Model Selection for Support Vector Machine Classification

We address the problem of model selection for Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification. For fixed functional form of the kernel, model selection amounts to tuning kernel parameters and the slack penalty coefficient $C$. We begin by reviewing a recently developed probabilistic framework for SVM classification. An extension to the case of SVMs with quadratic slack penalties is given and a simple approximation for the evidence is derived, which can be used as a criterion for model selection. We also derive the exact gradients of the evidence in terms of posterior averages and describe how they can be estimated numerically using Hybrid Monte Carlo techniques. Though computationally demanding, the resulting gradient ascent algorithm is a useful baseline tool for probabilistic SVM model selection, since it can locate maxima of the exact (unapproximated) evidence. We then perform extensive experiments on several benchmark data sets. The aim of these experiments is to compare the performance of probabilistic model selection criteria with alternatives based on estimates of the test error, namely the so-called ``span estimate'' and Wahba's Generalized Approximate Cross-Validation (GACV) error. We find that all the ``simple'' model criteria (Laplace evidence approximations, and the Span and GACV error estimates) exhibit multiple local optima with respect to the hyperparameters. While some of these give performance that is competitive with results from other approaches in the literature, a significant fraction lead to rather higher test errors. The results for the evidence gradient ascent method show that also the exact evidence exhibits local optima, but these give test errors which are much less variable and also consistently lower than for the simpler model selection criteria

Changes in gynecologic and breast cancer diagnoses during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: analysis from a tertiary academic gyneco-oncological center in Germany

PURPOSE With the beginning of 2021, the world has been suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic for more than 1 year. More and more, we are able to evaluate side effects of the pandemic in the healthcare sector. A negative impact on cancer diagnoses is one of them. Careful observation of trends in an academic gyneco-oncological context appears important to identify potential negative developments. METHODS We analyzed the case number of gynecologic and breast cancer diagnoses in the period from January to June 2020 compared to 2019 and during the period of the first general German lockdown (March 22nd until May 5th 2020). Patients were characterized by age, tumor type, FIGO or TNM stage and presence of symptoms at initial hospital presentation. RESULTS The frequency of newly diagnosed gynecologic and breast cancer cases from beginning of January until end of June changed by - 10% and by - 12% during the lockdown in 2020 compared to 2019. In both periods, reduction of breast cancer cases was relatively larger than decrease of gynecologic cancers. Moreover, median patient age decreased. For the first half of 2020, we found a shift towards higher tumor stages (N+/M1 or FIGO III-IV). During the lockdown period, the appearance of tumor-associated symptoms at diagnosis increased by about 12%. CONCLUSION This analysis illustrates the anticipated general decrease in diagnoses of primary cancers during the lockdown periods in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic for gynecologic and breast cancer cases

The intravascular volume effect of Ringer's lactate is below 20%: a prospective study in humans

Introduction: Isotonic crystalloids play a central role in perioperative fluid management. Isooncotic preparations of colloids (for example, human albumin or hydroxyethyl starch) remain nearly completely intravascular when infused to compensate for acute blood losses. Recent data were interpreted to indicate a comparable intravascular volume effect for crystalloids, challenging the occasionally suggested advantage of using colloids to treat hypovolemia. General physiological knowledge and clinical experience, however, suggest otherwise. Methods: In a prospective study, double-tracer blood volume measurements were performed before and after intended normovolemic hemodilution in ten female adults, simultaneously substituting the three-fold amount of withdrawn blood with Ringer's lactate. Any originated deficits were substituted with half the volume of 20% human albumin, followed by a further assessment of blood volume. To assess significance between the measurements, repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) according to Fisher were performed. If significant results were shown, paired t tests (according to Student) for the singular measurements were taken. P < 0.05 was considered to be significant. Results: A total of 1,097 +/- 285 ml of whole blood were withdrawn (641 +/- 155 ml/m2 body surface area) and simultaneously replaced by 3,430 +/- 806 ml of Ringer's lactate. All patients showed a significant decrease in blood volume after hemodilution (-459 +/- 185 ml; P < 0.05) that did not involve relevant hemodynamical changes, and a significant increase in interstitial water content (+ 2,157 +/- 606 ml; P < 0.05). The volume effect of Ringer's lactate was 17 +/- 10%. The infusion of 245 +/- 64 ml of 20% human albumin in this situation restored blood volume back to baseline values, the volume effect being 184 +/- 63%. Conclusions: Substitution of isolated intravascular deficits in cardiopulmonary healthy adults with the three-fold amount of Ringer's lactate impedes maintenance of intravascular normovolemia. The main side effect was an impressive interstitial fluid accumulation, which was partly restored by the intravenous infusion of 20% human albumin. We recommend to substitute the five-fold amount of crystalloids or to use an isooncotic preparation in the face of acute bleeding in patients where edema prevention might be advantageous

