Uncertainty quantification in graph-based classification of high dimensional data

Classification of high dimensional data finds wide-ranging applications. In many of these applications equipping the resulting classification with a measure of uncertainty may be as important as the classification itself. In this paper we introduce, develop algorithms for, and investigate the properties of, a variety of Bayesian models for the task of binary classification; via the posterior distribution on the classification labels, these methods automatically give measures of uncertainty. The methods are all based around the graph formulation of semi-supervised learning. We provide a unified framework which brings together a variety of methods which have been introduced in different communities within the mathematical sciences. We study probit classification in the graph-based setting, generalize the level-set method for Bayesian inverse problems to the classification setting, and generalize the Ginzburg-Landau optimization-based classifier to a Bayesian setting; we also show that the probit and level set approaches are natural relaxations of the harmonic function approach introduced in [Zhu et al 2003]. We introduce efficient numerical methods, suited to large data-sets, for both MCMC-based sampling as well as gradient-based MAP estimation. Through numerical experiments we study classification accuracy and uncertainty quantification for our models; these experiments showcase a suite of datasets commonly used to evaluate graph-based semi-supervised learning algorithms.Comment: 33 pages, 14 figure

Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years. The papers cover all the topics contemplated in the European Geosciences Union (EGU) Division on Natural Hazards including dissemination, education, outreach and teaching. The selected articles thus represent excellent scientific contributions in the major areas of natural hazards and risks and helped NHESS to become an exceptionally strong journal representing interdisciplinary areas of natural hazards and risks. At its 20th anniversary, we are proud that NHESS is not only used by scientists to disseminate research results and novel ideas but also by practitioners and decision-makers to present effective solutions and strategies for sustainable disaster risk reduction

Science with the Cherenkov Telescope Array

The Cherenkov Telescope Array, CTA, will be the major global observatory for very high energy gamma-ray astronomy over the next decade and beyond. The scientific potential of CTA is extremely broad: from understanding the role of relativistic cosmic particles to the search for dark matter. CTA is an explorer of the extreme universe, probing environments from the immediate neighbourhood of black holes to cosmic voids on the largest scales. Covering a huge range in photon energy from 20 GeV to 300 TeV, CTA will improve on all aspects of performance with respect to current instruments. The observatory will operate arrays on sites in both hemispheres to provide full sky coverage and will hence maximize the potential for the rarest phenomena such as very nearby supernovae, gamma-ray bursts or gravitational wave transients. With 99 telescopes on the southern site and 19 telescopes on the northern site, flexible operation will be possible, with sub-arrays available for specific tasks. CTA will have important synergies with many of the new generation of major astronomical and astroparticle observatories. Multi-wavelength and multi-messenger approaches combining CTA data with those from other instruments will lead to a deeper understanding of the broad-band non-thermal properties of target sources. The CTA Observatory will be operated as an open, proposal-driven observatory, with all data available on a public archive after a pre-defined proprietary period. Scientists from institutions worldwide have combined together to form the CTA Consortium. This Consortium has prepared a proposal for a Core Programme of highly motivated observations. The programme, encompassing approximately 40% of the available observing time over the first ten years of CTA operation, is made up of individual Key Science Projects (KSPs), which are presented in this document

Science with the Cherenkov Telescope Array

The Cherenkov Telescope Array, CTA, will be the major global observatory for very high energy gamma-ray astronomy over the next decade and beyond. The scientific potential of CTA is extremely broad: from understanding the role of relativistic cosmic particles to the search for dark matter. CTA is an explorer of the extreme universe, probing environments from the immediate neighbourhood of black holes to cosmic voids on the largest scales. Covering a huge range in photon energy from 20 GeV to 300 TeV, CTA will improve on all aspects of performance with respect to current instruments. The observatory will operate arrays on sites in both hemispheres to provide full sky coverage and will hence maximize the potential for the rarest phenomena such as very nearby supernovae, gamma-ray bursts or gravitational wave transients. With 99 telescopes on the southern site and 19 telescopes on the northern site, flexible operation will be possible, with sub-arrays available for specific tasks. CTA will have important synergies with many of the new generation of major astronomical and astroparticle observatories. Multi-wavelength and multi-messenger approaches combining CTA data with those from other instruments will lead to a deeper understanding of the broad-band non-thermal properties of target sources. The CTA Observatory will be operated as an open, proposal-driven observatory, with all data available on a public archive after a pre-defined proprietary period. Scientists from institutions worldwide have combined together to form the CTA Consortium. This Consortium has prepared a proposal for a Core Programme of highly motivated observations. The programme, encompassing approximately 40% of the available observing time over the first ten years of CTA operation, is made up of individual Key Science Projects (KSPs), which are presented in this document