Seasonal forecast of French Mediterranean heavy precipitating events linked to weather regimes

Seasonal predictability of local precipitation is rather weak in the mid-latitudes. This is the case when assessing the skill of the seasonal forecast of Heavy Precipitating Event (HPE) extreme occurrence over the French Mediterranean coast during the fall season. Tropics to extra-tropics teleconnection patterns do appear when averaging analyzed fields over the years characterised by a frequency of HPE occurrence in the upper 17% of the distribution. A methodology taking weather regime occurrence into account as an intermediate step to forecast HPE extreme occurrence is presented. For the period 1960 to 2001 and four different sets of seasonal forecast, the Economical Value is doubled, compared to the score obtained with the simulated local precipitation data, when using a linear model (Linear Discriminant Analysis in this case) taking simulated 200 hPa velocity potential–stream function regime occurrences as predictors. Interestingly, larger scores are shown for this couple of fields over a large-scale domain including the tropics than for the 500 hPa geopotential height over an Euro–Atlantic domain, despite a tighter link of the latter field to the local precipitation

Predictability of soil moisture and river flows over France for the spring season

Sources of spring predictability of the hydrological system over France were studied on a seasonal time scale over the 1960–2005 period. Two random sampling experiments were set up in order to test the relative importance of the land surface initial state and the atmospheric forcing. The experiments were based on the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological suite which computed soil moisture and river flow forecasts over a 8-km grid and more than 880 river-gauging stations. Results showed that the predictability of hydrological variables primarily depended on the seasonal atmospheric forcing (mostly temperature and total precipitation) over most plains, whereas it mainly depended on snow cover over high mountains. However, the Seine catchment area was an exception as the skill mainly came from the initial state of its large and complex aquifers. Seasonal meteorological hindcasts with the Météo-France ARPEGE climate model were then used to force the ISBA-MODCOU hydrological model and obtain seasonal hydrological forecasts from 1960 to 2005 for the entire March-April-May period. Scores from this seasonal hydrological forecasting suite could thus be compared with the random atmospheric experiment. Soil moisture and river flow skill scores clearly showed the added value in seasonal meteorological forecasts in the north of France, contrary to the Mediterranean area where values worsened

Improved fibrosis staging by elastometry and blood test in chronic hepatitis C.

AIMS: Our main objective was to improve non-invasive fibrosis staging accuracy by resolving the limits of previous methods via new test combinations. Our secondary objectives were to improve staging precision, by developing a detailed fibrosis classification, and reliability (personalized accuracy) determination. METHODS: All patients (729) included in the derivation population had chronic hepatitis C, liver biopsy, 6 blood tests and Fibroscan. Validation populations included 1584 patients. RESULTS: The most accurate combination was provided by using most markers of FibroMeter and Fibroscan results targeted for significant fibrosis, i.e. \u27E-FibroMeter\u27. Its classification accuracy (91.7%) and precision (assessed by F difference with Metavir: 0.62 ± 0.57) were better than those of FibroMeter (84.1%, P < 0.001; 0.72 ± 0.57, P < 0.001), Fibroscan (88.2%, P = 0.011; 0.68 ± 0.57, P = 0.020), and a previous CSF-SF classification of FibroMeter + Fibroscan (86.7%, P < 0.001; 0.65 ± 0.57, P = 0.044). The accuracy for fibrosis absence (F0) was increased, e.g. from 16.0% with Fibroscan to 75.0% with E-FibroMeter (P < 0.001). Cirrhosis sensitivity was improved, e.g. E-FibroMeter: 92.7% vs. Fibroscan: 83.3%, P = 0.004. The combination improved reliability by deleting unreliable results (accuracy <50%) observed with a single test (1.2% of patients) and increasing optimal reliability (accuracy ≥85%) from 80.4% of patients with Fibroscan (accuracy: 90.9%) to 94.2% of patients with E-FibroMeter (accuracy: 92.9%), P < 0.001. The patient rate with 100% predictive values for cirrhosis by the best combination was twice (36.2%) that of the best single test (FibroMeter: 16.2%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The new test combination increased: accuracy, globally and especially in patients without fibrosis, staging precision, cirrhosis prediction, and even reliability, thus offering improved fibrosis staging

A Single Test Combining Blood Markers and Elastography is More Accurate Than Other Fibrosis Tests in the Main Causes of Chronic Liver Diseases