Crop Updates 2011 - Cereals

This session covers eleven papers from different authors: OPENING, NEW CROP VARIETIES & DECISION SUPPORT Opening 1. Overview of the 2010 season, David Bowran, Director, Practice and Systems Innovation, Department of Agriculture and Food, 2. My experience in a drought as a farmer and consultant, Bill Crabtree, Morawa, Western Australia 3. Meeting the productivity and sustainability challenges to Australian agriculture until 2030, Peter Carberry, CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship New Crop Varieties 4. National Variety Trials (NTV) wheat variety performance – captivity vs broadacre, Peter Burgess, Kalyx Agriculture 5. WALAN2289 – a new lupin variety to replace Mandelup in the system, Bevan Buirchell, Department of Agriculture and Food 6. The strengths and pitfalls of different grades of new wheat varieties in Western Australia Ben Curtis, Sarah Ellis, Brenda Shackley, Christine Zaicou, Department of Agriculture and Food, 7. Yield performance of temperate and tropical rice varieties in the Ord River Irrigation Areas (ORIA) Siva Sivapalan, Penny Goldsmith and Gae Plunkett, Department of Agriculture and Food Decision Support 8. A new phenology model (DM) for wheat, Darshan Sharma, Mario D’Antuono, Brenda Shackley, Christine Zaicou, Ben Curtis, Department of Agriculture and Food 9. PeatFax Map and the Weed Seed Wizard: tools to help with crop protection, Art Diggle1, Peter Mangano1, Sally Peltzer1, Michael Renton2, Bill Macleod1, Fumie Horiuchi1, George Wyatt1 1Department of Agriculture and Food, 2University of Western Australia 10. Soil management calculator for predicting phosphorus losses under cropping systems in Western Australia, Geoff Anderson1, Richard Bell2, Ross Brennan1 and Wen Chen2, 1Department of Agriculture and Food, 2School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University 11. Tools to assist growers understand the impacts of management decisions in the high rainfall zone, Penny Riffkin, Department of Primary Industries, Victoria, Hamilto

