Bringing together policymakers, researchers, and practitioners to discuss job loss

Unemployment ; Displaced workers

Job loss: causes, consequences, and policy responses

From 2001 to 2003, 5.3 million workers were displaced. Beyond quantifying the numbers of jobs lost lie important questions about gains and losses from these changes and what policies may affect them. These questions will be addressed at an upcoming Chicago Fed conference.Displaced workers ; Unemployment

Assessing the impact of job loss on workers and firms

Many economists agree that the United States’ openness to competition and technological change raises our living standards, but sometimes results in job losses. This article summarizes “Job Loss: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses,” a conference which was cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Joyce Foundation.Unemployment ; Displaced workers

Reading, writing, and raisinets: are school finances contributing to children’s obesity?

The proportion of adolescents in the United States who are obese has nearly tripled over the last two decades. At the same time, schools, often citing financial pressures, have given students greater access to “junk” foods and soda pop, using proceeds from these sales to fund school programs. We examine whether schools under financial pressure are more likely to adopt potentially unhealthful food policies. Next, we examine whether students’ Body Mass Index (BMI) is higher in counties where a greater proportion of schools are predicted to allow these food policies. Because the financial pressure variables that predict school food policies are unlikely to affect BMI directly, this two step estimation strategy addresses the potential endogeneity of school food policies. ; We find that a 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of schools in a county that allow students access to junk food leads to about a one percent increase in students’ BMI, on average. However, this average effect is entirely driven by adolescents who have an overweight parent, for whom the effect of such food policies is much larger (2.2%). This suggests that those adolescents who have a genetic or family susceptibility to obesity are most affected by the school food environment. A rough calculation suggests that the increase in availability of junk foods in schools can account for about one-fifth of the increase in average BMI among adolescents over the last decade.Overweight children ; Education ; Junk food

Why are immigrants' incarceration rates so low? evidence on selective immigration, deterrence, and deportation

Much of the concern about immigration adversely affecting crime derives from the fact that immigrants tend to have characteristics in common with native born populations that are disproportionately incarcerated. This perception of a link between immigration and crime led to legislation in the 1990s increasing punishments toward criminal aliens. Despite the widespread perception of a link between immigration and crime, immigrants have much lower institutionalization (incarceration) rates than the native born. More recently arrived immigrants have the lowest comparative incarceration rates, and this difference increased from 1980 to 2000. We present a model of immigrant self-selection that suggests why, despite poor labor market outcomes, immigrants may have better incarceration outcomes than the native- born. We examine whether the improvement in immigrants’ relative incarceration rates over the last three decades is linked to increased deportation, immigrant self- selection, or deterrence. Our evidence suggests that deportation and deterrence of immigrants’ crime commission from the threat of deportation are not driving the results. Rather, immigrants appear to be self-selected to have low criminal propensities and this has increased over time.Immigrants ; Deportation

Wildfire Exposure To Critical Habitat Of Endangered And Threatened Species In California

Researchers, fire ecologists and wildlife managers are concerned about impact to endangered and threatened species and their critical habitat due to the projected increase in future wildfires. Wildfires have been studied in California for the last six decades and have been increasing at an alarming rate since the 1980’s. In this study, I use the 2018 spatial dataset for critical habitat of federally endangered and threatened species located in the state boundaries of California and compare it to a spatial dataset for wildfires that have occurred over the span of 32 years (1984 to 2016). Trends are derived from spatial data by using ArcGIS and Tableau software. A macroscale analysis was conducted to determine what species types are most sensitive to wildfire encroachment. Then I conducted a microscale to determine which specific endangered and threatened species are threatened by wildfire to determine which recovery plans should be reviewed. Analyses indicted that critical habitat for amphibian, bird and insect endangered or threatened species types are most sensitive to wildfire encroachment. Five specific species that are more impacted than others: Arroyo southwestern toad, California red-legged frog, California condor, coastal California gnatcatcher, and Quino checkerspot butterfly. Life traits were researched for these species and recovery plans were examined for wildfire mitigation strategies. Modifications were made based on these considerations and life traits. Results and future recommendations include specific recovery plan updates that should include wildfire mitigation strategies, research on wildfire impacts on these species, and ideas with regards to how this data can be used in the best interest of the species, ecosystem, and wildlife managers

Why are Immigrants' Incarceration Rates so Low? Evidence on Selective Immigration, Deterrence, and Deportation

The perception that immigration adversely affects crime rates led to legislation in the 1990s that particularly increased punishment of criminal aliens. In fact, immigrants have much lower institutionalization (incarceration) rates than the native born - on the order of one-fifth the rate of natives. More recently arrived immigrants have the lowest relative incarceration rates, and this difference increased from 1980 to 2000. We examine whether the improvement in immigrants' relative incarceration rates over the last three decades is linked to increased deportation, immigrant self-selection, or deterrence. Our evidence suggests that deportation does not drive the results. Rather, the process of migration selects individuals who either have lower criminal propensities or are more responsive to deterrent effects than the average native. Immigrants who were already in the country reduced their relative institutionalization probability over the decades; and the newly arrived immigrants in the 1980s and 1990s seem to be particularly unlikely to be involved in criminal activity, consistent with increasingly positive selection along this dimension.

Reading, Writing and Raisinets: Are School Finances Contributing to Children's Obesity?

The proportion of adolescents in the United States who are obese has nearly tripled over the last two decades. At the same time, schools, often citing financial pressures, have given students greater access to "junk" foods, using proceeds from the sales to fund school programs. We examine whether schools under financial pressure are more likely to adopt potentially unhealthful food policies. We find that a 10 percentage point increase in the probability of access to junk food leads to about a one percent increase in students' body mass index (BMI). However, this average effect is entirely driven by adolescents who have an overweight parent, for whom the effect of such food policies is much larger (2.2%). This suggests that those adolescents who have a genetic or family susceptibility to obesity are most affected by the school food environment. A rough calculation suggests that the increase in availability of junk foods in schools can account for about one-fifth of the increase in average BMI among adolescents over the last decade.

Women and the Phillips curve: do women’s and men’s labor market outcomes differentially affect real wage growth and inflation?

During the economic expansion of the 1990s, the United States enjoyed both low inflation rates and low levels of unemployment. Juhn, Murphy, and Topel (2002) point out that the low unemployment rates for men in the 1990s were accompanied by historically high rates of non-employment suggesting that the 1990s economy was not as strong as the unemployment rate might indicate. We include women in the analysis and examine whether the Phillips curve relationships between real compensation growth, changes in inflation, and labor market slackness are the same for men and women and whether measures of “non- employment” better capture underlying economic activity, as suggested by Juhn, Murphy, and Topel’s analysis. From 1965 to 2002 the increase in women’s labor force participation more than offsets the decline for men, and low unemployment rates in the 1990s were accompanied by historically low overall non- employment rates. We find that women’s measures of labor market slackness do as well as men’s in explaining real compensation growth and changes in inflation after 1983. We also find some evidence that non-employment rates are more closely related to changes in inflation than other measures of labor market slackness; however, we do not find the same for real compensation growth.Labor market ; Phillips curve ; Wages ; Inflation (Finance)

Obesity, disability, and the labor force

Men of prime working age have increased their non-employment rates over the past 30 years, and disability rates have also increased. Many have noted that this increase has happened against a backdrop of generally improving health in the U.S. population. However, obesity has increased substantially over this period. The authors find that changes in the characteristics of male workers—including age, race, ethnicity, and obesity levels—can explain a large portion (around 40 percent) of the increase in non-employment.Obesity ; Unemployment