Uncovered Interest Parity: Cross-sectional Evidence

This paper proposes a different empirical approach to estimate the UIP by analyzing a large number of cross-country bilateral exchange rates using cross-section analysis. Different from conventional time-series UIP, cross-sectional UIP is examined with single equation estimation and panel regression model estimation. The exchange rates analyzed here include a broad spectrum of countries: developed, developing, low inflation and high inflation countries. Based on the empirical evidence, there does not appear to be a well-publicized UIP puzzle for cross-sectional UIP, and the slope estimates remain largely between zero and one throughout the sample periods, with a few exceptions. Evidence of UIP is more clear for low inflation countries than for high inflation countries. As interest rate maturity becomes longer, UIP relationship becomes weaker.Uncovered interest parity, Cross-sectional UIP

Economic fundamentals and exchange rates under different exchange rate regimes: Korean experience

Korea provides a unique opportunity to study the different behaviors or roles, if any, of limited flexibility and free floating exchange rate regimes. Korea shifted from a limited flexibility to a free floating exchange rate regime after the 1997 economic crisis. It is well documented that the exchange rate is very difficult to predict using any theoretical models for exchange rate determination. Based on a simple monetary model, we find that the impact of economic fundamentals on the exchange rate is very similar under both exchange rate regimes according to OLS estimates, but the difference is statistically significant with GARCH(1,1) results. We also find that the size of the exchange rate shock is much bigger under the free floating regime than under the limited flexibility regime. VAR results show that the exchange rate shock impact on inflation is not statistically different under the two regimes. These findings are generally in line with Baxter and Stockman (1989) for regime neutrality.Korean exchange rate regimes, economic fundamentals, exchange rate pass-through

Optimal Vehicle Motion Control to Mitigate Secondary Crashes after an Initial Impact.

Statistical data of road traffic fatalities show that fatalities in multiple-event crashes are higher than in single-event crashes. Most vehicle safety systems were developed to mitigate first crash events. Few active safety systems can deal with subsequent crash events. After a first crash event, drivers may not react in a timely or correct manner, which can have devastating consequences. Production active safety systems such as Electronic Stability Control (ESC) may not react to a first crash event properly unless such events are within their design specifications. The goal of this thesis is to propose control strategies that bring the vehicle state back to regions where drivers and ESC can easily take over the control, so that the severity of possible subsequent (secondary) crashes can be reduced. Because the most contributing causes of fatal secondary crashes are large lateral deviations and heading angle changes, the proposed algorithms consider both lateral displacement and heading of the vehicle. To characterize the vehicle motion after a crash event, a collision force estimation method and a vehicle motion prediction scheme are proposed. The model-based algorithm uses sensing information from the early stage of a collision process, so that the collision force can be predicted and the desired vehicle state can be determined promptly. The final heading angles are determined off-line and results are stored in a look-up table for faster implementation. Linear Time Varying Model Predictive Control (LTV-MPC) method is used to obtain the control signals, with the key tire nonlinearities captured through linearization. This algorithm considers tire force constraints based on the combined-slip tire model. The computed high-level control signals are realized through a control allocation problem which maps vehicle motion commands to tire braking forces. For real-time implementation, a rule-based control strategy is obtained. Several rules were constructed, and results under the rule-based control are similar to those under the optimal control (LTV-MPC) method while avoiding heavy on-board computations. Lastly, this thesis proposes a preemptive steering control concept. By assessing the expected strength of an imminent collision force from another vehicle, a preemptive steering control is applied to mitigate the imminent impact.PhDMechanical EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111343/1/bjukim_1.pd