Crop Updates 2002 - Cereals

This session covers thirty one papers from different authors: VARIETIES AND BREEDING 1. Agronomic evaluation of wheat and barley in the central wheatbelt of Western Australia, Peter Burgess1and Gary Fawell2, 1Agritech and 2Farmanco Management 2. Evaluating stress tolerance to terminal drought by Western Australian wheats, Dean Diepeveen and Dr Tim Setter, Department of Agriculture 3. Broadscale wheat variety comparisons featuring Wyalkatchem, Jeff Russell, Department of Agriculture 4. Australian crop accreditation system variety selector, Tony Seymour, Australian Crop Accreditation System 5. Future wheat varieties, Robin Wilson, Iain Barclay,Robyn McLean, Robert Loughman, Jenny Garlinge, Bill Lambe, Neil Venn and Peter Clarke, Department of Agriculture AGRONOMY 6. Beware of wheat variety interactions with row spacing and seed rate, Mohammad Amjad and Wal Anderson, Department of Agriculture 7. Yield and falling numbers of wheat varieties on the South Coast, Mohammad Amjad and Wal Anderson, Department of Agriculture 8. Maximising wheat variety performance through agronomic management, Wal Anderson, Raffaele Del Cima, James Bee, Darshan Sharma, Sheena Lyon, Melaine Kupsch, Mohammad Amjad, Pam Burgess, Veronika Reck, Brenda Shackley, Ray Tugwell, BindiWebb and Steve Penny Jr, Department of Agriculture 9. High impact of soil type and seasonal rainfall on optimum wheat seed rate , Raffaele Del Cima and Wal Anderson Department of Agriculture 10. 101 seasons in one day: Using the ‘WA Wheat’ database to predict wheat yield, James Fisher1, Bill Bowden1, Craig Scanlan1, Senthold Asseng2and Michael Robertson2 1Department of Agriculture, 2CSIRO 11. Economics of improving compact soils, M.A. Hamza1, G. McConnell2and W.K. Anderson1, 1Department of Agriculture, 2Planfarm 12. Reducing the risks in producing durum wheat in Western Australia, Md Shahajahan Miyan and Wal Anderson, Department of Agriculture 13. Taking the Why out of Wyalkatchem – the new widely adopted wheat variety, Steve Penny, Department of Agriculture 14. Influence of nutrition and environmental factors on seed vigour in wheat, Darshan Sharma, Wal Anderson and Daya Patabendige, Department of Agriculture NUTRITION 15. N and K are important for oat yield and quality, Patrick Gethin, Stephen Loss, Tim O’Dea, Ryan Guthrie and Lisa Leaver, CSBP Futurefarm 16. Effects of nitrogen and phosphorus on the grain yield and quality of noodle wheat, Tyrone Henning1, Lionel Martin1and Wal Anderson2 1Muresk Institute of Agriculture, 2Department of Agriculture 17. Assessment of a high input fertiliser regime on the yield and quality of Gairdner barley, Narelle Hill1, Simon Wallwork2and Laurence Carslake2 1Department of Agriculture, 2Wesfarmers Landmark 18. The use of Flexi-N to achieve high yielding, high protein wheat, Darren Hughes1, Lionel Martin1, Wal Anderson2and Stephen Loss3 1Muresk Institute of Agriculture, 2Department of Agriculture, 3CSBP Futurefarm 19. Are liquid phosphorus fertilisers more efficient than solid fertilisers in Western Australia?Stephen Loss, Lisa Leaver, Ryan Guthrie, Patrick Gethin and Tim O’Dea, CSBP Futurefarm 20. Oats respond to phosphorus and potassium, Glenn McDonald, Department of Agriculture PESTS AND DISEASES 21. Cereal disease diagnostics and rust monitoring, Nichole Burges and Dominie Wright, Department of Agriculture 22. Distribution and incidence of aphids and barley yellow dwarf virus in over-summering grasses in the Western Australian wheatbelt, Jenny Hawkes and Roger Jones, Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture and Department of Agriculture 23. Spring sprays for powdery mildew control in cereals, Kith Jayasena1, Kazue Tanaka1, Vanessa Johnson1, Robert Loughman1and Josh Jury2 1Department of Agriculture, 2Wesfarmers Landmark 24. Impact of root lesion nematodes on wheat and triticale in Western Australia, Sean Kelly and Shashi Sharma, Department of Agriculture 25. Cropping options for the management of root lesion nematodes in Western Australia, Sean Kelly, Shashi Sharma and Robert Loughman, Department of Agriculture 26. Cereal rust update 2002 – new stem rust on Camm wheat, Robert Loughman1and Robert Park2 1Department of Agriculture, 2University of Sydney 27. Cereal aphids and direct feeding damage to cereals, Phil Michael, Department of Agriculture 28. A decision support system for control of aphids and BYDV in cereal crops, Debbie Thackray, Jenny Hawkes and Roger Jones, Department of Agriculture and Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture STORAGE 29. Aeration – opportunity for profit, Christopher Newman, Department of Agriculture CLIMATE 30. Financial impact of frost on the Western Australian grains industry, Garren Knell and Kim Povey, ConsultAg 31. Summary of 2001 weather and seasonal prospects for 2002, David Stephens, Department of Agricultur

