Diversity and Security in UK Electricity Generation: The Influence of Low Carbon Objectives

We explore the relationship between low carbon objectives and the strategic security of electricity in the context of the UK Electricity System. We consider diversity of fuel source mix to represent one dimension of security - robustness against interruptions of any one source - and apply two different diversity indices to the range of electricity system scenarios produced by the UK government and independent researchers. Using data on wind generation we also consider whether a second dimension of security - the reliability of generation availability - is compromised by intermittency of renewable generation. Our results show that low carbon objectives are uniformly associated with greater long-term diversity in UK electricity. We discuss reasons for this result, explore sensitivities, and briefly discuss possible policy instruments associated with diversity and their limitations.Diversity, Security, Low Carbon, Wind Generation, Electricity

Achieving Efficient Strong Scaling with PETSc using Hybrid MPI/OpenMP Optimisation

The increasing number of processing elements and decreas- ing memory to core ratio in modern high-performance platforms makes efficient strong scaling a key requirement for numerical algorithms. In order to achieve efficient scalability on massively parallel systems scientific software must evolve across the entire stack to exploit the multiple levels of parallelism exposed in modern architectures. In this paper we demonstrate the use of hybrid MPI/OpenMP parallelisation to optimise parallel sparse matrix-vector multiplication in PETSc, a widely used scientific library for the scalable solution of partial differential equations. Using large matrices generated by Fluidity, an open source CFD application code which uses PETSc as its linear solver engine, we evaluate the effect of explicit communication overlap using task-based parallelism and show how to further improve performance by explicitly load balancing threads within MPI processes. We demonstrate a significant speedup over the pure-MPI mode and efficient strong scaling of sparse matrix-vector multiplication on Fujitsu PRIMEHPC FX10 and Cray XE6 systems

Synchronization and fault-masking in redundant real-time systems

A real time computer may fail because of massive component failures or not responding quickly enough to satisfy real time requirements. An increase in redundancy - a conventional means of improving reliability - can improve the former but can - in some cases - degrade the latter considerably due to the overhead associated with redundancy management, namely the time delay resulting from synchronization and voting/interactive consistency techniques. The implications of synchronization and voting/interactive consistency algorithms in N-modular clusters on reliability are considered. All these studies were carried out in the context of real time applications. As a demonstrative example, we have analyzed results from experiments conducted at the NASA Airlab on the Software Implemented Fault Tolerance (SIFT) computer. This analysis has indeed indicated that in most real time applications, it is better to employ hardware synchronization instead of software synchronization and not allow reconfiguration

Decuplet baryon magnetic moments in a QCD-based quark model beyond quenched approximation

We study the decuplet baryon magnetic moments in a QCD-based quark model beyond quenched approximation. Our approach for unquenching the theory is based on the heavy baryon perturbation theory in which the axial couplings for baryon - meson and the meson-meson-photon couplings from the chiral perturbation theory are used together with the QM moment couplings. It also involves the introduction of a form factor characterizing the structure of baryons considered as composite particles. Using the parameters obtained from fitting the octet baryon magnetic moments, we predict the decuplet baryon magnetic moments. The $\Omega^-$ magnetic moment is found to be in good agreement with experiment: $\mu_{\Omega^-}$ is predicted to be $-1.97 \mu_N$ compared to the experimental result of ($-$2.02 $\pm$ 0.05) $\mu_N$.Comment: 19 pages, 2 figure

Development and testing of porous ionizer materials, part I Summary report, Feb. 1965 - May 1966

Development and testing of porous tungsten ionizer materials for cesium contact engine

Large magnetoresistance in bcc Co/MgO/Co and FeCo/MgO/FeCo tunneling junctions

By use of first-principles electronic structure calculations, we predict that the magnetoresistance of the bcc Co(100)/MgO(100)/bcc Co(100) and FeCo(100)/MgO(100)/FeCo(100) tunneling junctions can be several times larger than the very large magnetoresistance predicted for the Fe(100)/MgO(100)/Fe(100) system. The origin of this large magnetoresistance can be understood using simple physical arguments by considering the electrons at the Fermi energy travelling perpendicular to the interfaces. For the minority spins there is no state with $\Delta_1$ symmetry whereas for the majority spins there is only a $\Delta_1$ state. The $\Delta_1$ state decays much more slowly than the other states within the MgO barrier. In the absence of scattering which breaks the conservation of momentum parallel to the interfaces, the electrons travelling perpendicular to the interfaces undergo total reflection if the moments of the electrodes are anti-parallel. These arguments apply equally well to systems with other well ordered tunnel barriers and for which the most slowly decaying complex energy band in the barrier has $\Delta_1$ symmetry. Examples include systems with (100) layers constructed from Fe, bcc Co, or bcc FeCo electrodes and Ge, GaAs, or ZnSe barriers.Comment: 8 figure files in eps forma

Estimation of Parameters in DNA Mixture Analysis

In Cowell et al. (2007), a Bayesian network for analysis of mixed traces of DNA was presented using gamma distributions for modelling peak sizes in the electropherogram. It was demonstrated that the analysis was sensitive to the choice of a variance factor and hence this should be adapted to any new trace analysed. In the present paper we discuss how the variance parameter can be estimated by maximum likelihood to achieve this. The unknown proportions of DNA from each contributor can similarly be estimated by maximum likelihood jointly with the variance parameter. Furthermore we discuss how to incorporate prior knowledge about the parameters in a Bayesian analysis. The proposed estimation methods are illustrated through a few examples of applications for calculating evidential value in casework and for mixture deconvolution