Multimodal Machine Learning Workflows for Prediction of Psychosis in Patients With Clinical High-Risk Syndromes and Recent-Onset Depression

Importance Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear. Objectives To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system. Design, Setting, and Participants This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems. Results A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.8] years; 354 [53.0%] female and 314 [47.0%] male). Clinicians attained a balanced accuracy of 73.2% by effectively ruling out (specificity, 84.9%) but ineffectively ruling in (sensitivity, 61.5%) psychosis transition. In contrast, algorithms showed high sensitivity (76.0%-88.0%) but low specificity (53.5%-66.8%). A cybernetic risk calculator combining all algorithmic and human components predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy of 85.5% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 86.4%). In comparison, an optimal prognostic workflow produced a balanced accuracy of 85.9% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 87.3%) at a much lower diagnostic burden by sequentially integrating clinical-neurocognitive, expert-based, PRS-based, and sMRI-based risk estimates as needed for the given patient. Findings were supported by good external validation results. Conclusions and RelevanceThese findings suggest that psychosis transition can be predicted in a broader risk spectrum by sequentially integrating algorithms' and clinicians' risk estimates. For clinical translation, the proposed workflow should undergo large-scale international validation.Question Can a transition to psychosis be predicted in patients with clinical high-risk states or recent-onset depression by optimally integrating clinical, neurocognitive, neuroimaging, and genetic information with clinicians' prognostic estimates? Findings In this prognostic study of 334 patients and 334 control individuals, machine learning models sequentially combining clinical and biological data with clinicians' estimates correctly predicted disease transitions in 85.9% of cases across geographically distinct patient populations. The clinicians' lack of prognostic sensitivity, as measured by a false-negative rate of 38.5%, was reduced to 15.4% by the sequential prognostic model. Meaning These findings suggest that an individualized prognostic workflow integrating artificial and human intelligence may facilitate the personalized prevention of psychosis in young patients with clinical high-risk syndromes or recent-onset depression.</p

Increased structural covariance in brain regions for number processing and memory in children with developmental dyscalculia

Developmental dyscalculia (DD) is a developmental learning disability associated with deficits in processing numerical and mathematical information. Several studies demonstrated functional network alterations in DD. Yet, there are no studies, which examined the structural network integrity in DD. We compared whole-brain maps of volume based structural covariance between 19 (4 males) children with DD and 18 (4 males) typically developing children. We found elevated structural covariance in the DD group between the anterior intraparietal sulcus to the middle temporal and frontal gyrus (p < 0.05, corrected). A hippocampus subfield analysis showed higher structural covariance in the DD group for area CA3 to the parahippocampal and calcarine sulcus, angular gyrus and anterior part of the intraparietal sulcus as well as to the lingual gyrus. Lower structural covariance in this group was seen for the subiculum to orbitofrontal gyrus, anterior insula and middle frontal gyrus. In contrast, the primary motor cortex (control region) revealed no difference in structural covariance between groups. Our results extend functional magnetic resonance studies by revealing abnormal gray matter integrity in children with DD. These findings thus indicate that the pathophysiology of DD is mediated by both structural and functional abnormalities in a network involved in number processing and memory function

Cortical Volume Differences in Subjects at Risk for Psychosis Are Driven by Surface Area

In subjects at risk for psychosis, the studies on gray matter volume (GMV) predominantly reported volume loss compared with healthy controls (CON). However, other important morphological measurements such as cortical surface area (CSA) and cortical thickness (CT) were not systematically compared. So far, samples mostly comprised subjects at genetic risk or at clinical risk fulfilling an ultra-high risk (UHR) criterion. No studies comparing UHR subjects with at-risk subjects showing only basic symptoms (BS) investigated the differences in CSA or CT. Therefore, we aimed to unravel the contribution of the 2 morphometrical measures constituting the cortical volume (CV) and to test whether these groups inhere different morphometric features. We conducted a surface-based morphometric analysis in 34 CON, 46 BS, and 39 UHR to examine between-group differences in CV, CSA, and CT vertex-wise across the whole cortex. Compared with BS and CON, UHR individuals presented increased CV in frontal and parietal regions, which was driven by larger CSA. These groups did not differ in CT. Yet, at-risk subjects who later developed schizophrenia showed thinning in the occipital cortex. Furthermore, BS presented increased CSA compared with CON. Our results suggest that volumetric differences in UHR subjects are driven by CSA while CV loss in converters seems to be based on cortical thinning. We attribute the larger CSA in UHR to aberrant pruning representing a vulnerability to develop psychotic symptoms reflected in different levels of vulnerability for BS and UHR, and cortical thinning to a presumably stress-related cortical decomposition