Crop Updates 2003 - Cereals

This session covers twenty one papers from different authors: PLENARY 1. Recognising and responding to new market opportunities in the grains industry, Graham Crosbie, Manager, Grain Products Research, Crop Breeding, Plant Industries, Department of Agriculture 2. Stripe rust – where to now for the WA wheat industry? Robert Loughman1, Colin Wellings2 and Greg Shea11Department of Agriculture, 2University of Sydney Plant Breeding Institute, Cobbitty (on secondment from NSW Agriculture) 3. Benefits of a Grains Biosecurity Plan, Dr Simon McKirdy, Plant Health Australia, Mr Greg Shea, Department of Agriculture 4. Can we improve the drought tolerance of our crops? Neil C. Turner, CSIRO Plant Industry, Wembley 5. The silence of the lambing, Ross Kingwell, Department of Agriculture AGRONOMY AND VARIETIES 6. Maximising performance of wheat varieties, Brenda Shackley, Wal Anderson, Darshan Sharma, Mohammad Amjad, Steve Penny Jr, Melanie Kupsch, Anne Smith, Veronika Reck, Pam Burgess, Glenda Smith and Elizabeth Tierney, Department of Agriculture 7. Wheat variety performance in wet and dry, Peter Burgess 8. e-VarietyGuide for stripe rust – an updated version (1.02 – 2003), Moin Salam, Megan Collins, Art Diggle and Robert Loughman, Department of Agriculture 9. Baudin and Hamelin – new generation of malting barley developed in Western Australia, Blakely Paynter, Roslyn Jettner and Kevin Young, Department of Agriculture 10. Oaten hay production, Jocelyn Ball, Natasha Littlewood and Lucy Anderton, Department of Agriculture 11. Improving waterlogging tolerance in wheat and barley, Irene Waters and Tim Setter, Department of Agriculture 12. Broadscale variety comparisons featuring new wheat varieties, Jeff Russell, Department of Agriculture, Centre for Cropping Systems BIOTECHNOLOGY 13. Barley improvement in the Western Region – the intergration of biotechnologies, Reg Lance, Chengdao Li and Sue Broughton, Department of Agriculture 14. The Western Australian State Agricultural Biotechnology Centre – what we are and what we do, Michael Jones, WA State Agricultural Biotechnology Centre, Murdoch University 15. Protein and DNA methods for variety identification, Dr Grace Zawko, Saturn Biotech Limited 16. The Centre for High-throughput Agricultural Genetic Analysis (CHAGA), Keith Gregg, CHAGA, Murdoch University NUTRITION 17. Potassium – topdressed, drilled or banded? Stephen Loss, Patrick Gethin, Ryan Guthrie, Daniel Bell, Wesfarmers CSBP 18. Liquid phosphorus fertilisers in WA, Stephen Loss, Frank Ripper, Ryan Guthrie, Daniel Bell and Patrick Gethin, Wesfarmers CSBP 19. Wheat nutrition in the high rainfall cropping zone, Narelle Hill1and Laurence Carslake2, 1Department of Agriculture, 2Wesfarmers Landmark PESTS AND DISEASES 20. Managenent options for root lesion nematode in West Australian cropping systems, Vivien Vanstone, Sean Kelly and Helen Hunter, Department of Agriculture STORAGE 21. Aeration can profit your grain enterprise, Christopher R. Newman, Department of Agricultur

