices accession leads to substantial price increases for many commodities in the NMS. Higher prices stimulate production and dampen consumption in the NMS, and trade between the new members and the EU-15 increases. Prices in the EU-15 decrease moderately. The impact of the two reforms on world markets is negligible. The CAP reforms have their greatest impact in the EU-15 markets for meats, rice, rapeseed, and dairy products. CAP reforms without enlargement generate a small increase in world and EU commodity prices.CAP, trade reform, policy reform, enlargement, new member states, European Union, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing, F1, Q17, Q18,

Exome-based Variant Detection in Core Promoters.

Core promoter controls the initiation of transcription. Core promoter sequence change can disrupt transcriptional regulation, lead to impairment of gene expression and ultimately diseases. Therefore, comprehensive characterization of core promoters is essential to understand normal and abnormal gene expression in biomedical studies. Here we report the development of EVDC (Exome-based Variant Detection in Core promoters) method for genome-scale analysis of core-promoter sequence variation. This method is based on the fact that exome sequences contain the sequences not only from coding exons but also from non-coding region including core promoters generated by random fragmentation in exome sequencing process. Using exome data from three cell types of CD4+ T cells, CD19+ B cells and neutrophils of a single individual, we characterized the features of core promoter-mapped exome sequences, and analysed core-promoter variation in this individual genome. We also compared the core promoters between YRI (Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria) and the CEU (Utah residents of European decedent) populations using the exome data generated by the 1000 Genome project, and observed much higher variation in YRI population than in CEU population. Our study demonstrates that the EVDC method provides a simple but powerful means for genome-wile de novo characterization of core promoter sequence variation

Long-Term and Global Tradeoffs between Bio-Energy, Feed, and Food

Projections of U.S. ethanol production and its impacts on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production and prices, trade, and retail food costs are presented under the assumption that current tax credits and trade policies are maintained. The projections were made using a multi-product, multi-country deterministic partial equilibrium model. The impacts of higher oil prices, a drought combined with an ethanol mandate, and removal of land from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) relative to baseline projections are also presented. The results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices will increase enough to cover the feed cost increases. Retail meat, egg, and dairy prices will also increase. If oil prices are permanently $10-per-barrel higher than assumed in the baseline projections, U.S. ethanol will expand significantly. The magnitude of the expansion will depend on the future makeup of the U.S. automobile fleet. If sufficient demand for E-85 from flex-fuel vehicles is available, corn-based ethanol production is projected to increase to over 30 billion gallons per year with the higher oil prices. The direct effect of higher feed costs is that U.S. food prices would increase by a minimum of 1.1% over baseline levels. Results of a model of a 1988-type drought combined with a large mandate for continued ethanol production show sharply higher crop prices, a drop in livestock production, and higher food prices. Corn exports would drop significantly, and feed costs would rise. Wheat feed use would rise sharply. Taking additional land out of the CRP would lower crop prices in the short run. But because long-run corn prices are determined by ethanol prices and not by corn acreage, the long-run impacts on commodity prices and food prices of a smaller CRP are modest. Cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass and biodiesel from soybeans do not become economically viable in the Corn Belt under any of the scenarios. This is so because high energy costs that increase the prices of biodiesel and switchgrass ethanol also increase the price of corn-based ethanol. So long as producers can choose between soybeans for biodiesel, switchgrass for ethanol, and corn for ethanol, they will choose to grow corn. Cellulosic ethanol from corn stover does not enter into any scenario because of the high cost of collecting and transporting corn stover over the large distances required to supply a commercial-sized ethanol facility.biofuels, corn acreage, crop prices, ethanol production, food prices, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

U.S. Proposal for WTO Agriculture Negotiations: Its Impact on U.S. And World Agriculture

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) analyzed the latest U.S. proposal to the Doha round of WTO negotiations (see Appendix 1, U.S. Proposal for WTO Agriculture Negotiations, USTR, October 10, 2005). While the U.S. proposal provides many concrete steps to reduce farm support and trade distortions, it does not provide all necessary information for quantitative analysis of the proposal. FAPRI, through consultations with economists and staffers of the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, Office of the United States Trade Representative, and U.S. Department of Agriculture, elaborated a complementary set of policy assumptions to carry the quantitative analysis. The analysis is conducted in deviation from the baseline of the FAPRI 2005 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook. New policies put in place since the 2005 baseline was established have been accommodated to separate the impact of the policy scenario from the full set of policy assumptions.

The genome of polymorphonuclear neutrophils maintains normal coding sequences

Genetic studies often use genomic DNA from whole blood cells, of which the majority are the polymorphonuclear myeloid cells. Those cells undergo dramatic change of nuclear morphology following cellular differentiation. It remains elusive if the nuclear morphological change accompanies sequence alternations from the intact genome. If such event exists, it will cause a serious problem in using such type of genomic DNA for genetic study as the sequences will not represent the intact genome in the host individuals. Using exome sequencing, we compared the coding regions between neutrophil, which is the major type of polymorphonuclear cells, and CD4+ T cell, which has an intact genome, from the same individual. The results show that exon sequences between the two cell types are essentially the same. The minor differences represented by the missed exons and base changes between the two cell types were validated to be mainly caused by experimental errors. Our study concludes that genomic DNA from whole blood cells can be safely used for genetic studies

Prevalence and spectrum of BRCA germline variants in mainland Chinese familial breast and ovarian cancer patients.

Germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 are the most penetrating genetic predispositions for breast and ovarian cancer, and their presence is largely ethnic-specific. Comprehensive information about the prevalence and spectrum of BRCA mutations has been collected in European and North American populations. However, similar information is lacking in other populations, including the mainland Chinese population despite its large size of 1.4 billion accounting for one fifth of the world\u27s population. Herein, we performed an extensive literature analysis to collect BRCA variants identified from mainland Chinese familial breast and ovarian cancer patients. We observed 137 distinct BRCA1 variants in 409 of 3,844 and 80 distinct BRCA2 variants in 157 of 3,024 mainland Chinese patients, with an estimated prevalence of 10.6% for BRCA1 and 5.2% for BRCA2. Of these variants, only 40.3% in BRCA1 and 42.5% in BRCA2 are listed in current Breast Cancer Information Core database. We observed higher frequent variation in BRCA1 exons 11A, 11C, 11D, and 24 and BRCA2 exon 10 in Chinese patients than in the patients of other populations. The most common pathogenic variant in BRCA1 wasc.981_982delAT in exon 11A, and in BRCA2 c.3195_3198delTAAT in exon 11B and c.5576_5579delTTAA in exon 11E; the most common novel variant in BRCA1 was c.919A\u3eG in exon 10A, and in BRCA2 c.7142delC in exon 14. None of the variants overlap with the founder mutations in other populations. Our analysis indicates that the prevalence of BRCA variation in mainland Chinese familial breast and ovarian cancer patients is at a level similar to but the spectrum is substantially different from the ones of other populations