Understanding decreases in land relative humidity with global warming: conceptual model and GCM simulations

Climate models simulate a strong land-ocean contrast in the response of near-surface relative humidity to global warming: relative humidity tends to increase slightly over oceans but decrease substantially over land. Surface energy balance arguments have been used to understand the response over ocean but are difficult to apply over more complex land surfaces. Here, a conceptual box model is introduced, involving moisture transport between the land and ocean boundary layers and evapotranspiration, to investigate the decreases in land relative humidity as the climate warms. The box model is applied to idealized and full-complexity (CMIP5) general circulation model simulations, and it is found to capture many of the features of the simulated changes in land relative humidity. The box model suggests there is a strong link between fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean, and the greater warming over land than ocean then implies a decrease in land relative humidity. Evapotranspiration is of secondary importance for the increase in specific humidity over land, but it matters more for the decrease in relative humidity. Further analysis shows there is a strong feedback between changes in surface-air temperature and relative humidity, and this can amplify the influence on relative humidity of factors such as stomatal conductance and soil moisture.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Climate on May 1st, 201

Radiative effects of clouds and water vapor on an axisymmetric monsoon

Funding: This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement 794063 and the UK Natural Environment Research Council’s Grant NE/R000727/1.Monsoons are summertime circulations shaping climates and societies across the tropics and subtropics. Here the radiative effects controlling an axisymmetric monsoon and its response to climate change are investigated using aquaplanet simulations. The influences of clouds, water vapor, and CO2 on the axisymmetric monsoon are decomposed using the radiation-locking technique. Seasonal variations in clouds and water vapor strongly modulate the axisymmetric monsoon, reducing net precipitation by approximately half. Warming and moistening of the axisymmetric monsoon by seasonal longwave cloud and water vapor effects are counteracted by a strong shortwave cloud effect. The shortwave cloud effect also expedites onset of the axisymmetric monsoon by approximately two weeks, whereas longwave cloud and water vapor effects delay onset. A conceptual model relates the timing of monsoon onset to the efficiency of surface cooling. In climate change simulations CO2 forcing and the water vapor feedback have similar influences on the axisymmetric monsoon, warming the surface and moistening the region. In contrast, clouds have a negligible effect on surface temperature yet dominate the monsoon circulation response. A new perspective for understanding how cloud radiative effects shape the monsoon circulation response to climate change is introduced. The radiation-locking simulations and analyses advance understanding of how radiative processes influence an axisymmetric monsoon, and establish a framework for interpreting monsoon–radiation coupling in observations, in state-of-the-art models, and in different climate states.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A moist-thermal quasigeostrophic model for monsoon depressions

Funding: AKC is supported by a St Leonard’s College Interdisciplinary Doctoral Scholarship awarded by the University of St Andrews.Monsoon depressions (MDs) are synoptic-scale storms that occur during the summer phase of the global monsoon cycle and whose dynamical mechanisms remain incompletely understood. To gain insight into the dynamics governing the large-scale structure of MDs, we formulate an idealised moist-thermal quasi-geostrophic model that includes distinct thermal and moisture fields in simple forms. A linear-stability analysis of the model, with basic states corresponding to typical monsoon conditions, shows three distinct mode classifications: thermal-Rossby modes, heavy precipitating modes, and a moist-thermal mode. In the linearised model, the presence of a background precipitation gradient strengthens thermal-Rossby modes by coupling the dynamics to latent heating. The separation of heavy precipitating modes from fast-propagating thermal-Rossby modes is further examined with numerical experiments of large-amplitude MDs. Wind-induced evaporation is found to amplify large-amplitude MDs in conditions analogous to those over the northern Bay of Bengal. An energetic analysis shows the pathways by which the MDs derive energy from the background state. A further series of experiments through a continuum of meridional temperature gradients demonstrates the sensitivity of large-scale MD dynamics to the background state and suggests a possible mechanism to explain variations in the propagation direction of MDs.Peer reviewe

The effects of transcranial direct current stimulation on within- and cross-paradigm transfer following multi-session backward recall training.

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) has been shown to enhance the efficacy and generalisation of working memory (WM) training, but there has been little systematic investigation into how coupling task-specific WM training with stimulation impacts more specifically on transfer to untrained tasks. This randomised controlled trial investigated the boundary conditions to transfer by testing firstly whether the benefits of training on backward digit recall (BDR) extend to untrained backward recall tasks and n-back tasks with different materials, and secondly which, if any, form of transfer is enhanced by tDCS. Forty-eight participants were allocated to one of three conditions: BDR training with anodal (10 min, 1 mA) or sham tDCS, or visual search training with sham tDCS, applied over the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Transfer was assessed on within- (backward recall with digits, letters, and spatial locations) and cross-paradigm (n-back with digits and letters) transfer tests following three sessions of training and stimulation. On-task training gains were found, with transfer to other backward span but not n-back tasks. There was little evidence that tDCS enhanced on-task training or transfer. These findings indicate that training enhances paradigm-specific processes within WM, but that tDCS does not enhance these gains

Cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy for sarcomatosis from uterine adenosarcoma

Uterine adenosarcoma has poor prognosis and management of this disease is controversial. We describe a case of sarcomatosis secondary to recurrent uterine adenosarcoma who underwent cytoreductive surgery (CS) and hyperthermic intraoperative peritoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC). A 52 year-old female presented with perimenopausal menometrorrhagia. She underwent laparoscopic hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oopherectomy with pathology showing uterine adenosarcoma. She developed a pelvic recurrence 2 years later. A pelvic exenteration was then performed and within 8 months, she recurred. CS/HIPEC with Cisplatin was performed. Six weeks post-operatively, the patient was found to have recurrence again. This case describes the use of CS/HIPEC as a treatment modality for uterine adenosarcoma with sarcomatosis. Despite CS and HIPEC, the patient developed an aggressive recurrence within six weeks of her surgery date. We recommend a multidisciplinary approach to this disease with the recognition that CS/HIPEC may offer little benefit as a salvage therapy based on this case

Increased uncertainty in projections of precipitation and evaporation due to wet‐get‐wetter/dry‐get‐drier biases

The research was supported by the Israel Science Foundation Grant 1022/21.A key implication of the well known wet‐get‐wetter/dry‐get‐drier (WGW) scaling is that model biases in the representation of precipitation and evaporation in the present climate lead to spurious projected changes under global warming. Here we estimate the extent of such spurious changes in projections by 60 models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Utilizing known thermodynamic constraints on evaporation, we show that the WGW scaling can be applied to precipitation and evaporation separately (specific WGW scaling), which we use to correct for spurious projected changes in precipitation and evaporation over tropical oceans. The spurious changes in precipitation can be of comparable amplitude to projected changes, but are generally small for evaporation. The spurious changes may increase the uncertainty in projections of tropical precipitation and evaporation by up to 30% and 15% respectively.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Energetic Constraints on the Width of the Intertropical Convergence Zone

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) has been the focus of considerable research in recent years, with much of this work concerned with how the latitude of maximum tropical precipitation responds to natural climate variability and to radiative forcing. The width of the ITCZ, however, has received little attention despite its importance for regional climate and for understanding the general circulation of the atmosphere. This paper investigates the ITCZ width in simulations with an idealized general circulation model over a wide range of climates. The ITCZ, defined as the tropical region where there is time-mean ascent, displays rich behavior as the climate varies, widening with warming in cool climates, narrowing in temperate climates, and maintaining a relatively constant width in hot climates. The mass and energy budgets of the Hadley circulation are used to derive expressions for the area of the ITCZ relative to the area of the neighboring descent region, and for the sensitivity of the ITCZ area to changes in climate. The ITCZ width depends primarily on four quantities: the net energy input to the tropical atmosphere, the advection of moist static energy by the Hadley circulation, the transport of moist static energy by transient eddies, and the gross moist stability. Different processes are important for the ITCZ width in different climates, with changes in gross moist stability generally having a weak influence relative to the other processes. The results are likely to be useful for analyzing the ITCZ width in complex climate models and for understanding past and future climate change in the tropics

Dynamics of ITCZ width : Ekman processes, non-Ekman processes, and links to sea surface temperature

This project has received funding from the EU’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement 794063. We also acknowledge support from the Imperial College London Research Fellowship Scheme.The dynamical processes controlling the width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) are investigated using idealized and CMIP5 simulations. ITCZ width is defined in terms of boundary layer vertical velocity. The tropical boundary layer is approximately in Ekman balance, suggesting that wind stress places a strong constraint on ITCZ width. A scaling based on Ekman balance predicts that ITCZ width is proportional to the wind stress and inversely proportional to its meridional gradient. A toy model of an Ekman boundary layer illustrates the effects of wind stress perturbations on ITCZ width. A westerly wind perturbation widens the ITCZ whereas an easterly perturbation narrows the ITCZ. Multiplying the wind stress by a constant factor does not shift the ITCZ edge, but ITCZ width is sensitive to the latitude of maximum wind stress. Scalings based on Ekman balance cannot fully capture the behavior of ITCZ width across simulations, suggesting that non-Ekman dynamical processes need to be accounted for. An alternative scaling based on the full momentum budget explains variations in ITCZ width and highlights the importance of horizontal and vertical momentum advection. Scalings are also introduced linking ITCZ width to surface temperature. An extension to Lindzen-Nigam theory predicts that ITCZ width scales with the latitude where the Laplacian of SST is zero. The supercriticality theory of Emanuel is also invoked to show that ITCZ width is dynamically linked to boundary layer moist entropy gradients. The results establish a dynamical understanding of ITCZ width that can be applied to interpret persistent ITCZ biases in climate models and the response of tropical precipitation to climate change.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in‐storm and larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes in large‐scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population