Triple Network Model Dynamically Revisited: Lower Salience Network State Switching in Pre-psychosis

Emerging evidence has attributed altered network coordination between the default mode, central executive, and salience networks (DMN/CEN/SAL) to disturbances seen in schizophrenia, but little is known for at-risk psychosis stages. Moreover, pinpointing impairments in specific network-to-network interactions, although essential to resolve possibly distinct harbingers of conversion to clinically diagnosed schizophrenia, remains particularly challenging. We addressed this by a dynamic approach to functional connectivity, where right anterior insula brain interactions were examined through co-activation pattern (CAP) analysis. We utilized resting-state fMRI in 19 subjects suffering from subthreshold delusions and hallucinations (UHR), 28 at-risk for psychosis with basic symptoms describing only self-experienced subclinical disturbances (BS), and 29 healthy controls (CTR) matched for age, gender, handedness, and intelligence. We extracted the most recurring CAPs, compared their relative occurrence and average dwell time to probe their temporal expression, and quantified occurrence balance to assess the putative loss of competing relationships. Our findings substantiate the pivotal role of the right anterior insula in governing CEN-to-DMN transitions, which appear dysfunctional prior to the onset of psychosis, especially when first attenuated psychotic symptoms occur. In UHR subjects, it is longer active in concert with the DMN and there is a loss of competition between a SAL/DMN state, and a state with insula/CEN activation paralleled by DMN deactivation. These features suggest that abnormal network switching disrupts one's capacity to distinguish between the internal world and external environment, which is accompanied by inflexibility and an excessive awareness to internal processes reflected by prolonged expression of the right anterior insula-default mode co-activation pattern

Adaptive changes in sensorimotor processing in patients with acute low back pain

In low back pain (LBP), primary care and secondary prevention of recurrent and persistent LBP are not always successful. Enhanced understanding of neural mechanisms of sensorimotor processing and pain modulation in patients with acute LBP is mandatory. This explorative fMRI study investigated sensorimotor processing due to mechanosensory stimulation of the lumbar spine. We studied 19 adult patients with acute LBP (< 4 weeks of an acute episode) and 23 healthy controls. On a numeric rating scale, patients reported moderate mean pain intensity of 4.5 out of 10, while LBP-associated disability indicated mild mean disability. The event-related fMRI analysis yielded no between-group differences. However, the computation of functional connectivity resulted in adaptive changes in networks involved in sensorimotor processing in the patient group: Connectivity strength was decreased in the salience and cerebellar networks but increased in the limbic and parahippocampal networks. Timewise, these results indicate that early connectivity changes might reflect adaptive physiological processes in an episode of acute LBP. These findings raise intriguing questions regarding their role in pain persistence and recurrences of LBP, particularly concerning the multiple consequences of acute LBP pain. Advanced understanding of neural mechanisms of processing non-painful mechanosensations in LBP may also improve therapeutic approaches.ISSN:2045-232

White matter microstructure and the clinical risk for psychosis: A diffusion tensor imaging study of individuals with basic symptoms and at ultra-high risk

BACKGROUND: Widespread white matter abnormalities are a frequent finding in chronic schizophrenia patients. More inconsistent results have been provided by the sparser literature on at-risk states for psychosis, i.e., emerging subclinical symptoms. However, considering risk as a homogenous construct, an approach of earlier studies, may impede our understanding of neuro-progression into psychosis. METHODS: An analysis was conducted of 3-Tesla MRI diffusion and symptom data from 112 individuals (mean age, 21.97 ± 4.19) within two at-risk paradigm subtypes, only basic symptoms (n = 43) and ultra-high risk (n = 37), and controls (n = 32). Between-group comparisons (involving three study groups and further split based on the subsequent transition to schizophrenia) of four diffusion-tensor-imaging-derived scalars were performed using voxelwise tract-based spatial statistics, followed by correlational analyses with Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes responses. RESULTS: Relative to controls, fractional anisotropy was lower in the splenium of the corpus callosum of ultra-high-risk individuals, but only before stringent multiple-testing correction, and negatively correlated with General Symptom severity among at-risk individuals. At-risk participants who transitioned to schizophrenia within 3 years, compared to those that did not transition, had more severe WM differences in fractional anisotropy and radial diffusivity (particularly in the corpus callosum, anterior corona radiata, and motor/sensory tracts), which were even more extensive compared to healthy controls. CONCLUSIONS: These findings align with the subclinical symptom presentation and more extensive disruptions in converters, suggestive of severity-related demyelination or axonal pathology. Fine-grained but detectable differences among ultra-high-risk subjects (i.e., with brief limited intermittent and/or attenuated psychotic symptoms) point to the splenium as a discrete site of emerging psychopathology, while basic symptoms alone were not associated with altered fractional anisotropy

