Uncertainty quantification for severe-accident reactor modelling: Set-up and first results of the Horizon-2020 project MUSA

The current Horizon-2020 project on “Management and Uncertainties of Severe Accidents (MUSA)” aims at applying Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in the modelling of Severe Accidents (SA), particularly in predicting the radiological source term of mitigated and unmitigated accident reactor scenarios. A selected number of severe accident sequences of different nuclear power plant designs (e.g. PWR, VVER, and BWR) are addressed. The application of the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodology to reactor accident scenarios requires a number of key steps: (i) the selection of severe accident sequences for each reactor design; (ii) the development of a reference input model for the specific design and SA-code; (iii) the definition of the figures of merit for the UQ-analysis; (iv) the selection of a list of uncertain model parameters to be investigated; (v) the choice of a statistical tool to propagate input deck uncertainties; (vi) the selection of a feasible approach (i.e., Monte Carlo versus order statistics) to address UQ by using a statistical software (i.e., UQ-tools DAKOTA, SUSA, URANIE, etc.); (vii) the running phase to achieve a high number of successful realizations with the SA codes; and, (viii) the statistical evaluation of the results (i.e., sensitivity analysis). This paper describes each of these steps such as settled in the reactor applications work package of the EU MUSA project and pays particular attention to the choices made by partners. It presents preliminary results also with an emphasis on the major challenges posed by BEPU application in the field of SA analysis

Substrate Effect on the High Temperature Oxidation Behavior of a Pt-modified Aluminide Coating. Part II: Long-term Cyclic-oxidation Tests at 1,050 C

This second part of a two-part study is devoted to the effect of the substrate on the long-term, cyclic-oxidation behavior at 1,050 C of RT22 industrial coating deposited on three Ni-base superalloys (CMSX-4, SCB, and IN792). Cyclicoxidation tests at 1,050 C were performed for up to 58 cycles of 300 h (i.e., 17,400 h of heating at 1,050 C). For such test conditions, interdiffusion between the coating and its substrate plays a larger role in the damage process of the system than during isothermal tests at 900, 1,050, and 1,150 C for 100 h and cyclicoxidation tests at 900 C which were reported in part I [N. Vialas and D. Monceau, Oxidation of Metals 66, 155 (2006)]. The results reported in the present paper show that interdiffusion has an important effect on long-term, cyclic-oxidation resistance, so that clear differences can be observed between different superalloys protected with the same aluminide coating. Net-mass-change (NMC) curves show the better cyclic-oxidation behavior of the RT22/IN792 system whereas uncoated CMSX-4 has the best cyclic-oxidation resistance among the three superalloys studied. The importance of the interactions between the superalloy substrate and its coating is then demonstrated. The effect of the substrate on cyclic-oxidation behavior is related to the extent of oxide scale spalling and to the evolution of microstructural features of the coatings tested. SEM examinations of coating surfaces and cross sections show that spalling on RT22/CMSX-4 and RT22/SCB was favored by the presence of deep voids localized at the coating/oxide interface. Some of these voids can act as nucleation sites for scale spallation. The formation of such interfacial voids was always observed when the b to c0 transformation leads to the formation of a two-phase b/c0 layer in contact with the alumina scale. On the contrary, no voids were observed in RT22/IN792, since this b to c0 transformation occurs gradually by an inward transformation of b leading to the formation of a continuous layer of c0 phase, parallel to the metal/scale interface

Noise Pollution Filters Bird Communities Based on Vocal Frequency

BACKGROUND: Human-generated noise pollution now permeates natural habitats worldwide, presenting evolutionarily novel acoustic conditions unprecedented to most landscapes. These acoustics not only harm humans, but threaten wildlife, and especially birds, via changes to species densities, foraging behavior, reproductive success, and predator-prey interactions. Explanations for negative effects of noise on birds include disruption of acoustic communication through energetic masking, potentially forcing species that rely upon acoustic communication to abandon otherwise suitable areas. However, this hypothesis has not been adequately tested because confounding stimuli often co-vary with noise and are difficult to separate from noise exposure. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a natural experiment that controls for confounding stimuli, we evaluate whether species vocal features or urban-tolerance classifications explain their responses to noise measured through habitat use. Two data sets representing nesting and abundance responses reveal that noise filters bird communities nonrandomly. Signal duration and urban tolerance failed to explain species-specific responses, but birds with low-frequency signals that are more susceptible to masking from noise avoided noisy areas and birds with higher frequency vocalizations remained. Signal frequency was also negatively correlated with body mass, suggesting that larger birds may be more sensitive to noise due to the link between body size and vocal frequency. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings suggest that acoustic masking by noise may be a strong selective force shaping the ecology of birds worldwide. Larger birds with lower frequency signals may be excluded from noisy areas, whereas smaller species persist via transmission of higher frequency signals. We discuss our findings as they relate to interspecific relationships among body size, vocal amplitude and frequency and suggest that they are immediately relevant to the global problem of increases in noise by providing critical insight as to which species traits influence tolerance of these novel acoustics

Diversity in sound pressure levels and estimated active space of resident killer whale vocalizations

