Mr. Wicksell and the Global Economy: What Drives Real Interest Rates?

We use a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to extract world, regional and country factors of real interest rate series for 22 OECD economies. We find that the world factor plays a privileged role in explaining the variance of real rates for most countries in the sample, and accounts for the steady decrease in interest rates in the last decades. Moreover, the relative contribution of the world factor is rising over time. We also find relevant differences between the group of countries that follow fixed exchange rate strategies and those with flexible regimes

Recommendations for assessing Patient-Reported Outcomes and Health-Related quality of life in clinical trials on allergy: a GA(2)LEN taskforce position paper

The aim of this Global Allergy and Asthma European Network (GA(2)LEN) consensus report is to provide recommendations for patient-reported outcomes (PROs) evaluation in clinical trials for allergic diseases, which constitute a global health problem in terms of physical, psychological economic and social impact. During the last 40 years, PROs have gained large consideration and use in the scientific community, to gain a better understanding of patients' subjective assessment with respect to elements concerning their health condition. They include all health-related reports coming from the patient, without involvement or interpretation by physician or others. PROs assessment should be performed by validated tools (disease-specific tools when available or generic ones) selected taking into account the aim of the study, the expected intervention effects and the determinant and confounding factors or patient-related factors which could influence PROs. Moreover, each tool should be used exclusively in the patient population following the authors' indications without modification and performing a cross-cultural validation if the tool must be used in a language that differs from the original. The result analysis also suggests that the relevance of PROs results in any interventional study should include a pre-post assessment providing information concerning statistical differences within or among groups, rates of response for the PROs and a minimal important difference for the population. The report underlines the importance of further investigation on some topics, such as the quality assessment of existing PROs tools, the definition of inclusion and exclusion criteria and a more extensive evaluation of the correlation between PROs, besides health-related quality of life, and clinical data

1D model of precursors to frictional stick-slip motion allowing for robust comparison with experiments

We study the dynamic behaviour of 1D spring-block models of friction when the external loading is applied from a side, and not on all blocks like in the classical Burridge-Knopoff-like models. Such a change in the loading yields specific difficulties, both from numerical and physical viewpoints. To address some of these difficulties and clarify the precise role of a series of model parameters, we start with the minimalistic model by Maegawa et al. (Tribol. Lett. 38, 313, 2010) which was proposed to reproduce their experiments about precursors to frictional sliding in the stick-slip regime. By successively adding (i) an internal viscosity, (ii) an interfacial stiffness and (iii) an initial tangential force distribution at the interface, we manage to (i) avoid the model's unphysical stress fluctuations, (ii) avoid its unphysical dependence on the spatial resolution and (iii) improve its agreement with the experimental results, respectively. Based on the behaviour of this improved 1D model, we develop an analytical prediction for the length of precursors as a function of the applied tangential load. We also discuss the relationship between the microscopic and macroscopic friction coefficients in the model.Comment: 13 pages, 14 figures, accepted in Tribology Letter

Dynamic Imaging of the Effector Immune Response to Listeria Infection In Vivo

Host defense against the intracellular pathogen Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) requires innate and adaptive immunity. Here, we directly imaged immune cell dynamics at Lm foci established by dendritic cells in the subcapsular red pulp (scDC) using intravital microscopy. Blood borne Lm rapidly associated with scDC. Myelomonocytic cells (MMC) swarmed around non-motile scDC forming foci from which blood flow was excluded. The depletion of scDC after foci were established resulted in a 10-fold reduction in viable Lm, while graded depletion of MMC resulted in 30–1000 fold increase in viable Lm in foci with enhanced blood flow. Effector CD8+ [CD8 superscript +] T cells at sites of infection displayed a two-tiered reduction in motility with antigen independent and antigen dependent components, including stable interactions with infected and non-infected scDC. Thus, swarming MMC contribute to control of Lm prior to development of T cell immunity by direct killing and sequestration from blood flow, while scDC appear to promote Lm survival while preferentially interacting with CD8+ [CD8 superscript +] T cells in effector sites.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant P01AI-071195

The Future of Agent-Based Modeling

In this paper, I elaborate on the role of agent-based (AB) modeling for macroeconomic research. My main tenet is that the full potential of the AB approach has not been realized yet. This potential lies in the modular nature of the models, which is bought by abandoning the straitjacket of rational expectations and embracing an evolutionary perspective. I envisage the foundation of a Modular Macroeconomic Science, where new models with heterogeneous interacting agents, endowed with partial information and limited computational ability, can be created by recombining and extending existing models in a unified computational framework

On the Determinants of Currency Crises: The Role of Model Uncertainty

We tackle explicitly the issue of model uncertainty in the framework of binary variable models of currency crises. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, we assess the robustness of the explanatory variables proposed in the recent literature for both static and dynamic models. Our results indicate that the variables belonging to the set of macroeconomic fundamentals proposed by the literature are very fragile determinants of the occurrence of currency crises. The results improve if the crisis index identifies a crisis period (defined as the period up to a year before a crisis) instead of a crisis occurrence. In this setting, the extent of real exchange rate misalignment and financial market indicators appear as robust determinants of crisis periods

Septicaemia models using Streptococcus pneumoniae and Listeria monocytogenes: understanding the role of complement properdin

Streptococcus pneumoniae and Listeria monocytogenes, pathogens which can cause severe infectious disease in human, were used to infect properdin-deficient and wildtype mice. The aim was to deduce a role for properdin, positive regulator of the alternative pathway of complement activation, by comparing and contrasting the immune response of the two genotypes in vivo. We show that properdin-deficient and wildtype mice mounted antipneumococcal serotype-specific IgM antibodies, which were protective. Properdin-deficient mice, however, had increased survival in the model of streptococcal pneumonia and sepsis. Low activity of the classical pathway of complement and modulation of FcγR2b expression appear to be pathogenically involved. In listeriosis, however, properdin-deficient mice had reduced survival and a dendritic cell population that was impaired in maturation and activity. In vitro analyses of splenocytes and bone marrow-derived myeloid cells support the view that the opposing outcomes of properdin-deficient and wildtype mice in these two infection models is likely to be due to a skewing of macrophage activity to an M2 phenotype in the properdin-deficient mice. The phenotypes observed thus appear to reflect the extent to which M2- or M1-polarised macrophages are involved in the immune responses to S. pneumoniae and L. monocytogenes. We conclude that properdin controls the strength of immune responses by affecting humoral as well as cellular phenotypes during acute bacterial infection and ensuing inflammation