BACKGROUND AND GOAL: International guidelines suggest combining a blood test and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) to stage liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Therefore, we compared the accuracies of these tests between the main etiologies of chronic liver diseases. STUDY: Overall, 1968 patients were included in 5 etiologies: CHC: 698, chronic hepatitis B: 152, human immunodeficiency virus/CHC: 628, NAFLD: 225, and alcoholic liver disease (ALD): 265. Sixteen tests [13 blood tests, LSM (Fibroscan), 2 combined: FibroMeters] were evaluated. References were Metavir staging and CHC etiology. Accuracy was evaluated mainly with the Obuchowski index (OI) and accessorily with area under the receiver operating characteristics (F≥2, F≥3, cirrhosis). RESULTS: OIs in CHC were: FibroMeters: 0.812, FibroMeters: 0.785 to 0.797, Fibrotest: 0.762, CirrhoMeters: 0.756 to 0.771, LSM: 0.754, Hepascore: 0.752, FibroMeter: 0.750, aspartate aminotransferase platelet ratio index: 0.742, Fib-4: 0.741. In other etiologies, most tests had nonsignificant changes in OIs. In NAFLD, CHC-specific tests were more accurate than NAFLD-specific tests. The combined FibroMeters had significantly higher accuracy than their 2 constitutive tests (FibroMeters and LSM) in at least 1 diagnostic target in all etiologies, except in ALD where LSM had the highest OI, and in 3 diagnostic targets (OIs and 2 area under the receiver operating characteristics) in CHC and NAFLD. CONCLUSIONS: Some tests developed in CHC outperformed other tests in their specific etiologies. Tests combining blood markers and LSM outperformed single tests, validating recent guidelines and extending them to main etiologies. Noninvasive fibrosis evaluation can thus be simplified in the main etiologies by using a unique test: either LSM alone, especially in ALD, or preferably combined to blood markers

A stepwise algorithm using an at-a-glance first-line test for the non-invasive diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis and cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic liver diseases (CLD) are common, and are therefore mainly managed by non-hepatologists. These physicians lack access to the best non-invasive tests of liver fibrosis, and consequently cannot accurately determine the disease severity. Referral to a hepatologist is then needed. We aimed to implement an algorithm, comprising a new first-line test usable by all physicians, for the detection of advanced liver fibrosis in all CLD patients. METHODS: Diagnostic study: 3754 CLD patients with liver biopsy were 2:1 randomized into derivation and validation sets. Prognostic study: longitudinal follow-up of 1275 CLD patients with baseline fibrosis tests. RESULTS: Diagnostic study: the easy liver fibrosis test (eLIFT), an "at-a-glance" sum of points attributed to age, gender, gamma-glutamyl transferase, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), platelets and prothrombin time, was developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis. In the validation set, eLIFT and fibrosis-4 (FIB4) had the same sensitivity (78.0% vs. 76.6%, p=0.470) but eLIFT gave fewer false positive results, especially in patients ≥60years old (53.8% vs. 82.0%, p<0.001), and was thus more suitable as screening test. FibroMeter with vibration controlled transient elastography (VCTE) was the most accurate among the eight fibrosis tests evaluated. The sensitivity of the eLIFT-FM algorithm (first-line eLIFT, second-line FibroMeter) was 76.1% for advanced fibrosis and 92.1% for cirrhosis. Prognostic study: patients diagnosed as having "no/mild fibrosis" by the algorithm had excellent liver-related prognosis with thus no need for referral to a hepatologist. CONCLUSION: The eLIFT-FM algorithm extends the detection of advanced liver fibrosis to all CLD patients and reduces unnecessary referrals of patients without significant CLD to hepatologists. LAY SUMMARY: Blood fibrosis tests and transient elastography accurately diagnose advanced liver fibrosis in the large population of patients having chronic liver disease, but these non-invasive tests are only currently available in specialized centers. We have developed an algorithm including the easy liver fibrosis test (eLIFT), a new simple and widely available blood test. It is used as a first-line procedure that selects at-risk patients who need further evaluation with the FibroMeter, an accurate fibrosis test combining blood markers and transient elastography result. This new algorithm, called the eLIFT-FM, accurately identifies the patients with advanced chronic liver disease who need referral to a specialist, and those with no or mild liver lesions who can remain under the care of their usual physician. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: No registration (analysis of pooled data from previously published diagnostic studies)

Recent Results from the SAFIR Project

The "Seyfert and star formation Activity in the Far-Infrared" (SAFIR) project is aimed at studying the physical nature of the nuclear IR emission and star formation properties of a small sample of nearby Seyfert galaxies observed with the PACS and SPIRE instruments on board the Herschel space observatory. In this paper, we review the achieved results, that reveal the importance of the far-IR range to improve the quality and reliability of the estimates of basic AGN torus parameters, and describe some preliminary outcome from the on-going work on the dust properties of resolved AGN host galaxies

