Early changes in bone mineral density measured by digital X-ray radiogrammetry predict up to 20 years radiological outcome in rheumatoid arthritis

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: Change in bone mineral density (BMD) in the hand, as evaluated by digital X-ray radiogrammetry (DXR) of the II-IV metacarpal bones, has been suggested to predict future joint damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). This study's objective was to investigate if DXR-BMD loss early in the disease predicts development of joint damage in RA patients followed for up to 20 years. METHODS: 183 patients (115 women and 68 men) with early RA (mean disease duration 11 months) included from 1985 to 1989 were followed prospectively (the Lund early RA cohort). Clinical and functional measures were assessed yearly. Joint damage was evaluated according to the Larsen score on radiographs of hands and feet taken in years 0 to 5, 10, 15 and 20. These radiographs were digitized and BMD of the II-IV metacarpal bones was evaluated by DXR (Sectra, Linkoping. Sweden). Early DXR-BMD change rate (bone loss) per year calculated from the first 2 radiographs taken on average 9 months apart (SD 4.8) were available for 135 patients. Mean values of right and left hand were used. RESULTS: Mean early DXR-BMD loss during the first year calculated was -0.023 g/cm2 (SD 0.025). Patients with marked bone loss, i.e. early DXR-BMD loss above the median for the group, had significantly worse progression of joint damage at all examinations during the 20-year period. CONCLUSIONS: Early DXR-BMD progression rate predicted development of joint damage evaluated according to Larsen at year one and further onwards up to 20 years in this cohort of early RA patients

Relationship between time-integrated disease activity estimated by DAS28-CRP and radiographic progression of anatomical damage in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The main aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between persistent disease activity and radiographic progression of joint damage in early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Forty-eight patients with active ERA was assessed every 3 months for disease activity for 3 years. Radiographic damage was measured by the Sharp/van der Heijde method (SHS). The cumulative inflammatory burden was estimated by the time-integrated values (area under the curve-AUC) of Disease Activity Score 28 joint based on C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) in rapid progressors versus non-progressors. Bland and Altman's 95% limits of agreement method were used to estimate the smallest detectable difference (SDD) of radiographic progression. The relationship between clinical and laboratory predictors of radiographic progression and their interactions with time was analysed by logistic regression model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After 3-years of follow-up, radiographic progression was observed in 54.2% (95%CI: 39.8% to 67.5%) of patients and SDD was 9.5 for total SHS. The percentage of patients with erosive disease increased from 33.3% at baseline to 76% at 36 months. The total SHS of the progressors worsened from a median (interquartile range) of 18.5 (15-20) at baseline to 38.5 (34-42) after 3 years (p < 0.0001) whereas non-progressors worsened from a median of 14.5 (13-20) at baseline to 22.5 (20-30) after 3 years (p < 0.001). In the regression model, time-integrated values of DAS28-CRP and anti-CCP positivity have the highest positive predictive value for progression (both at level of p < 0.0001). Radiographic progression was also predicted by a positive IgM-RF (p0.0009), and a high baseline joint damage (p = 0.0044).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These data indicate that the level of disease activity, as measured by time-integrated DAS28-CRP, anti-CCP and IgM-RF positivity and a high baseline joint damage, affects subsequent progression of radiographic damage in ERA.</p

How the type of risk reduction influences required sample sizes in randomised clinical trials

To increase change between groups, randomised clinical trials (RCT) often include patients with high risk for a particular outcome, by inclusion criteria that select predictors for that outcome. This increases the statistical power, and fewer patients are required for that RCT. The way in which patient selection influences the power, and thus sample size required, depends on how an intervention reduces the individual risk: by an absolute or relative risk reduction mode

Radiography as primary outcome in rheumatoid arthritis: acceptable sample sizes for trials with 3 months' follow up

Objectives: To investigate whether plain radiographs can show changes in joint damage due to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) within 3 months. Methods: 188 film pairs taken with a 3 month interval were evaluated. They were scored with (chronological) and without (paired) knowledge of the sequence of the films according to the Sharp/van der Heijde method. Changes in joint damage were analysed on a group and an individual level for different subsets of patients. Sample sizes required to detect statistically and clinically significant differences were estimated based on the percentages of patients with progression larger than the smallest detectable change (SDC). Results: Changes in joint damage were seen by both the chronological and the paired scoring method. The percentage of patients with progression of joint damage larger than the corresponding SDCs (1.7 and 2.4) varied in the subsets from 18% to 64% if based on the chronological change-scores and from 9% to 36% using paired change-scores. Acceptable sample size estimates were seen in several subsets, depending on (a) how the investigated drug would reduce the individual risk of progression of joint damage (by an absolute or a relative risk reduction model); (b) how damage was scored (chronological or paired); (c) the baseline risk; and (d) whether a two sided or one sided test would be used. Conclusions: Changes in joint damage due to RA can be detected reliably already within 3 months. This finding can be used to plan short term, randomised controlled trials with radiographic progression as primary outcome