Determinants of Rural Poverty in Post-War Mozambique: Evidence from a Household Survey and Implications for Government and Donor Policy

This research report analyses the welfare effects of rural household coping strategies in post-war Mozambique. In addition, it considers appropriate government and donor policies to assist poor, war-affected farm households. The report discusses the expected theoretical effects of war on smallholder labour, asset, and social capital endowments and thus on household welfare. In addition, it considers the effects of war on land use and market-participation decisions by households and the impact of these choices on post-war household welfare.

The effects of conflict on fertility in Rwanda

The aim of this paper is to study the short and long-term fertility effects of mass violent conflict on different population sub-groups. The authors pool three nationally representative demographic and health surveys from before and after the genocide in Rwanda, identifying conflict exposure of the survivors in multiple ways. The analysis finds a robust effect of genocide on fertility, with a strong replacement effect for lost children. Having lost siblings reduces fertility only in the short term. Most interesting is the continued importance of the institution of marriage in determining fertility and in reducing fertility for the large group of widows in Rwanda.Population Policies,Gender and Law,Population&Development,Post Conflict Reconstruction,Gender and Health

The Impact of Conflict and Fragility on Households: A Conceptual Framework with Reference to Widows

This paper analyses the transmission channels through which mass violent conflict and post-conflict fragility affect households. It does so by pointing out how a fragile environment impairs a household?s core functions, boundaries, and its choice of income generating activities. Furthermore, it proposes a tool to analyse the impact of conflict and fragility on groups of households. The paper advances our understanding of mass violent conflict and fragility and contributes to the literature on the economics of conflict and development in three ways: first, it identifies the important gaps in the current micro level literature on conflict. Second, it provides a consistent and systematic framework to address these gaps. Third, it applies the framework to war widows, one example of a conflict affected and often forgotten group that typically amounts to a large population share in post-conflict societies.violent conflict, poverty, widows, households

Enhancing the Private Sector Contribution to Post-War Recovery in Poor Countries

This paper analyses the duration and nature of post-war reconstruction in aid-dependent developing countries. Part I presents a comparative analysis, Part II discusses the post-war reconstruction in Nicaragua, and Part III analyses the case of Mozambique. The main findings are that post-war reconstruction, defined as obtaining external and internal balance and high per capita growth, is surprisingly difficult to obtain even under favourable political and economic conditions. The legacy of war is a key constraint on post-war growth, especially through the damaged commercial network, the loss of trust, and the weakening of market institutions. In addition, political uncertainty in the post-war period inhibits private sector investment and significantly reduces the peace dividend. This is worsened by inappropriate stabilisation policies. Aid policies should be modified for war and post-war economies to accelerate the reduction in foreign debt and to support small scale private producers, including those in the countryside. Military spending does not fall and social spending does not rise as quickly as is generally expected thus delaying a noticeable reduction in poverty. The clear sequencing but gradual implementation of government reforms, especially in the social sectors, is important in maintaining entitlements. Key victims of war, and especially of internal war, are civil and economic institutions. Their importance in post-war reconstruction has been underestimated and they should receive priority funding by donors and governments to accelerate post-war growth and poverty reduction.

Creating low skilled jobs by subsidizing market-contracted household work

The paper analyses the determinants of household work contracted in the German shadow economy. The German socio-economic household panel, which enumerates casual domestic employment, is used to estimate the demand for such household work. The regressors include regional wage rates, household income and several control variables for household composition. It is found that the demand for household work in the shadow economy is very income elastic. This suggests that targeted wage subsidies, linked to household work agencies, would be very effective in raising the legal demand for domestic help. A wage subsidy of 50% of wage costs could thus establish up to 500 000 new jobs for previously unemployed or non-working low skilled workers. The net fiscal costs of such a scheme are about 6.200 Euro per full-time job. In addition, society benefits from more law enforcement and from a raised female labour supply, especially by highly qualified mothers.

Selective Mortality During the Khmer Rouge Period in Cambodia

Aspects of the long-term demographic impact of genocide during the period of the Khmer Rouge (1975-79) in Cambodia are analyzed. Mortality data for siblings from the Cambodia Demographic and Health Survey in 2000 demonstrate that excess mortality was extremely high and heavily concentrated during 1974-80. The study also shows that mortality was highly selective during that period. Adult males were the most likely to die, indicating that violent death played a major role. Individuals with an urban or educated background were more likely to die. Mortality by religious background is also assessed. Infant and early childhood mortality was very high during the period and was as prevalent in urban areas and among children born to educated mothers as in rural areas and among the less educated. Copyright 2005 The Population Council, Inc..