Updated Long-Term Projections for Social Security

[Excerpt] The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regularly prepares long-term projections of the future paths of revenues and outlays for the Social Security program. This latest report presents projections for the 75-year period from 2008 through 2082. (All years referred to in this report are calendar years.) The projections differ somewhat from earlier results because of newly available programmatic and economic data, updated assumptions about future demographic and economic trends, and improvements in CBO’s models. Such long-term projections are necessarily uncertain; nevertheless, the general conclusions presented here hold true under a wide range of assumptions

The Effects of a Minimum-Wage Increase on Employment and Family Income

[Excerpt] Increasing the minimum wage would have two principal effects on low-wage workers. Most of them would receive higher pay that would increase their family’s income, and some of those families would see their income rise above the federal poverty threshold. But some jobs for low-wage workers would probably be eliminated, the income of most workers who became jobless would fall substantially, and the share of low-wage workers who were employed would probably fall slightly

Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output from October 2011 Through December 2011

[Excerpt] The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) contains provisions that are intended to boost economic activity and employment in the United States. Section 1512(e) of the law requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to comment on reports filed by recipients of ARRA funding that detail the number of jobs funded through their activities. This CBO report fulfills that requirement. It also provides CBO’s estimates of ARRA’s overall impact on employment and economic output in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2011, as well as over the entire period since February 2009. Those estimates—which CBO considers more comprehensive than the recipients’ reports—are based on evidence from similar policies enacted in the past and on the results of various economic models

Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output From April 2010 Through June 2010

[Excerpt] The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) contains provisions that are intended to boost economic activity and employment in the United States. Section 1512(e) of the law requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to comment on reports filed by recipients of ARRA funding that detail the number of jobs funded through their activities. This CBO report fulfills that requirement. It also provides CBO’s estimates of ARRA’s overall impact on employment and economic output in the second quarter of calendar year 2010. Those estimates—which CBO considers more comprehensive than the recipients’ reports—are based on evidence from similar policies enacted in the past and on the results of various economic models

Small Firms, Employment, and Federal Policy

[Excerpt] It is widely believed that small firms promote job growth. In fact, small firms both create and eliminate far more jobs than large firms do. On balance, they account for a disproportionate share of net job growth—however, that greater net growth is driven primarily by the creation of new small firms, frequently referred to as start-ups, rather than by the expansion of mature small firms. The greater net job-creation rates associated with new small firms could motivate lawmakers to consider supporting such firms through various policy initiatives. However, policies specifically favoring small firms have both advantages and disadvantages. For instance, policies designed to prevent discrimination or reduce pollution would probably have smaller adverse effects on employment if they exempted small firms in those cases where compliance was particularly costly for small firms. Conversely, some policies CBO has examined that would increase employment, such as reducing payroll taxes for firms that hire additional workers, would be less cost-effective if they were restricted to small firms. Under current federal laws and regulations, small firms already receive more favorable treatment than large firms do in many areas. For example, certain provisions of the tax code relating to capital gains and the expensing of capital investments favor small firms. The Small Business Administration (SBA) helps small firms obtain loans. And many regulatory policies, such as those prescribed by the Family and Medical Leave Act of 1993, include exemptions for small firms. Because further efforts to favor small firms may shift employment away from large firms in an inefficient manner, broadly targeted policies may spur total employment more effectively

Unemployment Insurance Benefits and Family Income of the Unemployed

[Excerpt] The unemployment insurance (UI) program provides a weekly benefit to qualified workers who lose their job and are actively seeking work. The amount of that benefit is based in part on a worker’s past earnings. The composition of the worker’s family and the income of the family as a whole are not generally taken into account. Nevertheless, the worker’s whole family is likely to be affected both by the spell of unemployment itself and by the support that the UI benefit provides. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) examined the role of UI benefits in supporting the income of families in which at least one person was unemployed at some point in 2009. The analysis addressed how that role varied with the amount of family income and the number of weeks of unemployment for all family members. CBO also examined how the poverty rate and related indicators of financial hardship would have differed in the absence of the UI program

How Slower Growth in the Labor Force Could Affect the Return on Capital

[Excerpt] The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) produces regular reports on the state of the U.S. economy as well as 10-year and long-term projections of the nation’s budget and economic outlook. In those analyses, CBO examines a range of developments that could have short- or longer-term consequences for the budget and the economy. In the decades to come, one such development will be a slowing of the rate of growth of the labor force. That projected slowdown is expected to occur because of lower fertility rates, the leveling off of a sizable increase in women’s labor force participation, and the aging and retirement of large numbers of baby boomers. Although slower growth in the workforce might affect the U.S. economy in many ways, this background paper focuses on what could happen in just one area: the rate of return paid on assets such as stocks and bonds. A number of theoretical models and simulations suggest that slower growth in the supply of labor could lead to lower rates of return, although that effect could be offset by rising budget deficits, capital outflows, or other factors. A decline in rates of return could have a significant effect on the federal budget through its impact on interest payments. In addition, a shift in the rate of return (and related shifts in wages) would alter the long-term outlook for the Social Security program

Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output in 2013

[Excerpt] The effects of ARRA on output peaked in the first half of 2010 and have since diminished, CBO estimates. The effects of ARRA on employment are estimated to lag slightly behind the effects on output; CBO estimates that the employment effects began to wane at the end of 2010 and continued to do so through 2013. Although CBO has examined data on output and employment during the period since ARRA’s enactment, those data are not as helpful in determining ARRA’s economic effects as might be supposed because isolating the effects would require knowing what path the economy would have taken in the absence of the law. Because that path cannot be observed, the new data add only limited information about ARRA’s impact

Private-Sector Mandates in Federal Legislation

Federal laws and regulations sometimes require non-federal entities to expend their resources to carry out national policies. The Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (UMRA), enacted as Public Law 104-4, defines many of those requirements as federal mandates. The law aims to ensure that Members of Congress receive information about the potential effects of mandates as they consider proposed legislation and that federal agencies take information about mandates into account as they weigh proposed regulations. To that end, UMRA requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), at certain points in the legislative process, to assess the cost of mandates that would apply to state, local, and tribal governments or to the private sector; it also requires most federal agencies to estimate those costs and other effects in the course of promulgating regulations to implement such mandates. This report describes CBO’s role in assessing the impact of private-sector mandates during the legislative process and provides information about the private-sector mandates that have become law during the past decade

A Guide to Understanding the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

Although the federal government\u27s Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) has been providing pension insurance for nearly 30 years, the agency\u27s financial situation has been particularly volatile over the past decade and has deteriorated significantly during the past several years. At the end of 2000, the total value of assets held by PBGC exceeded the estimated present value of its liabilities by $10 billion. But by the end of 2004, the agency\u27s estimated liabilities were$23.5 billion more than the value of its assets. As attention focuses on that situation, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has prepared this paper, which aims to provide a basic understanding of federal pension insurance, the operations of PBGC, and the financial condition of and the outlook for the agency over the next 10 years. In accordance with CBO\u27s mandate to provide impartial analysis, the paper makes no recommendations