Author Posting. © The Author, 2005. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Comparative Physiology A: Sensory, Neural, and Behavioral Physiology 192 (2006): 449-459, doi:10.1007/s00359-005-0085-2.Signal source intensity and detection range, which integrates source intensity with propagation loss, background noise and receiver hearing abilities, are important characteristics of communication signals. Apparent source levels were calculated for 819 pulsed calls and 24 whistles produced by free-ranging resident killer whales by triangulating the angles-of-arrival of sounds on two beamforming arrays towed in series. Levels in the 1-20 kHz band ranged from 131-168 dB re 1μPa @1m, with differences in the means of different sound classes (whistles: 140.2 ± 4.1 dB; variable calls: 146.6 ± 6.6 dB; stereotyped calls: 152.6 ± 5.9 dB), and among stereotyped call types. Repertoire diversity carried through to estimates of active space, with “long-range” stereotyped calls all containing overlapping, independently-modulated high-frequency components (mean estimated active space of 10-16km in sea state zero) and “short-range” sounds (5-9 km) included all stereotyped calls without a high-frequency component, whistles, and variable calls. Short-range sounds are reported to be more common during social and resting behaviors, while long-range stereotyped calls predominate in dispersed travel and foraging behaviors. These results suggest that variability in sound pressure levels may reflect diverse social and ecological functions of the acoustic repertoire of killer whales.Funding was provided by WHOI’s Ocean Ventures Fund and Rinehart Coastal Research Center and a Royal Society fellowship

Intra- and inter-individual genetic differences in gene expression

Genetic variation is known to influence the amount of mRNA produced by a gene. Given that the molecular machines control mRNA levels of multiple genes, we expect genetic variation in the components of these machines would influence multiple genes in a similar fashion. In this study we show that this assumption is correct by using correlation of mRNA levels measured independently in the brain, kidney or liver of multiple, genetically typed, mice strains to detect shared genetic influences. These correlating groups of genes (CGG) have collective properties that account for 40-90% of the variability of their constituent genes and in some cases, but not all, contain genes encoding functionally related proteins. Critically, we show that the genetic influences are essentially tissue specific and consequently the same genetic variations in the one animal may up-regulate a CGG in one tissue but down-regulate the same CGG in a second tissue. We further show similarly paradoxical behaviour of CGGs within the same tissues of different individuals. The implication of this study is that this class of genetic variation can result in complex inter- and intra-individual and tissue differences and that this will create substantial challenges to the investigation of phenotypic outcomes, particularly in humans where multiple tissues are not readily available.

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Habitat-related birdsong divergence: a multi-level study on the influence of territory density and ambient noise in European blackbirds

Song plays an important role in avian communication and acoustic variation is important at both the individual and population level. Habitat-related variation between populations in particular can reflect adaptations to the environment accumulated over generations, but this may not always be the case. In this study, we test whether variation between individuals matches local conditions with respect to noise level and territory density to examine whether short-term flexibility could contribute to song divergence at the population level. We conducted a case study on an urban and forest population of the European blackbird and show divergence at the population level (i.e. across habitats) in blackbird song, anthropogenic noise level and territory density. Unlike in several other species, we found a lack of any correlation at the individual level (i.e. across individuals) between song features and ambient noise. This suggests species-specific causal explanations for noise-dependent song differentiation which are likely associated with variation in song-copying behaviour or feedback constraints related to variable singing styles. On the other hand, we found that at the level of individual territories, temporal features, but not spectral ones, are correlated to territory density and seasonality. This suggests that short-term individual variation can indeed contribute to habitat-dependent divergence at the population level. As this may undermine the potential role for song as a population marker, we conclude that more investigations on individual song flexibility are required for a better understanding of the impact of population-level song divergence on hybridisation and speciation

Vocal Learning and Auditory-Vocal Feedback

Vocal learning is usually studied in songbirds and humans, species that can form auditory templates by listening to acoustic models and then learn to vocalize to match the template. Most other species are thought to develop vocalizations without auditory feedback. However, auditory input influences the acoustic structure of vocalizations in a broad distribution of birds and mammals. Vocalizations are dened here as sounds generated by forcing air past vibrating membranes. A vocal motor program may generate vocalizations such as crying or laughter, but auditory feedback may be required for matching precise acoustic features of vocalizations. This chapter discriminates limited vocal learning, which uses auditory input to fine-tune acoustic features of an inherited auditory template, from complex vocal learning, in which novel sounds are learned by matching a learned auditory template. Two or three songbird taxa and four or ve mammalian taxa are known for complex vocal learning. A broader range of mammals converge in the acoustic structure of vocalizations when in socially interacting groups, which qualifies as limited vocal learning. All birds and mammals tested use auditory-vocal feedback to adjust their vocalizations to compensate for the effects of noise, and many species modulate their signals as the costs and benefits of communicating vary. This chapter asks whether some auditory-vocal feedback may have provided neural substrates for the evolution of vocal learning. Progress will require more precise definitions of different forms of vocal learning, broad comparative review of their presence and absence, and behavioral and neurobiological investigations into the mechanisms underlying the skills.PostprintPeer reviewe