Quantitative risk assessment of medium-sized floating regasification units using system hierarchical modelling

Currently there are no sufficiently detailed and specific regulations and guidelines applicable to Floating Regasification Units. In view of the fact that these units are likely to become more popular in the near future, their safety needs to be examined urgently. During the design of the world's first medium-sized floating regasification unit a qualitative risk assessment was carried out. Although the results are useful, they cannot be used for developing rules and regulations directly. For such purposes some detailed quantitative studies are essential. This paper addresses this gap and introduces a hierarchical system modelling method to overcome the problem of the lack of direct statistical accident data of novel systems. The method was implemented in IQRA (integrated quantitative risk assessment), a piece of software developed in-house for quantitative risk assessment. The safety of the floating regasification unit mentioned above was assessed using this software and the results were compared against the results obtained from conventional qualitative and the quantitative risk assessment. It was found that the qualitative risk assessment had a tendency to overestimate the frequency of the accidents but to underestimate their consequence, while the quantitative risk assessment based on the result of the qualitative assessment inherently underestimated both the frequency and the consequence of hazards. The hierarchical modelling was found to be an excellent method of dealing with complex systems with short operational history

Determination of safety exclusion zone for LNG bunkering at fuel-supplying point

With strong environmental and economic driving forces for using LNG as a marine fuel over the last decade, an increasing number of local/international ports, mainly in Europe, have initiated LNG fuel providing service to LNG-fuelled ships. This trend is now spreading throughout the world. The LNG bunkering methods currently in use are truck-to-ship (TTS), ship-to-ship (STS) and pipeline-to-ship (PTS). This paper describes a study conducted to identify potential risks associated with LNG bunkering with particular emphasis on the fuel-supplying side. A series of parametric analyses were also carried out to identify the sensitivity to some parameters with the aid of a purpose-built computer program, Integrated Quantitative Risk Assessment (IQRA). Through the parametric analyses, general relationships between the risk and various parameters could be established from which the importance of the selected parameters might be evaluated. This paper also proposes a new approach of establishing realistic safety exclusion zones in LNG bunkering process. Research findings demonstrate that the implied hypothesis that the current practice of the probabilistic risk assessment focused on the population-independent analysis only is somewhat inadequate when applied to determining the safety exclusion zones as showing that the extent of safety exclusion zones tends to be set up unpractically wide. Instead, the proposed approach designed with the combination of population-dependant and independent analyses is proven to be useful in determining the zones more realistically. It may form a basis on which more useful safety-related standards and regulations on LNG bunkering can be built

Pathogenic effect of interleukin-17A in induction of Sjogren's syndrome-like disease using adenovirus-mediated gene transfer

Introduction Sjögren's syndrome (SS) involves a chronic, progressive inflammation primarily of the salivary and lacrimal glands leading to decreased levels of saliva and tears resulting in dry mouth and dry eye diseases. Seminal findings regarding TH17 cell populations that secrete predominantly interleukin (IL)-17A have been shown to play an important role in an increasing number of autoimmune diseases, including SS. In the present study, we investigated the function of IL-17A on the development and onset of SS. Methods Adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5) vectors expressing either IL-17A or LacZ were infused via retrograde cannulation into the salivary glands of C57BL/6J mice between 6 and 8 weeks of age or between 15 and 17 weeks of age. The mice were characterized for SS phenotypes. Results Disease profiling indicated that SS-non-susceptible C57BL/6J mice whose salivary glands received the Ad5-IL17A vector developed a SS-like disease profile, including the appearance of lymphocytic foci, increased cytokine levels, changes in antinuclear antibody profiles, and temporal loss of saliva flow. Conclusions Induction of SS pathology by IL-17A in SS-non-susceptible mice strongly suggests that IL-17A is an important inflammatory cytokine in salivary gland dysfunction. Thus, localized anti-IL17 therapy may be effective in preventing glandular dysfunction.National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research (U.S.) (PHS Grants K99DE018958)National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U.S.) (R21AI081952)Sjogren's Syndrome FoundationUniversity of Florida. Center for Orphaned Autoimmune DisordersNational Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research (U.S.) (Intramural research grant)National Institutes of Health (U.S.

Analysis of different tumor volume thresholds of insignificant prostate cancer and their implications for active surveillance patient selection and monitoring

PurposeWe compared oncological outcomes according to tumor volume (TV) thresholds defining both classical and updated insignificant prostate cancer (IPC), since the TV threshold can be used as clinical parameter for active surveillance.MethodsBetween 2001 and 2012, we retrospectively analyzed 331 organ-confined prostate cancer patients who had preoperative Gleason score 6, preoperative PSA under 10 ng/mL and pathologic TV less than 1.3 mL. Among them, 81 of 331 (24.5%) had Gleason grade 4/5 disease postoperatively. Patients were stratified into two groups: (1) TV less than 0.5 mL, using the classical definition; and (2) TV between 0.5 mL and 1.3 mL, using the range of updated definition. We compared biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free survival and identified independent predictors of BCR in each group.ResultsGroup 2 had more Gleason grade 4/5 disease than group 1 (P<0.001). On multivariate analysis, Gleason grade 4/5 disease was not associated with BCR in group 1 (P=0.132). However, it was an independent predictor for BCR in group 2 (P=0.042). BCR-free survival were not significantly different according to the presence of Gleason grade 4/5 disease in group 1 (P=0.115). However, in group 2, it was significantly different according to the presence of Gleason grade 4/5 disease (P=0.041).ConclusionsAlthough the TV thresholds of the two definitions of IPC vary only slightly, this difference was enough to result in different clinical course if Gleason grade 4/5 disease was present. Therefore, the updated IPC TV threshold should be carefully applied as clinical parameter for active surveillance