The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing.</p> <p>The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.</p

Union Administrative Practices: A Comparative Analysis

In response to growing challenges, many labor organizations are reevaluating themselves in an effort to become more efficient and effective. Their efforts, however, are limited by their frames of reference. Seldom do unions compare practices across labor movements. To expand these frames of reference we compare union administrative practices in three countries: Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Two specific areas of union administration are examined — human resource/personnel practices and strategic planning. Results from these countries are presented and analyzed to identify and explain similarities and differences

Migration from China to the EU: the challenge within Europe

At the beginning of the 21st Century, we have witnessed a rapid growth in Chinese immigration to the European Union (EU), which has had a profound impact on local Chinese communities in various ways. This chapter aims to reveal the latest developments in Chinese immigration in the EU, as well as the new dynamics, features and impacts on local Chinese communities. The above questions are addressed by a combination of secondary data analysis and our own observation in Italy and the UK in recent years. Some challenging issues facing Chinese communities are highlighted