Military Spending, the Peace Dividend, and Fiscal Adjustment

This paper decomposes the sources of the peace dividend into global, regional, and country-specific factors, and analyzes their relative importance. It finds that the easing of international and regional tensions and the existence of IMF-supported adjustment programs are systematically related to lower military spending and a higher share of nonmilitary spending in total government outlays. The easing of international tensions and of regional tensions since the end of the Cold War and the existence of IMF-supported adjustment programs account for 66 percent, 26 percent, and 11 percent of the decline in military spending, respectively. Furthermore, fiscal adjustment has implied a larger cut in military spending of countries with IMF-supported programs. Copyright 2001, International Monetary Fund