Crop Updates 2006 - Cereals

This session covers twenty nine papers from different authors: PLENARY 1. The 2005 wheat streak mosaic virus epidemic in New South Wales and the threat posed to the Western Australian wheat industry, Roger Jones and Nichole Burges, Department of Agriculture SOUTH COAST AGRONOMY 2. South coast wheat variety trial results and best options for 2006, Mohammad Amjad, Ben Curtis and Wal Anderson, Department of Agriculture 3. Dual purpose winter wheats to improve productivity, Mohammad Amjad and Ben Curtis, Department of Agriculture 4. South coast large-scale premium wheat variety trials, Mohammad Amjad and Ben Curtis, Department of Agriculture 5. Optimal input packages for noodle wheat in Dalwallinu – Liebe practice for profit trial, Darren Chitty, Agritech Crop Research and Brianna Peake, Liebe Group 6. In-crop risk management using yield prophet®, Harm van Rees1, Cherie Reilly1, James Hunt1, Dean Holzworth2, Zvi Hochman2; 1Birchip Cropping Group, Victoria; 2CSIRO, Toowoomba, Qld 7. Yield Prophet® 2005 – On-line yield forecasting, James Hunt1, Harm van Rees1, Zvi Hochman2,Allan Peake2, Neal Dalgliesh2, Dean Holzworth2, Stephen van Rees1, Trudy McCann1 and Peter Carberry2; 1Birchip Cropping Group, Victoria; 2CSIRO, Toowoomba, Qld 8. Performance of oaten hay varieties in Western Australian environments, Raj Malik and Kellie Winfield, Department of Agriculture 9. Performance of dwarf potential milling varieties in Western Australian environments, Kellie Winfield and Raj Malik, Department of Agriculture 10. Agronomic responses of new wheat varieties in the Southern agricultural region of WA, Brenda Shackley and Judith Devenish, Department of Agriculture 11. Responses of new wheat varieties to management factors in the central agricultural region of Western Australia, Darshan Sharma, Steve Penny and Wal Anderson,Department of Agriculture 12. Sowing time on wheat yield, quality and $ - Northern agricultural region, Christine Zaicou-Kunesch, Department of Agriculture NUTRITION 13.The most effective method of applying phosphorus, copper and zinc to no-till crops, Mike Bolland and Ross Brennan, Department of Agriculture 14. Uptake of K from the soil profile by wheat, Paul Damon and Zed Rengel, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of Western Australia 15. Reducing nitrogen fertiliser risks, Jeremy Lemon, Department of Agriculture 16. Yield Prophet® and canopy management, Harm van Rees1, Zvi Hochman2, Perry Poulton2, Nick Poole3, Brooke Thompson4, James Hunt1; 1Birchip Cropping Group, Victoria; 2CSIRO, Toowoomba, Qld; 3Foundation for Arable Research, New Zealand; 4Cropfacts, Victoria 17. Producing profits with phosphorus, Stephen Loss, CSBP Ltd, WA 18. Potassium response in cereal cropping within the medium rainfall central wheatbelt, Jeff Russell1, Angie Roe2 and James Eyres2, Department of Agriculture1, Farm Focus Consultants, Northam2 19. Matching nitrogen supply to wheat demand in the high rainfall cropping zone, Narelle Simpson, Ron McTaggart, Wal Anderson, Lionel Martin and Dave Allen, Department of Agriculture DISEASES 20. Comparative study of commercial wheat cultivars and differential lines (with known Pm resistance genes) to powdery mildew response, Hossein Golzar, Manisha Shankar and Robert Loughman, Department of Agriculture 21. On farm research to investigate fungicide applications to minimise leaf disease impacts in wheat – part II, Jeff Russell1, Angie Roe2and James Eyres2, Department of Agriculture1, and Farm Focus Consultants, Northam2 22. Disease resistance update for wheat varieties in WA, Manisha Shankar, John Majewski, Donna Foster, Hossein Golzar, Jamie Piotrowski, Nicole Harry and Rob Loughman, Department of Agriculture 23. Effect of time of stripe rust inoculum arrival on variety response in wheat, Manisha Shankar, John Majewski and Rob Loughman, Department of Agriculture 24. Fungicide seed dressing management of loose smut in Baudin barley, Geoff Thomas and Kith Jayasena, Department of Agriculture PESTS 25. How to avoid insect contamination in cereal grain at harvest, Svetlana Micic, Paul Matson and Tony Dore, Department of Agriculture ABIOTIC 26. Environment – is it as important as variety in sprouting tolerance? Thomas (Ben) Biddulph1, Dr Daryl Mares1, Dr Julie Plummer1 and Dr Tim Setter2, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia1 and Department of Agriculture2 27. Frost or fiction, Garren Knell, Steve Curtin and Wade Longmuir, ConsultAg Pty Ltd, WA 28. High moisture wheat harvesting in Esperance 2005, Nigel Metz, South East Premium Wheat Growers Association (SEPWA) Projects Coordinator, Esperance, WA SOILS 28. Hardpan penetration ability of wheat roots, Tina Botwright Acuña and Len Wade, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia MARKETS 29. Crop shaping to meet predicted market demands for wheat in the 21st Century, Cindy Mills and Peter Stone,Australian Wheat Board, Melbourn

