Multinational Firms and New Protectionisms

Recent initiatives to hold back cross-border mergers and acquisitions for ‘strategic’ reasons have made headline news. We discuss whether the initiatives may mark the start of a new protectionist era. We argue that standard globalization indicators show no such signs. However, an increasing divergence of incomes and increased insecurity might raise resistance against the globalization process. We discuss the benefits of globalization benefits in terms of lower prices for consumers, a greater variety of available products, lower risks, and higher economic growth. But we also outline the risks in terms of greater inequalities and greater need for flexibility. Protectionism is a double-edged sword. Many historic episodes show that the return to protectionism did significantly more harm in terms of reduced growth than generating benefits in terms of greater stability and smaller income differentials.

Regional Origins of Employment Volatility: Evidence from German States

Openness for trade can have positive welfare effects in terms of higher growth. But increased openness may also increase uncertainty through a higher volatility of employment. We use regional data from Germany to test whether openness for trade has an impact on volatility. We find a downward trend in the unconditional volatility of employment, which has been interrupted by the re-unification period. Patterns are similar to those for output volatility. The conditional volatility of employment, measuring idiosyncratic developments across states, in contrast, has remained fairly unchanged. In contrast to evidence for the US, we do not find evidence for a significant link between employment volatility and trade openness.employment volatility, trade openness, regional labour markets

Exchange rates and FDI: Goods versus capital market frictions

Economic theory provides two main explanations why changes in exchange rates can affect foreign direct investment (FDI). According to a first explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if there are information frictions on capital markets and if the investment by firms depends on their net worth (capital market friction hypothesis). According to a second explanation, FDI reacts to exchange rate changes if output and factor markets are segmented, and if firm-specific assets are important (goods market friction hypothesis). We provide a unified theoretical framework of the two explanations and test the model using German sectoral data derived from detailed firm-level data. We find greater support for the goods market friction hypothesis. --FDI,exchange rates,net worth effects,multinational firms

International Bank Portfolios: Short- and Long-Run Responses to the Business Cycle

International bank portfolios constitute a large component of international country portfolios. Yet, their response to macroeconomic conditions and their impact on the international transmission of business cycles developments remains largely unexplored. We use a novel dataset on banks’ international portfolios to answer three questions. First, what are the long-run determinants of banks’ international portfolios? Second, how do banks’ international portfolios adjust to short-run macroeconomic developments? Third, does the speed of adjustment change with the degree of financial integration? We provide evidence of significant long-run cointegration relationships between cross-border assets and liabilities of banks and key macroeconomic variables. Both, the long-run determinants of banks’ international portfolios as well as the short-run dynamics show a significant degree of heterogeneity across countries and, to some extent, over time. Gravitytype variables help explaining differences in the speed of adjustment to new equilibria.international bank portfolios, macroeconomic developments, transmission channels

Business cycles and FDI: evidence from German sectoral data

Globalization has effected business cycle developments in OECD countries and has increased activities of firms across national borders. This paper analyzes whether these two developments are linked. We use a new firm-level dataset on the foreign activities of German firms to test whether foreign activities are affected by business cycle developments. We aggregate the data by the sector of the reporting firm, the sector of the foreign affiliate, and the host country. Data are annual and cover the period 1989-2002. We find that German outward FDI increases in response to positive cyclical developments abroad and in response to a real depreciation of the domestic currency. --Business cycles,multinational activity,FDI