Environmental Impacts of Electrical Generation: A Systemwide Approach

Thin report is one of a series describing a multidisciplinary multinational IIASA research study on Management of Energy/Environment Systems. The primary objective of the research is the development of quantitative tools for regional energy and environment policy design and analysis -- or, in a broader sense, the development of a coherent, realistic approach to energy/environment system management. The outputs of this research program include concepts, applied methodologies, and case studies. During 1975, case studies were emphasized; they focussed on three greatly differing regions, namely, the German Democratic Republic, the Rhone-Alpes region in southern France, and the state of Washington in the U.S.A. The IIASA research was conducted within a network of collaborating institutions composed of the Institut fuer Energetik, Leipzig; the Institut Economique et Juridique de L'Energie, Grenoble; and the University of Wisconsin, Madison. This report is concerned with the description of a systems approach to the analysis of environmental impact of electrical generating plants. The research evolved from efforts at the University of Wisconsin on the Wisconsin Energy Models and was extended at IIASA to treat impacts occurring in other regions of the world and to concepts and methodologies under study at IIASA. Other publications on the management of energy/environment systems are listed at the end of this report

A Methodology to Assess the Human Health Impact of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions from a Fossil Fuel Power Plant

This paper presents a methodology we have developed for assessing human health effects due to the emission of sulfur dioxide from a single fossil fuel power plant. This has been a difficult task to attempt in the past, containing great uncertainty; however, a new EPA model of health effects has recently been published and is, in our opinion, the best and most careful model of health impact of air pollution to date. The EPA model has current best judgements of impacts; it does not include all health effects thought to be related to air pollution. Our methodology was developed around this model using detailed air pollution data from Wisconsin. The EPA model is based on two main points. The first is that acid sulfates, not SO2, are the root cause of the health effects, and that the important averaging time is one day (24 hours). The second is the well established observation that the frequency of occurrence of different levels of pollution in the course of a year is distributed log-normally. The output of the model is the excess mortality in the population and the excess morbidity in the population for certain ailments and population subgroups due to the exposure to acid sulfates

Evaluation of Health Effects from Sulfur Dioxide Emissions for A Reference Coal-Fired Power Plant

Health effects from coal-fired power plants are causing growing concern. Interest is stimulated by delays in the use of nuclear power and the possibility of greater use of coal. A model to evaluate health effects has been developed, based on the concept of a reference 1,000 MW plant. This model has particular relevance to studies of alternative futures and analysis for long range planning. The model consists of two parts, dealing with health impact and dispersion to dosage. The health submodel is based on a study by Finklea et al. at the USEPA, and the dispersion submodel is based on results of detailed dispersion modeling and monitoring for a typical power plant. The human health impacts are parameterized in terms of SO2 emissions, population and site characteristics, and background SO2 concentration. Although these quantified impacts are only a partial indicator of the total air pollution impact, the results show that these impacts may be significant and that they should be considered in the analysis of power plant impacts

Energy/Environment Management: Application of Decision Analysis

A procedure is presented for coping with the complexities of energy/environment decision processes. A convenient framework based on multiattribute decision analysis has been developed to help a decision maker evaluate energy/environment alternatives in terms of the degree to which each of a set of objectives is met. The resulting composite environmental impact model links a preference model with a descriptive environmental impact model. The preference model allows one to evaluate alternative strategies by formally incorporating the decision maker's utilities (i.e. preferences) with the quantified environmental impacts (supplied by the descriptive impact model), the unquantified effects, and the conventional costs. Utility assessments were performed for individuals in the Rhone-Alpes region of France, the German Democratic Republic, and the state of Wisconsin in the U.S.A. The benefits of the process and its implementation appear significant

Price competition in procurement

When creating a private market to provide a public good, government agencies can influence the market`s competitive characteristics. Markets have predictable, but often counterintuitive, behaviors. To succeed in applying available controls, and thereby reduce future costs, agencies must understand the behavior of the market. A model has been constructed to examine some issues in establishing competition for a structure in which there are economies of scale and government is obligated to purchase a fixed total quantity of a good. This model is used to demonstrate a way to estimate the cost savings from several alternative plans for a buyer exploring competitive procurement. The results are not and cannot be accurate for budgeting purposes; rather, they indicate the approximate magnitude of changes in cost that would be associated with changes in the market structure within which procurement occurs

The Wisconsin-IIASA Set of Energy/Environment (WISE) Models for Regional Planning and Management: An Overview

This report presents an overview of the analytical framework and quantitative methods used in the IIASA case studies on Regional Energy/Environment Management and Planning. Its purpose is to summarize the structure of the models, to provide a complete listing of the sources of more detailed model and data descriptions, and to indicate how the models are integrated to provide a foundation for regional energy/environment policy maker analysis. The audience for the report includes managers, planners, technical advisors, and modelers. The set of models used in the research project encompasses socioeconomic links to the energy system; energy demand in the residential, industrial, commercial/service, agricultural and transportation sectors; the energy supply sector, environmental impacts associated with the energy system; and policy makers' preferences. The report gives a brief description of the purpose and general structure of each model, data requirements, examples of input and output, and model limitations. As a whole, the models integrate information about energy flows in a region to simulate the energy system and its relationship to other regional variables, e.g., demographic and economic trends and the environment

Resilience Measurement Index: An Indicator of Critical Infrastructure Resilience

56 p. ; col. ill

Summary of the technical report on estimating the impact of key programmatic risk allocation decisions on Phase 1 bids and U.S. Department of Energy costs

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is privatizing the processing of hazardous and radioactive tank waste at the Hanford Site in Washington State. As part of the privatization process, a request for proposals describing the conditions and DOE`s expectations for contractor performance and responsibilities was issued. Argonne National Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory collaborated to analyze programmatic risks and costs associated with privatization. They examined nine major risks to determine financial impacts on the prospective vendors and DOE for three alternative risk allocations: (1) DOE bears the risk, (2) the vendor bears the risk, or (3) the risk is shared. With the help of a subject-matter expert, each risk was characterized by estimating potential consequences and likelihood of occurrence. A financial risk model was developed to estimate the total cost to DOE for a given risk allocation strategy covering all nine risks. Results showed that it is financially advantageous to DOE to bear some risks, share some others, and assign some to the vendor

Loss of benefits resulting from mandated nuclear plant shutdowns

This paper identifies and discusses some of the important consequences of nuclear power plant unavailability, and quantifies a number of technical measures of loss of benefits that result from regulatory actions such as licensing delays and mandated nuclear plant outages. The loss of benefits that accompany such regulatory actions include increased costs of systems generation, increased demand for nonnuclear and often scarce fuels, and reduced system reliability. This paper is based on a series of case studies, supplemented by sensitivity studies, on hypothetical nuclear plant shutdowns. These studies were developed by Argonne in cooperation with four electric utilities

Resource Allocation Support System (RASS): Summary of the 1992 pilot study

The Resource Allocation Support System (RASS) is a decision-aiding system to assist the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Waste Management in budget decision making. Four pilot studies were conducted at DOE field offices in summer 1992 to evaluate and improve the RASS design. This paper summarizes the combined results of the field office pilot studies. Results are presented from different perspectives to illustrate the type of information that would be available from RASS. Lessons learned and directions for future RASS developments are also presented