Crop Updates 2002 - Farming Systems

This session covers forty one papers from different authors: INTRODUCTION 1. Future Farming Systems session for Crop Updates 2002 Peter Metcalf, FARMING SYSTEMS SUBPROGRAM MANAGER GRAINS PROGRAM Department of Agriculture 2. Perennial pastures in annual cropping systems: Lucerne and beyond, the ‘Big Picture’, Mike Ewing, Deputy CEO CRC for Plant-based Management of Dryland Salinity, Department of Agriculture 3. Perennial pastures in annual cropping systems: lucerne and beyond, Roy Latta and Keith Devenish, Department of Agriculture 4. Establishing Lucerne with a cover crop, Diana Fedorenko1, Clayton Butterly1, Chantelle Butterly1, Kim and Neil Diamond2, Stuart McAlpine2, Bill Bowden1, Jessica Johns3, 1Centre for Cropping Systems, Northam, 2Farmer, Buntine, 3Department of Agriculture 5. Overcropping: Chemical suppression of Lucerne, Terry Piper1, Diana Fedorenko1, Clayton Butterly1, Chantelle Butterly1, Stuart McAlpine2, Jessica Johns3, 1Centre for Cropping Systems, Northam, 2Farmer, Buntine, 3Department of Agriculture 6. Overcropping: Effect of Lucerne density on crop yield, Diana Fedorenko1, Bill Bowden1, Clayton Butterly1, Chantelle Butterly1, Stuart McAlpine2, Terry Piper1,1Centre for Cropping Systems, Department of Agriculture, Northam, 2Farmer, Buntine 7. Residual effect of weed management in the third year of Lucerne on the following wheat crop, Diana Fedorenko1, Clayton Butterly1, Chantelle Butterly1, Stuart McAlpine2,Terry Piper1, David Bowran1, Jessica Johns3,1Centre for Cropping Systems, Northam, 2Farmer, Buntine, 3Department of Agriculture 8. Production of Lucerne and serradella in four soil types, Diana Fedorenko1 Clayton Butterly1, Chantelle Butterly1, Robert Beard2 1Centre for Cropping Systems, Department of Agriculture, 2Farmer, Cunderdin 9. The effect of spray topping on newly established Lucerne, Keith Devenish, Agriculture Western Australia 10. Leakage from phase rotations involving Lucerne, Phil Ward, CSIRO Plant Industry 11. Fungal diseases present in Western Australian Lucerne crops, Dominie Wright and Nichole Burges, Department of Agriculture 12. Survey of Western Australian Lucerne stands reveals widespread virus infection, Roger Jones and Danae Harman, Crop Improvement Institute, Department of Agriculture, and Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture, University of WA ANNUAL PASTURE SYSTEMS 13. The use of Twist Fungus as a biosecurity measure against Annual Ryegrass Toxicity (ARGT), Greg Shea, GrainGuard Coordinator and George Yan, Biological and Resource Technology 14.Limitations and opportunities for increasing water use by annual crops and pastures, David Tennant1, Phil Ward2and David Hall1 1Department of Agriculture, 2CSIRO, Plant Industries, Floreat Park 15. Developing pasture species mixtures for more productive and sustainable cropping systems – 2001 crop performance, Anyou Liu, Clinton Revell and Candy Hudson, Centre for Cropping Systems, Department of Agriculture 16. Developing pasture species mixtures for more productive and sustainable cropping systems – weed management in regenerating mixtures, Anyou Liu and Clinton Revell, Centre for Cropping Systems, Department of Agriculture 17. Aphid tolerance of annual pasture legumes, Andrew Blake, Natalie Lauritsen, Department of Agriculture 18. Selecting the right variety for phase pasture systems, Keith Devenish, Department of Agriculture 19. Responses of alternative annual pasture and forage legumes to challenge with infectious subterranean clover mottle virus, John Fosu-Nyarko, Roger Jones, Lisa Smith, Mike Jones and Geoff Dwyer, State Agricultural Biotechnology Centre and Centre for Bioinformatics and Biological Computing, Murdoch University, Department of Agriculture, and Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture SOIL AND LAND MANAGEMENT 20. Nutrition in 2002: Decisions to be made as a result of last season, Bill Bowden,Western Australia Department of Agriculture 21. Profitability of deep banding lime, Michael O\u27Connell, Chris Gazey and David Gartner, Department of Agriculture 22. Lime efficiency percentage…the new measure of lime effectiveness for Western Australia, Amanda Miller, Department of Agriculture 23. Boron – should we be worried about it, Richard W. BellA, K. FrostA, Mike WongBand Ross BrennanC ASchool of Environmental Science, Murdoch University, BCSIRO Land and Water, CDepartment of Agriculture 24. Impact of claying and other amelioration on paddock profit, N.J. Blake1, G. McConnell2, D. Patabendige1and N. Venn11Department of Agriculture, 2PlanFarm P/L 25. Raised bed farming in the 2001 growing season, Derk Bakker, Greg Hamilton, Dave Houlbrooke and Cliff Spann, Department of Agriculture 26. Economics of tramline farming systems, Paul Blackwell and Bindi Webb, Department of Agriculture, Stuart McAlpine, Liebe Group. 27. Relay planting from Tramlines to increase water use and productivity os summer crops, Dr Paul Blackwell, Department of Agriculture, Neil and Kim Diamond, Buntine. Liebe Group 28.Evidence-based zone management of paddock variability to improve profits and environmental outcomes, M.T.F. WongA, D. PatabendigeB, G. LyleA and K. WittwerA ACSIRO Land and Water, BDepartment of Agriculture 29. How much soil water is lost over summer in sandy soils? Perry Dolling1, Senthold Asseng2, Ian Fillery2, Phil Ward2and Michael Robertson3 1University of Western Australia/Department of Agriculture Western Australia/CSIRO, 2CSIRO Plant Industry 3CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Indooroopilly, Queensland FARMER DECISION SUPPORT AND ADOPTION 30. Economic comparisons of farming systems for the medium rainfall northern sandplain, No 1, Caroline Peek and David Rogers, Department of Agriculture 31. Sensitivity analysis of farming systems for the medium rainfall northern sandplain No 2, Caroline Peek and David Rogers, Department of Agriculture 32. Transition analysis of farming systems in the medium rainfall northern sandplain. No 3, Caroline Peek and David Rogers, Department of Agriculture 33. Implementing on-farm quality assurance, Peter Portmann, Manager Research and Development, The Grain Pool of Western Australia 34. On-farm research – principles of the ‘Test As You Grow’ kit, Jeff Russell, Department of Agriculture 35. Broadscale wheat variety comparisons featuring Wyalkatchem, Jeff Russell, Department of Agriculture 36. GrainGuardÔ - A biosecurity plan for the Canola Industry,Greg Shea Department of Agriculture 37. Are Western Australian broadacre farms efficient? Ben Henderson, University of Western Australia, Ross Kingwell, Department of Agriculture and University of Western Australia DISEASE MODELLING WORKSHOP 38. WORKSHOP: Pest and disease forecasts for you! An interactive forum, Tresslyn Walmsley, Jean Galloway, Debbie Thackray, Moin Salam and Art Diggle, Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture and Department of Agriculture 39. Blackspot spread: Disease models are based in reality (Workshop paper 1), JeanGalloway,Department of Agriculture 40. Blackspot spread: Scaling-up field data to simulate ‘Baker’s farm’ (Workshop paper 2), Moin U. Salam, Jean Galloway, Art J. Diggle and William J. MacLeod, Department of Agriculture, Western Australia 41. A decision support system for control of aphids and CMV in lupin crops (Workshop paper 3), Debbie Thackray, Jenny Hawkes and Roger Jones, Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture and Department of Agricultur

