Aspirations and common tensions : larger lessons from the third US national climate assessment

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climatic Change 135 (2016): 187-201, doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1530-z.The Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was produced by experts in response to the US Global Change Research Act of 1990. Based on lessons learned from previous domestic and international assessments, the NCA3 was designed to speak to a broad public and inform the concerns of policy- and decision-makers at different scales. The NCA3 was also intended to be the first step in an ongoing assessment process that would build the nation’s capacity to respond to climate change. This concluding paper draws larger lessons from the insights gained throughout the assessment process that are of significance to future US and international assessment designers. We bring attention to process and products delivered, communication and engagement efforts, and how they contributed to the sustained assessment. Based on areas where expectations were exceeded or not fully met, we address four common tensions that all assessment designers must confront and manage: between (1) core assessment ingredients (knowledge base, institutional set-up, principled process, and the people involved), (2) national scope and subnational adaptive management information needs, (3) scope, complexity, and manageability, and (4) deliberate evaluation and ongoing learning approaches. Managing these tensions, amidst the social and political contexts in which assessments are conducted, is critical to ensure that assessments are feasible and productive, while its outcomes are perceived as credible, salient, and legitimate

Mid-Infrared Imaging of NGC 6334 I

We present high-resolution (<0.5") mid-infrared Keck II images of individual sources in the central region of NGC 6334 I. We compare these images to images at a variety of other wavelengths from the near infrared to cm radio continuum and speculate on the nature of the NGC 6334 I sources. We assert that the cometary shape of the UCHII region here, NGC 6334 F, is due to a champagne-like flow from a source on the edge of a molecular clump and not a due to a bow shock caused by the supersonic motion of the UCHII region through the interstellar medium. The mid-infrared emission in concentrated into an arc of dust that define the boundary between the UCHII region and the molecular clump. This dust arc contains a majority of the masers in the region. We discuss the nature of the four near-infrared sources associated with IRS-I 1, and suggest that one of the sources, IRS1E, is responsible for the heating and ionizing of the UCHII region and the mid-infrared dust arc. Infrared source IRS-I 2, which has been thought to be a circumstellar disk associated with a linear distribution of methanol masers, is found not to be directly coincident with the masers and elongated at a much different position angle. IRS-I 3 is found to be a extended source of mid-infrared emission coming from a cluster of young dusty sources seen in the near-infrared.Comment: Accepted for publication by the Astrophysical Journal, 27 pages, 9 figure

First Science Results From SOFIA/FORCAST: Super-Resolution Imaging of the S140 Cluster at 37\micron

We present 37\micron\ imaging of the S140 complex of infrared sources centered on IRS1 made with the FORCAST camera on SOFIA. These observations are the longest wavelength imaging to resolve clearly the three main sources seen at shorter wavelengths, IRS 1, 2 and 3, and are nearly at the diffraction limit of the 2.5-m telescope. We also obtained a small number of images at 11 and 31\micron\ that are useful for flux measurement. Our images cover the area of several strong sub-mm sources seen in the area -- SMM 1, 2, and 3 -- that are not coincident with any mid-infrared sources and are not visible in our longer wavelength imaging either. Our new observations confirm previous estimates of the relative dust optical depth and source luminosity for the components in this likely cluster of early B stars. We also investigate the use of super-resolution to go beyond the basic diffraction limit in imaging on SOFIA and find that the van Cittert algorithm, together with the "multi-resolution" technique, provides excellent results

Crystalline Silicate Emission in the Protostellar Binary Serpens--SVS20

We present spatially resolved mid-infrared spectroscopy of the class I/flat-spectrum protostellar binary system SVS20 in the Serpens cloud core. The spectra were obtained with the mid-infrared instrument T-ReCS on Gemini-South. SVS20-South, the more luminous of the two sources, exhibits a mid-infrared emission spectrum peaking near 11.3 \micron, while SVS20-North exhibits a shallow amorphous silicate absorption spectrum with a peak optical depth of $\tau \sim 0.3$. After removal of the the line-of-sight extinction by the molecular common envelope, the ``protostar-only'' spectra are found to be dominated by strong amorphous olivine emission peaking near 10 \micron. We also find evidence for emission from crystalline forsterite and enstatite associated with both SVS20-S and SVS20-N. The presence of crystalline silicate in such a young binary system indicates that the grain processing found in more evolved HAeBe and T Tauri pre-main sequence stars likely begins at a relatively young evolutionary stage, while mass accretion is still ongoing.Comment: Accepted for publication by The Astrophysical Journa