Making MR Imaging Child's Play - Pediatric Neuroimaging Protocol, Guidelines and Procedure

Within the last decade there has been an increase in the use of structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate the neural basis of human perception, cognition and behavior 1, 2. Moreover, this non-invasive imaging method has grown into a tool for clinicians and researchers to explore typical and atypical brain development. Although advances in neuroimaging tools and techniques are apparent, (f)MRI in young pediatric populations remains relatively infrequent 2. Practical as well as technical challenges when imaging children present clinicians and research teams with a unique set of problems 3, 2. To name just a few, the child participants are challenged by a need for motivation, alertness and cooperation. Anxiety may be an additional factor to be addressed. Researchers or clinicians need to consider time constraints, movement restriction, scanner background noise and unfamiliarity with the MR scanner environment2,4-10. A progressive use of functional and structural neuroimaging in younger age groups, however, could further add to our understanding of brain development. As an example, several research groups are currently working towards early detection of developmental disorders, potentially even before children present associated behavioral characteristics e.g.11. Various strategies and techniques have been reported as a means to ensure comfort and cooperation of young children during neuroimaging sessions. Play therapy 12, behavioral approaches 13, 14,15, 16-18 and simulation 19, the use of mock scanner areas 20,21, basic relaxation 22 and a combination of these techniques 23 have all been shown to improve the participant's compliance and thus MRI data quality. Even more importantly, these strategies have proven to increase the comfort of families and children involved 12. One of the main advances of such techniques for the clinical practice is the possibility of avoiding sedation or general anesthesia (GA) as a way to manage children's compliance during MR imaging sessions 19,20. In the current video report, we present a pediatric neuroimaging protocol with guidelines and procedures that have proven to be successful to date in young children

White matter microstructure and the clinical risk for psychosis: A diffusion tensor imaging study of individuals with basic symptoms and at ultra-high risk

Background: Widespread white matter abnormalities are a frequent finding in chronic schizophrenia patients. More inconsistent results have been provided by the sparser literature on at-risk states for psychosis, i.e., emerging subclinical symptoms. However, considering risk as a homogenous construct, an approach of earlier studies, may impede our understanding of neuro-progression into psychosis. Methods: An analysis was conducted of 3-Tesla MRI diffusion and symptom data from 112 individuals (mean age, 21.97 ± 4.19) within two at-risk paradigm subtypes, only basic symptoms (n = 43) and ultra-high risk (n = 37), and controls (n = 32). Between-group comparisons (involving three study groups and further split based on the subsequent transition to schizophrenia) of four diffusion-tensor-imaging-derived scalars were performed using voxelwise tract-based spatial statistics, followed by correlational analyses with Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes responses. Results: Relative to controls, fractional anisotropy was lower in the splenium of the corpus callosum of ultra-high-risk individuals, but only before stringent multiple-testing correction, and negatively correlated with General Symptom severity among at-risk individuals. At-risk participants who transitioned to schizophrenia within 3 years, compared to those that did not transition, had more severe WM differences in fractional anisotropy and radial diffusivity (particularly in the corpus callosum, anterior corona radiata, and motor/sensory tracts), which were even more extensive compared to healthy controls. Conclusions: These findings align with the subclinical symptom presentation and more extensive disruptions in converters, suggestive of severity-related demyelination or axonal pathology. Fine-grained but detectable differences among ultra-high-risk subjects (i.e., with brief limited intermittent and/or attenuated psychotic symptoms) point to the splenium as a discrete site of emerging psychopathology, while basic symptoms alone were not associated with altered fractional anisotropy.ISSN:2213-158