Courting the South: Lula’s Trade Diplomacy

Scholarly consensus regarding Brazil's Lula government characterizes its economic policy as surprisingly conservative but its foreign policy as roughly in line with the traditionally leftist principles of the Workers' Party. While broadly accurate, this perspective tells us little about trade diplomacy, which cuts across these two policy areas. In this article we explain why Lula's trade diplomacy has hewed much more closely to his broader foreign policy strategy than his economic model, despite the critical role of trade in Brazil's recent economic growth. We argue that two key factors have lowered the costs of adopting a combative, South-South orientation, allowing Lula to use trade diplomacy as a tool for appealing to party loyalists. One is the inherently muted short-term impact of trade diplomacy on key macro-economic outcomes. The other is the failure of the traditional trading powers to offer the incentives necessary to successfully conclude the major North-South trade talks they had initiated

From Disease Association to Risk Assessment: An Optimistic View from Genome-Wide Association Studies on Type 1 Diabetes

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been fruitful in identifying disease susceptibility loci for common and complex diseases. A remaining question is whether we can quantify individual disease risk based on genotype data, in order to facilitate personalized prevention and treatment for complex diseases. Previous studies have typically failed to achieve satisfactory performance, primarily due to the use of only a limited number of confirmed susceptibility loci. Here we propose that sophisticated machine-learning approaches with a large ensemble of markers may improve the performance of disease risk assessment. We applied a Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm on a GWAS dataset generated on the Affymetrix genotyping platform for type 1 diabetes (T1D) and optimized a risk assessment model with hundreds of markers. We subsequently tested this model on an independent Illumina-genotyped dataset with imputed genotypes (1,008 cases and 1,000 controls), as well as a separate Affymetrix-genotyped dataset (1,529 cases and 1,458 controls), resulting in area under ROC curve (AUC) of ∼0.84 in both datasets. In contrast, poor performance was achieved when limited to dozens of known susceptibility loci in the SVM model or logistic regression model. Our study suggests that improved disease risk assessment can be achieved by using algorithms that take into account interactions between a large ensemble of markers. We are optimistic that genotype-based disease risk assessment may be feasible for diseases where a notable proportion of the risk has already been captured by SNP arrays