The CEDAR Project

We describe the plans and objectives of the CEDAR project (Combined e-Science Data Analysis Resource for High Energy Physics) newly funded by the PPARC e-Science programme in the UK. CEDAR will combine the strengths of the well established and widely used HEPDATA database of HEP data and the innovative JetWeb data/Monte Carlo comparison facility, built on the HZTOOL package, and will exploit developing grid technology. The current status and future plans of both of these individual sub-projects within the CEDAR framework are described, showing how they will cohesively provide (a) an extensive archive of Reaction Data, (b) validation and tuning of Monte Carlo programs against these reaction data sets, and (c) a validated code repository for a wide range of HEP code such as parton distribution functions and other calculation codes used by particle physicists. Once established it is envisaged CEDAR will become an important Grid tool used by LHC experimentalists in their analyses and may well serve as a model in other branches of science where there is a need to compare data and complex simulations.Comment: 4 pages, 4 postscript figures, uses CHEP2004.cls. Presented at Computing in High-Energy Physics (CHEP'04), Interlaken, Switzerland, 27th September - 1st October 200

The 2017 Horse Mackerel Updated Assessment

FISHERIES/2016/SEP/SWG-DM/51 provided a full description of the current stock assessment model for the South African Horse Mackerel. FISHERIES/2016/SEP/SWG-DM/52 reported updated 2016 assessments for a number of model variants where the assessments were extended to allow for better fits to the low CPUE values (2014-2015). This document here provides updated 2017 assessment results for a number of model variants which follow on from the variants that were explored in 2016 and take the data from 2016 now available into account

2017 updated South Coast Rock Lobster assessment results

The 2017 assessment of the resource is updated given two further years of data now available. Recruitment is estimated to have increased over the last two seasons compared to the previous three seasons when recruitment was estimated to be poor. The spawning biomass trajectory is steady recent years. Current spawning biomass is estimated to be 32% of K

Understanding molecular abundances in star-forming regions using interpretable machine learning

Astrochemical modelling of the interstellar medium typically makes use of complex computational codes with parameters whose values can be varied. It is not always clear what the exact nature of the relationship is between these input parameters and the output molecular abundances. In this work, a feature importance analysis is conducted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), an interpretable machine learning technique, to identify the most important physical parameters as well as their relationship with each output. The outputs are the abundances of species and ratios of abundances. In order to reduce the time taken for this process, a neural network emulator is trained to model each species’ output abundance and this emulator is used to perform the interpretable machine learning. SHAP is then used to further explore the relationship between the physical features and the abundances for the various species and ratios we considered. H2O and CO’s gas phase abundances are found to strongly depend on the metallicity. NH3 has a strong temperature dependence, with there being two temperature regimes (100 K). By analysing the chemical network, we relate this to the chemical reactions in our network and find the increased temperature results in increased efficiency of destruction pathways. We investigate the HCN/HNC ratio and show that it can be used as a cosmic thermometer, agreeing with the literature. This ratio is also found to be correlated with the metallicity. The HCN/CS ratio serves as a density tracer, but also has three separate temperature-dependence regimes, which are linked to the chemistry of the two molecules

The 2006 age-structured production model assessments and projections for the South Coast rock lobster resource-routine update

The assessment conducted in 2006 has been routinely extended, taking account of a further year’s catch, CPUE and catch-at-age data. CPUE shows a continuation of the increase that commenced in 1998. The sustainable yield estimates are generally very similar to those for the 2005 assessment, although estimates of current biomass levels relative to K increase. The Reference Case (RC) scenario suggests that a TAC of about 360 MT or less would be appropriate to prevent biomass decline in the future. Other scenarios suggest either higher or lower values than this. If the catch-at-age data are down-weighted, then this 360 MT level for the TAC is increased to 390 MT. On the other hand, the scenario which assumes the 1996+ recruitment to be equal to the average of the previous 10 years is more pessimistic and suggests an appropriate TAC level of only some 300 MT or less to prevent biomass decline