High Resolution mid-Infrared Imaging of SN 1987A

Using the Thermal-Region Camera and Spectrograph (T-ReCS) attached to the Gemini South 8m telescope, we have detected and resolved 10 micron emission at the position of the inner equatorial ring (ER) of supernova SN 1987A at day 6067. ``Hot spots'' similar to those found in the optical and near-IR are clearly present. The morphology of the 10 micron emission is globally similar to the morphology at other wavelengths from X-rays to radio. The observed mid-IR flux in the region of SN1987A is probably dominated by emission from dust in the ER. We have also detected the ER at 20 micron at a 4 sigma level. Assuming that thermal dust radiation is the origin of the mid-IR emission, we derive a dust temperature of 180^{+20}_{-10} K, and a dust mass of 1.- 8. 10^{-5} Mo for the ER. Our observations also show a weak detection of the central ejecta at 10 micron. We show that previous bolometric flux estimates (through day 2100) were not significantly contaminated by this newly discovered emission from the ER. If we assume that the energy input comes from radioactive decays only, our measurements together with the current theoretical models set a temperature of 90 leq T leq 100 K and a mass range of 10^{-4} - 2. 10^{-3} Mo for the dust in the ejecta. With such dust temperatures the estimated thermal emission is 9(+/-3) 10^{35} erg s^{-1} from the inner ring, and 1.5 (+/-0.5) 10^{36} erg s^{-1} from the ejecta. Finally, using SN 1987A as a template, we discuss the possible role of supernovae as major sources of dust in the Universe.Comment: aastex502, 14 pages, 4 figures; Accepted for publication in ApJ Content changed: new observations, Referee's comments and suggestion

SOFIA/FORCAST and Spitzer/IRAC Imaging of the Ultra Compact H II Region W3(OH) and Associated Protostars in W3

We present infrared observations of the ultra-compact H II region W3(OH) made by the FORCAST instrument aboard SOFIA and by Spitzer/IRAC. We contribute new wavelength data to the spectral energy distribution, which constrains the optical depth, grain size distribution, and temperature gradient of the dusty shell surrounding the H II region. We model the dust component as a spherical shell containing an inner cavity with radius ~ 600 AU, irradiated by a central star of type O9 and temperature ~ 31,000 K. The total luminosity of this system is 71,000 L_solar. An observed excess of 2.2 - 4.5 microns emission in the SED can be explained by our viewing a cavity opening or clumpiness in the shell structure whereby radiation from the warm interior of the shell can escape. We claim to detect the nearby water maser source W3 (H2O) at 31.4 and 37.1 microns using beam deconvolution of the FORCAST images. We constrain the flux densities of this object at 19.7 - 37.1 microns. Additionally, we present in situ observations of four young stellar and protostellar objects in the SOFIA field, presumably associated with the W3 molecular cloud. Results from the model SED fitting tool of Robitaille et al. (2006, 2007} suggest that two objects (2MASS J02270352+6152357 and 2MASS J02270824+6152281) are intermediate-luminosity (~ 236 - 432 L_solar) protostars; one object (2MASS J02270887+6152344) is either a high-mass protostar with luminosity 3000 L_solar or a less massive young star with a substantial circumstellar disk but depleted envelope; and one object (2MASS J02270743+6152281) is an intermediate-luminosity (~ 768 L_solar) protostar nearing the end of its envelope accretion phase or a young star surrounded by a circumstellar disk with no appreciable circumstellar envelope.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables, accepted by Ap

O/IR Polarimetry for the 2010 Decade (GAN): Science at the Edge, Sharp Tools for All

Science opportunities and recommendations concerning optical/infrared polarimetry for the upcoming decade in the field of Galactic science. Community-based White Paper to Astro2010 in response to the call for such papers.Comment: White Paper to the Galactic Neighborhood (GAN) Science Frontiers Panel of the Astro2010 Decadal Surve

First Science Observations with SOFIA/FORCAST: Properties of Intermediate-Luminosity Protostars and Circumstellar Disks in OMC-2

We examine eight young stellar objects in the OMC-2 star forming region based on observations from the SOFIA/FORCAST early science phase, the Spitzer Space Telescope, the Herschel Space Observatory, 2MASS, APEX, and other results in the literature. We show the spectral energy distributions of these objects from near-infrared to millimeter wavelengths, and compare the SEDs with those of sheet collapse models of protostars and circumstellar disks. Four of the objects can be modelled as protostars with infalling envelopes, two as young stars surrounded by disks, and the remaining two objects have double-peaked SEDs. We model the double-peaked sources as binaries containing a young star with a disk and a protostar. The six most luminous sources are found in a dense group within a 0.15 x 0.25 pc region; these sources have luminosities ranging from 300 L_sun to 20 L_sun. The most embedded source (OMC-2 FIR 4) can be fit by a class 0 protostar model having a luminosity of ~50 L_sun and mass infall rate of ~10^-4 solar masses per year.Comment: Accepted by ApJ Letter

Understanding Polarized Foreground from Dust: Towards Reliable Measurements of CMB Polarization

Science opportunities and recommendations concerning optical/infrared polarimetry for the upcoming decade in the field of cosmology. Community-based White Paper to Astro2010 in response to the call for such papers.Comment: White Paper to the Cosmology and Fundamental Physics (GCT) Science Frontiers Panel of the Astro2010 Decadal Surve

O/IR Polarimetry for the 2010 Decade (PSF): Science at the Edge, Sharp Tools for All

Science opportunities and recommendations concerning optical/infrared polarimetry for the upcoming decade in the fields of planetary systems and star formation. Community-based White Paper to Astro2010 in response to the call for such papers.Comment: White Paper to the Planetary Systems and Star Formation (PSF) Science Frontiers Panel of the Astro2010 Decadal Surve