Safety and Reactogenicity of Canarypox ALVAC-HIV (vCP1521) and HIV-1 gp120 AIDSVAX B/E Vaccination in an Efficacy Trial in Thailand

A prime-boost vaccination regimen with ALVAC-HIV (vCP1521) administered intramuscularly at 0, 4, 12, and 24 weeks and gp120 AIDSVAX B/E at 12 and 24 weeks demonstrated modest efficacy of 31.2% for prevention of HIV acquisition in HIV-uninfected adults participating in a community-based efficacy trial in Thailand.Reactogenicity was recorded for 3 days following vaccination. Adverse events were monitored every 6 months for 3.5 years, during which pregnancy outcomes were recorded. Of the 16,402 volunteers, 69% of the participants reported an adverse event any time after the first dose. Only 32.9% experienced an AE within 30 days following any vaccination. Overall adverse event rates and attribution of relatedness did not differ between groups. The frequency of serious adverse events was similar in vaccine (14.3%) and placebo (14.9%) recipients (p = 0.33). None of the 160 deaths (85 in vaccine and 75 in placebo recipients, p = 0.43) was assessed as related to vaccine. The most common cause of death was trauma or traffic accident. Approximately 30% of female participants reported a pregnancy during the study. Abnormal pregnancy outcomes were experienced in 17.1% of vaccine and 14.6% (p = 0.13) of placebo recipients. When the conception occurred within 3 months (estimated) of a vaccination, the majority of these abnormal outcomes were spontaneous or elective abortions among 22.2% and 15.3% of vaccine and placebo pregnant recipients, respectively (p = 0.08). Local reactions occurred in 88.0% of vaccine and 61.0% of placebo recipients (p<0.001) and were more frequent after ALVAC-HIV than AIDSVAX B/E vaccination. Systemic reactions were more frequent in vaccine than placebo recipients (77.2% vs. 59.8%, p<0.001). Local and systemic reactions were mostly mild to moderate, resolving within 3 days.The ALVAC-HIV and AIDSVAX B/E vaccine regimen was found to be safe, well tolerated and suitable for potential large-scale use in Thailand.ClinicalTrials.govNCT00223080

The French national prospective cohort of patients co-infected with HIV and HCV (ANRS CO13 HEPAVIH): Early findings, 2006-2010

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In France, it is estimated that 24% of HIV-infected patients are also infected with HCV. Longitudinal studies addressing clinical and public health questions related to HIV-HCV co-infection (HIV-HCV clinical progression and its determinants including genetic dimension, patients' experience with these two diseases and their treatments) are limited. The ANRS CO 13 HEPAVIH cohort was set up to explore these critical questions.</p> <p>To describe the cohort aims and organization, monitoring and data collection procedures, baseline characteristics, as well as follow-up findings to date.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Inclusion criteria in the cohort were: age > 18 years, HIV-1 infection, chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection or sustained response to HCV treatment. A standardized medical questionnaire collecting socio-demographic, clinical, biological, therapeutic, histological, ultrasound and endoscopic data is administered at enrolment, then every six months for cirrhotic patients or yearly for non-cirrhotic patients. Also, a self-administered questionnaire documenting socio-behavioral data and adherence to HIV and/or HCV treatments is administered at enrolment and yearly thereafter.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 1,175 patients were included from January 2006 to December 2008. Their median age at enrolment was 45 years and 70.2% were male. The median CD4 cell count was 442 (IQR: 304-633) cells/μl and HIV RNA plasma viral load was undetectable in 68.8%. Most participants (71.6%) were on HAART. Among the 1,048 HIV-HCV chronically co-infected patients, HCV genotype 1 was predominant (56%) and cirrhosis was present in 25%. As of January, 2010, after a median follow-up of 16.7 months (IQR: 11.3-25.3), 13 new cases of decompensated cirrhosis, nine hepatocellular carcinomas and 20 HCV-related deaths were reported, resulting in a cumulative HCV-related severe event rate of 1.9/100 person-years (95% CI: 1.3-2.5). The rate of HCV-related severe events was higher in cirrhotic patients and those with a low CD4 cells count, but did not differ according to sex, age, alcohol consumption, CDC clinical stage or HCV status.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The ANRS CO 13 HEPAVIH is a nation-wide cohort using a large network of HIV treatment, infectious diseases and internal medicine clinics in France, and thus is highly representative of the French population living with these two viruses and in care.</p

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate