Prolonged acute mechanical ventilation and hospital bed utilization in 2020 in the United States: implications for budgets, plant and personnel planning

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Adult patients on prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (PAMV) comprise 1/3 of all adult MV patients, consume 2/3 of hospital resources allocated to MV population, and are nearly twice as likely to require a discharge to a skilled nursing facility (SNF). Their numbers are projected to double by year 2020. To aid in planning for this growth, we projected their annualized days and costs of hospital use and SNF discharges in year 2020 in the US.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We constructed a model estimating the relevant components of hospital utilization. We computed the total days and costs for each component; we also applied the risk for SNF discharge to the total 2020 PAMV population. The underlying assumption was that process of care does not change over the time horizon. We performed Monte Carlo simulations to establish 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the point estimates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Given 2020 projected PAMV volume of 605,898 cases, they will require 3.6 (95% CI 2.7–4.8) million MV, 5.5 (95% CI 4.3–7.0) million ICU and 10.3 (95% CI 8.1–13.0) million hospital days, representing an absolute increase of 2.1 million MV, 3.2 million ICU and 6.5 million hospital days over year 2000, at a total inflation-adjusted cost of over $64 billion. Expected discharges to SNF are 218,123 (95% CI 177,268–266,739), compared to 90,928 in 2000.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our model suggest that the projected growth in the US in PAMV population by 2020 will result in annualized increases of more than 2, 3, and 6 million MV, ICU and hospital days, respectively, over year 2000. Such growth requires careful planning efforts and attention to efficiency of healthcare delivery.</p

Does the Impact of Managed Care on Substance Abuse Treatment Services Vary by Provider Profit Status?

OBJECTIVE: To extend our previous research by determining whether, and how, the impact of managed care (MC) on substance abuse treatment (SAT) services differs by facility ownership. DATA SOURCES: The 2000 National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services, which is designed to collect data on service offerings and other characteristics of SAT facilities in the U.S. These data are merged with data from the 2002 Area Resource File, a county-specific database containing information on population and MC activity. We use data on 10,513 facilities, virtually a census of all SAT facilities. STUDY DESIGN: For each facility ownership type (for-profit [FP], not-for-profit [NFP], public), we estimate the impact of MC on the number and types of SAT services offered. We use instrumental variables techniques that account for possible endogeneity between facilities' involvement in MC and service offerings. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We find that the impact of MC on SAT service offerings differs in magnitude and direction by facility ownership. On average, MC causes FPs to offer approximately four additional services, causes publics to offer approximately four fewer services, and has no impact on the number of services offered by NFPs. The differential impact of MC on FPs and publics appears to be concentrated in therapy/counseling, medical testing, and transitional services. CONCLUSION: Our findings raise policy concerns that MC may reduce the quality of care provided by public SAT facilities by limiting the range of services offered. On the other hand, we find that FP clinics increase their range of services. One explanation is that MC results in standardization of service offerings across facilities of different ownership type. Further research is needed to better understand both the specific mechanisms of MC on SAT and the net impact on society