Predictive factors for breast cancer in patients diagnosed atypical ductal hyperplasia at core needle biopsy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Percutaneous core needle biopsy (CNB) is considered to be the standard technique for histological diagnosis of breast lesions. But, it is less reliable for diagnosing atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH). The purpose of the present study was to predict, based on clinical and radiological findings, which cases of ADH diagnosed by CNB would be more likely to be associated with a more advanced lesion on subsequent surgical excision.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between February 2002 and December 2007, consecutive ultrasound-guided CNBs were performed on suspicious breast lesions at Seoul St. Mary's Hospital. A total of 69 CNBs led to a diagnosis of ADH, and 45 patients underwent follow-up surgical excision. We reviewed the medical records and analyses retrospectively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty-nine patients were diagnosed with ADH at CNB. Of these patients, 45 underwent surgical excision and 10 (22.2%) were subsequently diagnosed with a malignancy (ductal carcinoma <it>in situ</it>, n = 8; invasive cancer, n = 2). Univariate analysis revealed age (≥ 50-years) at the time of core needle biopsy (p = 0.006), size (> 10 mm) on imaging (p = 0.033), and combined mass with microcalcification on sonography (p = 0.029) to be associated with underestimation. When those three factors were included in multivariate analysis, only age (p = 0.035, HR 6.201, 95% CI 1.135-33.891) was an independent predictor of malignancy.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Age (≥ 50) at the time of biopsy is an independent predictive factor for breast cancer at surgical excision in patients with diagnosed ADH at CNB. For patients diagnosed with ADH at CNB, only complete surgical excision is the suitable treatment option, because we could not find any combination of factors that can safely predict the absence of DCIS or invasive cancer in a case of ADH.</p

Scalar Non-Luminous Matter in Galaxies

As a candidate for dark matter in galaxies, we study an SU(3) triplet of complex scalar fields which are non-minimally coupled to gravity. In the spherically symmetric static spacetime where the flat rotational velocity curves of stars in galaxies can be explained, we find simple solutions of scalar fields with SU(3) global symmetry broken to U(1) X U(1), in an exponential scalar potential, which will be useful in a quintessence model of the late-time acceleration of the Universe.Comment: 6 pages, no figure, LaTex. Submitted to IJMP

Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth

We propose an econometric procedure for obtaining de facto exchange rate regime classifications which we apply to study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. Our classification method models the de jure regimes as outcomes of a multinomial logit choice problem conditional on the volatility of a country's effective exchange rate, a bilateral exchange rate and international reserves. An `effective' de facto exchange rate regime classification is then obtained by assigning country-year observations to the regime with the highest predictive probability obtained from the estimation problem. An econometric investigation into the relationship between exchange rate regimes and GDP growth finds that growth is higher under stable currency-value regimes. Significant asymmetric effects on country growth from not doing what is said are found for nonindustrialized countries. Countries that exhibit `fear of floating' experience significantly higher growth.

The effects of floating islands planted with various hydrophytes for water quality improvement

This study was carried out for measurement of total nitrogen and total phosphorus removal effiency by each hydrophyte (Scirpus tabernaemontani, Iris pseudoacorus, Phragmites australis, Tyha angustifolia), control and All (Scirpus tabernaemontani, Iris pseudoacorus, Phragmites australis, Typha anfustifolia planted) 22 ℓ batch reactors. The highest total nitrogen removal efficiency was using 94.8% of All. The highest total phosphorus removal efficiency was 85.1% of Typha angustifolia. The effects of floating islands ont the changes in phytoplankton community structure were investigated in a small artificial pond. The floating islands planted with various emergent macrophytes coverd 35% of total water surface area of the pond. Total 17 genera and 25 species of phytoplankton were found in the pond, of which Dinophyceae was 1 genera and 1species, Cyanophyceae 1 genera and 1 species, Bacillariophycear 6 genera and 8 species, and Chlorophyceae 9 genera and 15 species. Dominant phytoplnaktons under floating islands were changes from Aphanizomenon sp. as a Cyanophycear for 56 days after the construction of floating islands on July 24, 2001. The changes of dominant phytoplanktons of the control without floating islands were similar to those under floating islands in July and August, but Aphanizomenon sp. was rapidly increased in the control sites in September. About 99% of the cell number of Aphanizomenon sp. was disappeared for a month after construction of floating islands. Our results showed that the floating islands could be a useful eco-technique for the control of water bloom by Cyanophyceae and Chlorophyceae in a pond ecosystem.Article信州大学山地水環境教育研究センター研究報告 2: 121-126(2004)departmental bulletin pape

Quantitative Kinetic Energy Estimated from Disdrometer Signal

The kinetic energy of the rain drops was predicted in a relation between the rain rate and rain quantity, derived directly from the rain drop size distribution (DSD), which had been measured by a disdrometer located in the eastern state of Alagoas-Brazil. The equation in the form of exponential form suppressed the effects of large drops at low rainfall intensity observed at the beginning and end of the rainfall. The kinetic energy of the raindrop was underestimated in almost rain intensity ranges and was considered acceptable by the performance indicators such as coefficient of determination, average absolute error, percent relative error, mean absolute error, root mean square error, Willmott's concordance index and confidence index